US embassy cable - 05ALMATY2368

UNCLAS ALMATY 002368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE) 
ALSO FOR INR/REA (S. FEINBERG), INR/EC (J. KILIAN-KIVLER) 
ALSO FOR DRL/PHD (P. DAVIS, C. KUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: SENATE ELECTIONS SET FOR AUGUST 19 
 
 
1. Summary: Sixteen seats will be contested in the August 
19th Senate elections. A one-month nomination period 
commenced on June 18.  As candidates will be chosen 
indirectly by the Maslikhats (oblast-level, elected 
legislatures controlled by pro-Nazarbayev parties) the 
elections, predictably, will deliver a solid pro- 
presidential majority. End Summary. 
 
2. On June 16, 2005 the President issued a decree 
announcing Senate (upper house of Parliament) elections 
for August 19, 2005.  Of the thirty-nine seats in the 
Senate, seven are selected by the President. The remainder 
are chosen by Maslikhats in each of the 14 oblasts and the 
cities of Astana and Almaty on a three-year rotating 
basis. Consequently, sixteen seats are being contested in 
this election. Each Maslikhats elects two Senators by 
majority vote. Only the general results of the vote are 
announced, not the break-down. 
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Nominating Candidates 
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3.  The nomination period for Senate candidates began on 
June 18, and will run until July 18. Article 71 of the 
Elections Law mandates that the candidates can be 
nominated by the Maslikhats, or they can be self- 
nominated. A candidate must first file an application with 
the Regional Elections Commission (REC). The Commission 
then reviews the candidate's eligibility. Eligible 
candidates need the support of at least 10% of all members 
of the given Maslikhat. To register, all candidates must 
deposit around $55 with the Central Election 
Commission(CEE). Only candidates who gain at least 7% of 
the vote get their deposit refunded. 
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Counting the Vote 
----------------- 
4. The registration of candidates ends on July 29. 
Election campaigning will be permitted from July 30 
through August 17.  The REC will tally the vote on the day 
of the election,  For its part, the CEE plans to verify 
final results by August 25 and publish them no later than 
August 28. 
 
5. Comment: Senate elections have, to date, elicited 
little public comment or interest.  We expect the 
Maslikhats, already a bastion of pro-presidential parties, 
to deliver a solid pro-Nazarbayev Senate. One Senator from 
the banned DVK Party has indicated privately that she may 
not run for reelection. Should that happen, and if no 
opposition candidates are selected during this round, the 
Kazakhstani Parliament would be bereft of a single 
opposition voice. The elections, however, will show how 
support breaks down among pro-presidential parties. We 
expect Asar and the Agrarian and Civil parties to make the 
best of it in their respective strongholds. That said, 
Otan should pick up most of the seats.  End comment. 
 
6. Dushanbe minimize considered. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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