US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2769

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, ROUND II:  CONSOLIDATING 
TAIWAN DEMOCRACY OR BACK DOOR TO INDEPENDENCE? 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2490 
 
Classified By:  AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (C) President Chen announced constitutional reform "Round 
Two" just hours after the National Assembly passed a 
constitutional amendment package on June 7.  This further 
constitutional "re-engineering" is intended to create a 
"timely, relevant and viable" constitution by 2008, when Chen 
steps down as President.  Pan-Blue opposition parties just as 
quickly rejected the proposal as too much too soon.  They 
also hinted suspicion of Chen's pro-independence intentions, 
although the June 7 amendments will make it much more 
difficult to ratify any, much less radical, constitutional 
amendments.  After an initial flurry of activity, Round Two 
has slowed to a quiet crawl in the face of Pan-Blue 
opposition and the reality of a more difficult constitutional 
amendment ratification process.  End Summary. 
 
Round Two:  Something for Everyone 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) At a banquet on June 7 celebrating passage that day 
of a constitutional amendment packet by the National Assembly 
(reftel), President Chen formally announced "Round Two" of 
constitutional reform.  Chen invited opposition parties and 
civil groups to join with the DPP to create a "timely, 
relevant and viable" constitution by the time he, Chen, steps 
down in 2008.  He pledged to avoid politically sensitive 
issues of name change, independence, territory, and 
sovereignty.  Chen called for a "bottom-up" campaign to 
"re-engineer" the constitution, announcing that he would 
create a bipartisan Constitutional Reform Commission with 
opposition and civil society participation.  Vice President 
Annette Lu the next day assured the press that President Chen 
would not dominate the commission, although DPP Deputy SecGen 
Yan Wan-chin told AIT that Chen would "of course" head the 
Commission. 
 
3.  (U) The Chen administration is couching the Second Round 
of constitutional reform as focused on good governance and 
consolidating Taiwan's young democracy.  The ingredients 
cover a broad spectrum designed to appeal to a large swath of 
Taiwan's population, including: 
 
-- Labor rights (association, bargaining, strikes) 
-- Aborigine rights 
-- Abolishing the provincial government (Note:  the 
provincial government was effectively eliminated in the 1999 
constitutional revisions. End note) 
-- Replacing Taiwan's 5- with a 3-branch government 
-- Deciding if Taiwan has a presidential or cabinet government 
-- Extending voting rights to 18 year olds 
-- Converting from a draft to a volunteer military. 
 
Presidential Office SecGen Yu Shyi-kun promised June 10 the 
Round Two campaign strategy would be announced in one week, a 
promise the government has not kept. 
Deepening Democracy, Building Good Governance 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Yeh Jiunn-rong, Minister in charge of the Research 
Development and Evaluation Commission (RDEC) and one of the 
architects of Chen's constitutional reforms, told AIT that 
Round Two is intended to deepen and consolidate Taiwan's 
young democratic institutions.  It focuses on the kind of 
governance issues that he has pioneered in the RDEC, 
including e-government and responsiveness to citizens. 
President Chen, he explained, hopes to leave, as part of his 
presidential legacy, an efficient government that is 
responsive and accountable to the voters and encourages 
citizen participation. 
 
5.  (C) The Chen administration, Yeh continued, is being 
careful to describe Round Two, which will create a new 
constitution by 2008, as "constitutional re-engineering" to 
reassure the public that it does not involve radical 
revisions.  The new constitutional amendment ratification 
threshold would in any event, Yeh noted, ensure moderation 
and the "middle way" (zhongyong).  The public face of Round 
Two, the Constitutional Reform Commission, will include a 
broad cross section of Taiwan society -- professionals, 
business, local representatives, political parties, 
legislators.  Yeh himself is a point man for constitutional 
reform in part because he is formally not a member of the DPP 
(although he was appointed a DPP member of the recent NA) and 
has close ties with many opposition leaders, including KMT 
Vice Chair P.K. Chiang (Chiang Ping-kun).  With the KMT "the 
biggest beneficiary" of the June 7 constitutional amendments, 
Yeh said, it should be possible to elicit KMT support for 
Round Two.  He particularly hoped that Ma Ying-jeou and Wang 
Jin-pyng would support phase two after the KMT Chair election 
on July 16. 
 
6.  (C) Noting that &We know Washington and Beijing are both 
carefully watching the constitutional reform issue," DPP 
Deputy SecGen Yan told AIT that the Chen government and the 
DPP will proceed cautiously and responsibly in order not to 
arouse concern.  To that end, continued Yan, who is 
responsible for constitutional reform for the party, the DPP 
will keep AIT informed as plans for constitutional reform 
move forward.  He is personally, however, very  skeptical of 
the chances for Round Two reforms, noting that further 
constitutional reforms will be extremely difficult under the 
June 7 constitutional amendments.  This skepticism has been 
echoed by senior DPP LY members. 
 
Pan-Blue Opposition Slows the Train 
----------------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party 
(PFP) were quick to reject Chen's proposal for a Second Round 
of constitutional revision.  KMT rejoined that the DPP 
government should focus on improving Taiwan's limping economy 
and implementing the new constitutional amendments.  PFP 
demanded that the constitution be protected and preserved, 
expressing concern over pro-independence implications of 
Round Two.  Since together the two "Pan-Blue" parties 
constitute a majority of the LY, their support is essential 
for achieving the three-fourths LY vote required for approval 
of constitutional amendments.  This high threshold, along 
with the second ratification step requiring approval by a 
majority of registered voters, means that only amendments 
with overwhelming political and public approval can run the 
ratification gauntlet. 
 
8. (C) A broad range of "Blue" and "Green" political leaders 
tell AIT that there is little chance the Round Two 
constitutional revisions can go forward.  DPP legislator Lin 
Cho-shui told the Director there is "no way" the Round Two 
amendments could pass because of the high ratification 
threshold and the complexity of the issues.  Professor Chu 
Yun-han, a constitutional specialist at National Taiwan 
University, told AIT that the raised ratification threshold 
would make it difficult, even insurmountable, for future 
constitutional amendments to gain ratification. 
 
9.  (U) Though Presidential Office SecGen Yu Shyi-kun 
informed the press June 14 that President Chen remains 
determined to complete Round Two of constitutional reform, 
there has been a visible slow-down in Chen Administration 
reform activity.  In his reference to the president's plan to 
create a Constitutional Reform Commission, Yu acknowledged 
there is no date or time table.  President Chen himself has 
raised the possibility over the past week of first 
establishing a private constitutional reform league as a 
"forum" for constitutional reform and to lobby for, educate 
and encourage Round Two reforms. 
 
Comment: Recognizing Reality 
---------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) President Chen moved quickly on Round Two in order 
to capitalize on the presumed momentum from the National 
Assembly only to find little momentum and lots of opposition 
to further constitutional revision.  The slowdown in Round 
Two rhetoric over the ensuing three weeks reflects a 
realization of, and attempt to deal with, the new, post-June 
7 constitutional reality.  The generally more pragmatic, less 
ideological DPP SecGen Yan Wan-chin told AIT that he is 
confident the long-term trend is in favor of Taiwanization 
and eventual constitutional revision.  This confidence, along 
with an awareness of the political sensitivities of further 
constitutional reform, particularly relative to Beijing and 
Washington, have for the time being instilled an element of 
caution within the Chen administration on the subject of 
constitutional reform. 
PAAL