US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI597

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000597 
 
SIPDIS 
 
MILITARY TREAT AS SPECAT 
 
STATE FOR AF ASSISTANT SECRETARY CONSTANCE NEWMAN 
DEFENSE FOR ISA/AF DAS THERESA WHELAN 
NSC FOR AF DIRECTOR DR. CINDY COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, MASS, DJ 
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI'S MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON 
RATIONALE BEHIND BASE LEASE REQUEST 
 
REF: A. DJIBOUTI 593 
     B. DJIBOUTI 594 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARGUERITA D. RAGSDALE. 
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) During Ambassador's 6/22 meeting with Djibouti's 
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahmoud Ali Yousuf, on several 
matters, Ambassador expressed her regret that the Minister 
had only just arrived from a visit to Qatar and Tunis and 
had been unable to see General Abizaid during the latter's 
6/19-6/20 visit to Djibouti.  Yousuf said he had been 
briefed on the General's meetings.  He was aware that 
President Guelleh had sent a letter to President Bush on 
base lease renewal and wanted to say that the letter was at 
the behest of Ambassador Olhaye and was based on a two-part 
rationale. 
 
2. (C) First, Yousuf explained, Djibouti is making progress 
in structural reforms designed to improve its long-term 
economic development.  It will soon host a meeting of 
donors to foster planning for a development assistance 
program that would cover the next five years.  Already, 
there is investment in projects such as Doraleh port and 
new plans are focused on energy and water. The money that 
Djibouti gets from major Funds, such as the Kuwait and Arab 
Funds, for example, will be primarily loans.  It would be 
difficult for Djibouti to finance projects over the long 
haul with loans because of the impossible debt load that 
would accrue to the country.  Rental of the base at Camp 
Lemonier can provide a cash infusion that would help 
Djibouti achieve its development goals without taking on 
greater debt. 
 
3. (C) Second, he continued, was the ten-year access 
agreement already signed with the French military. Under 
that agreement, according to Yousuf, France pays about 
200,000 Euros annually to support civil-military projects, 
an additional 5,000,000 Euros for equipment (similar to 
U.S. Foreign Military Financing), and a direct infusion of 
about 25,000,000 Euros in cash.  This equals 30 million 
Euros (about USD 42 million).  Other technical assistance, 
economic aid in health, education and other fields, plus 
French spending on the local economy are "extra," according 
to Yousuf. The intent was to have the sum that the U.S. 
would pay fall within the proximity of what the French are 
already paying. It is, he said, only "a ballpark figure." 
 
4. (C) Comment:  Djibouti is indeed a small place.  We are 
already beginning to receive comments from Djiboutian 
military, business, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
contacts about the sum demanded and the future of the U.S. 
military presence at Camp Lemonier.  There are those, such 
as Abdurahman Boreh (see ref b), who state definitively 
that Guelleh's request to President Bush for USD 50 million 
was a mistake and that there are long-term benefits of the 
U.S. presence that cannot be measured in immediate dollars. 
Fear exists that the U.S. military might indeed pull up 
stakes.  The Minister's unsolicited explanation of the 
"rationale" behind the letter may be interpreted as 
evidence of this fear. Yousuf also implied that Djibouti 
might accept less.  We reiterate, though, that it is 
President Guelleh who will ultimately decide what Djibouti 
will accept.  End comment. 
RAGSDALE