US embassy cable - 05MANILA2840

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 002840 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, MOPS, PINR, ASEC, RP 
SUBJECT: LEFTISTS JOIN OPPOSITION MOVES AGAINST ARROYO 
 
REF: A. MANILA 2777 
 
     B. MANILA 2731 
     C. MANILA 2730 
     D. MANILA 2689 
     E. MANILA 1988 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Leftist groups, most of which are aligned 
with the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People's Army 
(CPP/NPA), appear to be lining up with mainstream opposition 
elements in efforts to unseat President Arroyo.  Leftist 
groups, which have the ability to turn out protesters, are 
planning to join upcoming anti-Arroyo rallies.  Student 
leftist groups are also becoming increasingly active.  So 
far, there is no sign that the NPA is increasing the tempo of 
its guerrilla attacks.  While the left's activities are 
potentially a headache for Arroyo, it remains unclear how 
closely leftists will be able to work with pro-Estrada and 
other opposition elements in forming a joint movement.  In 
addition, there is little sign as of yet that Filipinos are 
prepared to join anti-government demonstrations on a 
large-scale basis.  End Summary. 
 
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Left Plans Non-Violent Action 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Leftist groups, most of which are aligned with the 
CPP/NPA, appear to be lining up with mainstream opposition 
elements in efforts to unseat President Arroyo.  Teodoro 
"Teddy" Casino, a congressman representing Bayan Muna, a key 
leftist party, told poloff on June 16 that his party was 
working closely with other leftist groups "to force" a change 
in the government.  Casino said Bayan Muna was convinced that 
Arroyo had become extremely vulnerable due to recent 
disclosures related to taped presidential conversations and 
"jueteng" (illegal gambling) (see reftels).  Underscoring USG 
support for the rule of law and the welfare of the Filipino 
people, poloff urged that Bayan Muna work constructively 
within the system, and not undermine democracy and stability. 
 Casino insisted that his party and its allies would work 
peacefully: "We will not support a violent change in 
government." 
 
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Upcoming Rallies 
---------------- 
 
3.  (C) Casino added that the left was actively encouraging 
rallies and demonstrations that it hoped would culminate in a 
new "people power" movement that would displace Arroyo.  He 
also confirmed that the left remained open to "tactical" 
alliances with other opposition groups in planning 
anti-Arroyo events.  Contacts have confirmed that leftist 
groups are planning to join upcoming anti-Arroyo rallies.  A 
planned June 24 rally will attempt to join leftist groups and 
mainstream opposition elements associated with former 
president Joseph Estrada, former presidential candidates 
Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Brother Eddie Villanueva, 
and others.  Contacts have confirmed that the June 24 rally 
will include leftist "party list" groups, such as Bayan Muna, 
Anakpawis, Gabriela (which represents women), and Kilosang 
Mayo Uno (KMU -- a militant trade union).  Longtime activist 
priest Father Joe Dizon, who is helping to link the left and 
other opposition elements, confirmed to poloff on June 20 
that the combined effort was "driven by common feeling that 
the truth of the 2004 election should come out."  Dizon said 
the organizers were expecting a very broad "front" of "over 
20,000" to assemble peacefully at the same spot in downtown 
Manila where a similar June 11 rally fizzled after an 
uninspiring turnout of fewer than 5,000 people (see ref B). 
Dizon told poloff that additional rallies were planned in the 
July timeframe. 
 
------------------- 
Student Left Active 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Student leftist groups are also becoming increasingly 
active.  Leftists at the University of the Philippines, who 
control the student council, and other GRP-funded colleges 
and universities are effectively using the Internet and cell 
phone texting to broadcast anti-GMA messages.  (Note: 
Compared to the situation at state-funded schools, students 
at Catholic and other private universities, such as Ateneo 
and La Salle, do not seem as active at this time.)  These 
students have been particularly effective at distributing 
copies of the tapes, including a popular cell phone ring 
tone, on which President Arroyo appears to be engaged in 
discussions with an election official about the margin of her 
victory in the May 2004 election.  Students have also held 
small anti-government rallies at several universities. 
Leftist students are also engaging in occasional "street 
theater" activities in and around Manila meant to generate 
anti-GMA publicity.  Gilberto Teodoro, a pro-Arroyo 
congressman, told Acting Polcouns on June 20 that he had not 
seen students this active since the successful 2000-01 effort 
to remove Estrada. 
 
-------------------------------- 
No Uptick Seen in NPA Activities 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) So far, there is no sign that the NPA -- the 
military/terrorist wing of the CPP -- is increasing the tempo 
of its guerrilla attacks in order to take advantage of 
Arroyo's troubles.  One CPP/NPA website asserted that the 
current "Gloria-gate" scandal was part of the "continuing 
crisis of the ruling system" and repeated a traditional NPA 
call for the left to take actions "to weaken the Arroyo 
regime."  CPP/NPA leader Jose Maria Sison -- in exile in the 
Netherlands -- and other party officials have not been quoted 
as indicating that any sort of armed offensive is imminent, 
however.  Nonetheless, some contacts are concerned that the 
NPA may well increase its activities.  Senator Ralph Recto 
recently told Acting Polcouns that he thought the NPA would 
probably ratchet up attacks in order to augment pressure on 
the Arroyo administration. 
 
6.  (C) At this point, Mission has not detected any 
activities beyond the usual consistent pattern of tit-for-tat 
incidents involving the NPA and the Armed Forces of the 
Philippines (AFP).  A notable recent incident occurred June 
12 in the province of Pampanga, located northwest of Manila, 
when a group of soldiers killed 14 members of a pro-NPA rebel 
group.  In retaliation, on June 13, a group of some 20 NPA 
guerrillas killed at least nine AFP soldiers in an attack in 
Ilocos Sur Province which is located north of Manila.  In 
Samar Island in the Central Philippines, AFP Major General 
Jovito Palparan announced that he had requested that 
reinforcements be moved to the region to counter NPA forces. 
Samar has long been a hotbed of the NPA insurgency. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) The left can bring protesters out on the street and 
its activities are a potential headache for Arroyo.  It is 
unclear, however, how closely the left can work with 
pro-Estrada and other opposition elements.  The two groups 
have very little in common, save for their anti-GMA views. 
Despite the political volatility that has erupted over the 
tapes and the jueteng allegations, the NPA has not 
demonstrated that it is capable, at least as of yet, of 
exploiting the situation to its advantage.  Observers say 
that attacks in urban centers such as Manila would be a 
tripwire indicating a NPA attempt to ramp up the pressure. 
Malacanang appears to be adopting a wait-and-see strategy in 
the hope that its opponents' efforts run out of steam and, in 
any case, there is little sign thus far that Filipinos are 
prepared to join anti-government demonstrations on a 
large-scale basis. 
 
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BELLARD