US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2704

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002704 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, CH, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIPEI SEEKS TO DEFUSE FISHING DISPUTE WITH JAPAN 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2530 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Taiwan is seeking to quickly settle a recent 
row with Japan over a disputed fishing zone in waters between 
Taiwan and Japan.  Taipei says that the two sides are likely 
to hold a round of talks in late June/early July to agree on 
an expanded joint fisheries area that should mitigate against 
future friction.  Despite progress on the diplomatic front, 
Minister of National Defense (MND) Lee Jye caved into 
opposition pressure to dispatch a Taiwan Navy frigate to the 
disputed fishing zone to assert Taiwan's claim.  Lee and 
Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng personally took 
part in the June 21 cruise that was billed by the media as a 
show of force in the face of Japanese bullying.  Taiwan 
officials accuse Pan-Blue politicians and media outlets of 
hijacking the fishing dispute to undermine Japan-Taiwan 
relations.  Views within Taiwan on Japan are divided sharply 
along ethnic lines, making the government particularly 
sensitive to the need for resolving the ongoing dispute 
quickly.  This factor, combined with media and opposition 
chest-thumping, has pushed the government to gradually take a 
harder public line on the issue than it originally 
envisioned.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Taiwan officials are seeking to find a quick 
diplomatic solution over the recent expulsion of Taiwan 
fishing boats by Japanese authorities operating between 
Taiwan and Okinawa (Reftel).  While officials downplay the 
strategic significance of the issue, opposition politicians 
and media outlets have used the June 8 expulsion of Taiwan 
fishing vessels from the disputed area to grandstand against 
the government's alleged weakness in dealing with Tokyo. 
Pan-Blue legislators characterized MND leaders as defeatists 
after a senior officer told LY members that Taiwan could not 
win a war with Japan over the territorial dispute.  People 
First Party (PFP) Defense Committee Co-Chair Lin Yu-fang 
threatened to block action on the Special Defense Procurement 
Budget if MND did not send vessels to "protect" Taiwan's 
fishermen.  Pan-Blue legislators denounced the Taiwan Navy 
for using ongoing exercises as an excuse for not sending 
vessels to the area.  Bowing to opposition demands, the 
Taiwan Navy dispatched a frigate to the area on June 21 with 
MND Minister Lee Jye, LY Speaker (and KMT Chairman candidate) 
Wang, and members of the LY Defense Committee on board. 
 
Tempest in a Teapot 
------------------- 
 
3. (C) Taiwan officials express dismay at politicization of 
the issue.  Raymond Mou, Senior Advisor to Foreign Minster 
Mark Chen, told AIT that the fisheries dispute should be 
resolvable fairly quickly once negotiators from the two sides 
sit down to discuss the issue.  National Security Council 
(NSC) Senior Advisor for Asia Affairs Lin Cheng-wei echoed 
this view, noting that talks are provisionally set for late 
June.  Lin complained that the main reason agreement had not 
been reached in earlier rounds of fisheries talks was that 
both sides, having made the politically symbolic step of 
creating a forum for dialogue, preferred to keep the issues 
unresolved in order to have an excuse for further meetings. 
Lin stated that the main issue left unresolved after the last 
14 rounds of Taiwan-Japan fishery talks concerns the size of 
a joint fisheries management zone in the area where the 
Taiwan boats were expelled on June 8.  Taiwan officials say 
that there are few Japanese fishing boats that operate in the 
area, thus Tokyo's past insistence in limiting the size of 
the joint fishing area makes little sense in commercial 
terms.  Lin added that Taipei is also willing to de-link 
fisheries discussions from more sensitive questions of 
territorial waters and EEZs in recognition of Tokyo's one 
China policy.  Lin expressed optimism that Tokyo's desire to 
avoid friction with yet another neighbor will convince 
Japanese officials to seek a quick settlement favorable to 
Taipei's interests. 
 
4. (C) In the immediate aftermath of the June 8 incident, 
senior Chen administration officials emphasized publicly that 
the issue should be resolved diplomatically and not be used 
as an excuse to antagonize a friendly neighbor.  However, 
Premier Frank Hsieh and other senior officials later adjusted 
their public line, touting the government's determination to 
protect the rights of Taiwan fishermen in the wake of a 
constant barrage of anti-Japan media commentary.  Japanese 
Interchange Association Deputy Director Hirakoba Hiroto told 
AIT that Taiwan officials have privately been apologetic over 
the government's recent actions, especially the June 21 
dispatch of the frigate, and asked Tokyo to understand that 
these actions are only being taken to ease political pressure 
on the Taipei government. 
 
5. (C) While Taiwan officials say the media and political 
uproar over the fisheries dispute strengthens Taipei's 
negotiating position, they privately assert that Taiwan has 
no real moral ground to stand on.  Col. Yuan Cheng-Pei, the 
Taiwan NSC official in charge of Taiwan-Japan pol-mil issues, 
told AIT that Japan is justified in taking a hard line 
towards Taiwan fishing boats since Taiwan's aggressive 
fishing fleet "constantly" violates Japan's territorial 
waters.  Yuan stated that Taiwan fishing groups are making 
such a big deal over the June 8 expulsion only because it was 
a rare occasion where their activities fell into a gray area, 
allowing the Taiwan fishermen to cynically portray themselves 
as victims.  Yuan expressed frustration over the media's 
distorted coverage of recent events and willingness to create 
facts in order to fuel a sense of public crisis. 
 
Ideological Plot? 
----------------- 
 
6. (C) Other government and ruling party officials suggest 
darker motives behind the recent fishing episode.  Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) International Affairs Department 
Deputy Director Hsieh Huai-huei asserted that Pan-Blue 
officials and media outlets have tried to leverage the 
episode to drum up anti-Japanese sentiment.  Hsieh said that 
the Pan-Blue not only wants to undermine warming ties between 
Taipei and Tokyo, but also seeks to distract public attention 
from the PRC military threat.  Other Pan-Green contacts point 
out that the Suao fishing association directly involved in 
the current standoff is part of a local political faction 
headed by a former PFP legislator.  Some contacts have also 
drawn a link between the political/media frenzy over the 
fishing dispute and the high-profile recent trip to Tokyo by 
PFP-affiliated aboriginal legislator Kao-Chin Su-mei to 
demand that Japan return the spirits of aborigines listed at 
the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. 
 
7. (C) The NSC's Lin said that the government is deeply 
concerned by attempts by opposition politicians to manipulate 
the current fishing dispute for ideological ends.  Views 
towards Taiwan's relations with Japan are divided sharply 
along ethnic lines.  Ethnic Taiwanese and Hakka, regardless 
of political affiliation, generally see Japan in a positive 
light while many Mainlanders and aborigines, for historical 
reasons, hold views on Japan similar to those in Mainland 
China and Korea.  Lin said that the government is 
particularly concerned that the opposition's anti-Japan 
campaign will impact on morale within the Taiwan military, 
which remains overwhelmingly Mainlander and has a historical 
enmity towards Japan.  Local papers have quoted unnamed 
Taiwan military officials grumbling that a pro-Japan clique 
in the NSC is preventing the military from taking a harder 
line towards Japan over the fishing dispute. 
 
8. (C) Not all Pan-Blue officials have joined the anti-Japan 
bandwagon.  Former KMT Premier and Chief of the General Staff 
Hau Pei-tsun criticized MND's decision to dispatch a frigate 
laden with political figures as meaningless showmanship 
(Comment: Hau's criticism may have been a dig at KMT Chairman 
candidate Wang.  Hau is the only KMT elder supporting Wang's 
reformist rival Ma Ying-jeou.  End Comment).  Former KMT 
legislator Apollo Chen (Shuei-sheng) told AIT that the 
fishing episode will "only increase the public's perception 
that the KMT has become a willing partner for Beijing in its 
efforts to sabotage Taiwan's relations with Washington and 
Tokyo."  Chen warned that the KMT's actions are likely to be 
used against it in future presidential elections. 
 
Silver Lining? 
-------------- 
 
9. (C) Some observers say the Pan-Blue chest-thumping over 
the fishing dispute could have some unintended benefits for 
the government, for example by easing the standoff over 
passage of the Special Defense Procurement Budget.  National 
Cheng-chi University Professor Chao Kuo-tsai told AIT that 
PFP legislators may be able to build a case for their deep 
Blue supporters that Taiwan needs to upgrade its defenses in 
order to resist Japan, not the PRC.  Chao commented that MND 
Minister Lee's willingness to accommodate Pan-Blue demands, 
despite resistance from DPP officials and legislators, may 
have been a critical gesture to the Pan-Blue ahead of a 
possible summer special session to discuss the Special 
Defense Procurement Budget.  The NSC's Lin noted that another 
positive side-effect of the recent episode would be Japanese 
acceptance of Taipei's request to establish operational 
channels between the Taiwan and Japanese Coast Guards.  Lin 
said that one of the reasons the June 9 episode got out of 
hand was that the two sides had no way to communicate quickly 
enough to take measures to prevent a more public standoff. 
 
Comment: Domestic Politics in the Driver's Seat 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
10. (C) Neither Taipei nor Tokyo wants a confrontation over 
fishing rights in the East China Sea and are likely to work 
hard to resolve differences over the joint fisheries 
management area at the center of the June 8-9 incident.  A 
diplomatic solution is unlikely to satisfy Taiwan's fishing 
industry, which will no doubt be emboldened by recent media 
and political support to further push the envelope in waters 
controlled by Japan.  Media grandstanding has largely 
succeeded in forcing the government to take a harder line, at 
least in public, towards Japan than it would have otherwise 
preferred.  In the longer run, however, Japan-bashing is not 
likely to be a winning strategy for the Blue camp.  While 
polls suggest there is public sympathy for the plight of 
Taiwan's fishing interests, there is also widespread 
pro-Japan sentiment around the island, especially among the 
island's ethnic Taiwanese majority. 
PAAL