US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1114

UNCLAS  SOFIA 001114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS LEAD POLLS FOR SATURDAY'S VOTE; LATE 
SUPPORT FOR NEW EXTREMIST PARTY 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 0067, (B) SOFIA 808, (C) SOFIA 931, (D) SOFIA 1020, 
(E) SOFIA 1036 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 
retains a comfortable lead over the ruling party for the June 25 
general election according to all reputable opinion polls released 
as the 30-day campaign draws to a close.  Surveys show the 
Socialists appear poised to win the most seats in the next 
parliament but will likely fall short of an absolute majority. 
This would force the BSP to seek support from the ruling National 
Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) or the ethnic Turkish Movement for 
Rights and Freedoms (MRF) to form a government.  The final 
International Republican Institute (IRI) survey shows the 
Socialists are expected to have 95-105 MPs in the 240-seat 
parliament.  The PM's party, which has failed to build on its 
strong record and narrow the gap with the BSP, is estimated to win 
around 60 MP seats.  Originally considered a fringe group, the 
extreme nationalist group "Ataka" has seen a surge of support in 
recent days.  Many analysts think the group may achieve the four 
percent threshold needed to enter parliament, where it would be a 
potentially disruptive force.  During the late stages of the 
campaign, BSP leader Stanishev, also the party's PM nominee, 
reiterated that the Socialists would immediately withdraw 
Bulgaria's troops from Iraq should they come to power. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (SBU) All polls indicate the Socialists, whose last stint in 
government was ended by mass protests in early 1997, will emerge 
with the most seats after the election (Refs B, D).  The well- 
organized BSP, the political party with the longest history and the 
most developed regional structures, enjoys a 10-percent lead over 
the ruling party as of June 15, the IRI poll showed.  Support for 
the Socialists edged up to 26 percent from 23 percent a month 
earlier.  A survey by Bulgaria's reputable Alpha Research polling 
agency suggests the gap between the BSP and NMSS is even greater - 
13 percent.  According to the IRI, a big part of the undecided 
voters are also likely to back the poll-leading Socialists.  The 
BSP could come close to an absolute majority in case of low turnout 
or if any of the small center-right parties do not pass the four 
percent threshold, because under Bulgaria's complex proportional 
representation system, the largest party gets the lion's share of 
the redistributed votes (Ref. E).  The poll also showed 39-year BSP 
Chairman Stanishev to be the preferred future prime minister with 
22 percent support in June, ahead of incumbent Simeon Saxe-Coburg 
Gotha with 18 percent, and well ahead of the center-right 
opposition leaders.  Although Iraq has not become a major campaign 
issues, Stanishev has recently played to the 70 percent public 
opposition to Government policy in Iraq by restating that the 
Socialists would immediately withdraw Bulgaria's military 
contingent from Iraq should they come to power. (Ref. A) 
 
3. (SBU) The NMSS, which in contrast with the BSP has poorly 
developed regional political structures and lacks party 
organization, has failed to build on its successes and narrow the 
gap with the BSP (Ref. C, D). Its sharp switch to an anti-BSP 
course in a move to attract the soft center-right electorate did 
not help, and support for the ex-king's party was unchanged at 16 
percent in mid-June compared to a month earlier.  The popularity of 
Saxe-Coburg, whose cabinet became only the second Bulgarian post- 
communist government to complete its full four-year term, has also 
edged down. In June, 31 percent say the PM did a good or a very 
good job compared to 34 percent in May.  The number of those who 
believe Simeon, the first European monarch to regain power as prime 
minister, deserves re-election has remained unchanged at 25 
percent.  In 2001, Simeon's movement won a landslide victory with 
43 percent of the vote. 
 
4. (SBU) The month-long-campaign has not brought a surge in support 
for the weakened and fractious center-right either, and the three 
center-right groups remain out of the key race.  The main 
opposition center-right coalition, led by the Union of Democratic 
Forces (UDF), continued to lose ground as support for it edged down 
to 7.0 percent in June from 8.0 percent in May.  Some analysts say 
that a worse-than-expected showing on the part of Nadezhda 
Mihailova's UDF could be one of the surprise outcomes from 
Saturday's election.  Ex-PM Ivan Kostov's party, the Democrats for 
Strong Bulgaria (DSB), and the coalition of Sofia Mayor Stefan 
Sofianski (the Union of Free Democrats or UFD) have, however, 
stabilized their electoral support at around 4.0 percent each, 
meaning that both groups have chances to enter the next parliament. 
 
5. (SBU) In perhaps the biggest surprise of the election so far, 
all polls register a late surge over the past month in support of 
the extreme nationalist group Ataka which campaigns under the motto 
"Let's Give Bulgaria Back to Bulgarians".  The group's leader, 
Volen Siderov, a well-known journalist, is openly anti-Semitic and 
anti-U.S.  Ataka opposes membership in the EU and NATO, is anti- 
Roma and anti-Turkish and seeks closer ties with Russia.  It is 
winning the protest vote of people living in the margins of 
society, some young people and voters with extreme leftist and 
rightist views who are against the status quo.  Polls show that for 
the first time in post-communist elections, a nationalist group 
stands a chance to cross the four percent threshold and enter 
 
 
parliament.  This would be a major change for Bulgaria, a country 
with a moderate and tolerant history. 
 
6. (SBU) Exit poll results will be announced after polling stations 
close at 7 p.m.  Preliminary results are expected to be announced 
by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) before midnight.  Final 
results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC within four 
days of the vote, and the list of names of newly-elected MPs is 
announced in seven days (Ref. E). 
 
7. (SBU) COMMENT: Based on polling data, the Socialists appear set 
for a victory in the Saturday election which will likely result in 
the formation of a BSP-led government.  However, since the BSP may 
not have a majority, other coalition scenarios are possible, 
especially given Bulgaria's track record for political surprises. 
Ataka, the surprise in this campaign, would have a larger platform 
for its extremist views if it makes it to parliament, and may 
tarnish Bulgaria's image as the country finalizes its accession to 
the EU.  END COMMENT