US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA1331

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 001331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR WHA/PD; IIP/G/WHA DIPASQUALE; AND IIP/T/ES 
DEPT. FOR EB/TPP DCLUNE, WHA/EPSC AND WHA/CEN 
DEPT. PASS USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP, KPAO, ETRD, HO, USTR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ON OAS AND NICARAGUA, JUNE 21, 2005 
 
 
1. Op-ed in San Pedro Sula-based liberal daily "Tiempo" on 
6/21, titled "OAS in Nicaragua."  "The Secretary General of 
the OAS, Jose Miguel Insulza, returned to Washington from 
Managua without being able to do anything special to resolve 
the conflict between the executive and the judicial branches 
in Nicaragua.  This conflict threatens to become a crisis of 
governability." 
 
"For the OAS this is a very dificult problem because, in the 
first place, it is very clear that none of the parties in 
question is truly ready for dialogue.  This is precisely 
what Secretary General Insulza witnessed when he personally 
sought to remedy the situation by promoting a dialogue where 
both sides compromise and find common ground." 
 
".it is the internal forces within Nicaraguan society that 
must face the situation, as is already beginning to happen 
with the popular protests that demand a change in attitude 
from the protagonists of the conflict." 
 
"Without a doubt, the mobilization of civil society, of 
interest and pressure groups, and the adequate participation 
of the media, will be the determining factors in the 
resolution of this crisis, in which with wise diplomacy and 
political ability, the OAS might then play a significant 
role." 
 
 
 
2. On 06/21 the Tegucigalpa-based liberal daily "La Tribuna" 
published an editorial entitled "Advancing the Elections." 
"It looks like the opposition in Nicaragua, which has the 
President trapped, will get its way.  Mr. Enrique just 
announced that he would be open to advancing the elections. 
He announced this after the Secretary General of the OAS 
failed at his attempt to establish dialogue between the 
opposing parties, coming up against irreconcilable and even 
infantile differences." 
 
"The situation is very tense, with Mr. Enrique insisting 
that the constitutional reforms must be put to a referendum, 
since the Central American Court of Justice ruled that they 
are not valid.  And the opposition insists that the reforms, 
which take public agencies away from the control of the 
executive, are nonnegotiable." 
 
"The members of congress in Honduras, instead of wasting 
energy on so many electoral reforms which only take us 
backwards.should start thinking about how to introduce a 
constitutional article that allows for the advancement of 
elections at any moment so that the country has a way out, 
in case it gets caught in a bog like those in Ecuador, 
Bolivia and Nicaragua.  In these three countries, as well as 
in Haiti and Peru, the advancement of elections seems to be 
the only option for getting out of the jam in which they 
find themselves." 
 
 
3. On 06/21 the Tegucigalpa-based liberal daily "La Tribuna" 
published an editorial entitled "Danger!"  "In Spanish- 
speaking America, the political situation is a mess.  If it 
is true that military coups are no longer necessary for the 
overthrow of governments, things have gotten even simpler 
because all that is needed now is massive unrest, consistent 
and prolonged, to do away with any government. Lately, this 
is how governments have been falling, creating climates of 
institutional disorder and establishing a precedent that 
leads to a wave of social instability." 
 
"In Central America we have been enjoying a degree of 
stability after the continuous coups d'etat of the past, 
that have been substituted with democratic elections.  It's 
for this reason that we observe with deep worry what is 
occurring in Nicaragua, where a popularly elected president 
maintains a precarious balance in order to stay in power. 
Meanwhile, the opposition party represented by the old 
Sandinista revolutionaries appointed to the Sandinista 
National Liberation Front astutely align with the liberals 
in order to regain power." 
 
"Jose Miguel Insulza, Secretary of the OAS, alarmed by the 
dangerous situation in Nicaragua, has arrived in the country 
as a mediator, although the situation is apparently 
irreversible since the plans, disguised in legalities, are 
going forward." 
 
"Perhaps the arrival of the Sandinistas to power will not 
mean much to Central America, since communism has ceased to 
exist. But it will be welcomed by Venezuela and Cuba, among 
others.  If Insulza fails in his efforts, the Americans will 
have a problem at their doorstep. And all doors will be 
closed to President Bolaos, except seeking political asylum 
at the United States Embassy." 
 
Palmer