US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV3894

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 003894 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: LABOR PARTY PRIMARIES APPROACHING THE STARTING 
GATE -- WITH AN OLD HORSE, A HIGH HORSE, A DARK HORSE, A 
DEAD HORSE, AND A HORSE OF A DIFFERENT COLOR 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The Labor Party's 82-year old interim 
chairman, Vice Premier Shimon Peres, is currently favored to 
garner the highest -- but not an outright winning -- vote 
total among the five contenders in Labor's June 28 party-wide 
primaries, a so-far lackluster race that could nonetheless 
decide the longevity of Prime Minister Sharon's 
post-disengagement coalition.  Peres is the only candidate 
likely to push Labor to remain in the coalition after 
disengagement, with the surprise second running candidate, 
Amir Peretz, likely to push for leaving once disengagement is 
completed this fall.  Polls show no candidate likely to win 
the necessary 40 percent of the votes to claim a first-round 
victory, making a runoff election between Peres and the 
runner-up likely.  End summary. 
 
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Horse of a Different Color Bursts Forth 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) With less than one week before the June 28 Labor 
primaries -- unless they are postponed pending an 
investigation into alleged voter registration irregularities 
-- the media have devoted little front-page news to the 
chairmanship race in which four Labor Party Knesset members 
and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak will compete.  According 
to the latest Ma'ariv and Ha'aretz polls published June 15 
and June 16, respectively, Peres and Peretz are the front 
runners.  Peres has around 30 percent support and Peretz some 
20-plus percent, both substantially short of the 40 percent 
plurality required to win, but enough ahead of other 
candidates to make them the almost certain runners for a 
second round election.  Following is a snapshot of the 
candidates: 
 
-- "Old Horse": Octogenarian Vice Premier Shimon Peres 
currently leads the polls with about 30 percent of the vote. 
Peres is the only candidate likely to advocate remaining in 
Sharon's coalition after disengagement.  Peres' rivals 
contend that he is harming the party by remaining in power 
and that he should stand aside for the younger generation of 
Labor Party leaders.  Housing Minister Itzhak Herzog, himself 
one of those leaders, recently told the Ambassador that he is 
certain Peres will win the primary, even though Peres has not 
developed a serious campaign. 
 
-- "Horse of a different color": Amir Peretz, chairman of the 
Histadrut labor federation, stands, surprisingly, in second 
place, with over 20 percent of the vote and gaining.  He will 
push for Labor to leave the coalition after disengagement, 
due primarily to his fierce opposition to Finance Minister 
Binyamin Netanyahu's economic policy.  Peretz appeals mainly 
to the poor and to blue collar workers, but has also gained 
support from unlikely sectors.  At a recent event sponsored 
by the Israeli Bar Association, Housing Minister Herzog told 
the Ambassador that he noticed that the lawyers "loved 
Peretz" and that Peretz made a "great speech" that covered 
more than his usual Histadrut positions.  Herzog referred to 
Peretz as "the most interesting candidate," and suggested 
that Peretz may make it to the runoff.  Peace Now Director 
and Labor Party member Yariv Oppenheimer told Poloff June 20 
that he himself will support Peretz in the primaries because 
Peretz addresses social issues and "brings something new" to 
the party.  Oppenheimer pointed out that Peretz is one of the 
founders of Peace Now. 
 
-- "High Horse": Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who 
refuses to admit he had made any mistakes during his brief 
tenure as prime minister, told the Ambassador recently that, 
while he has strong support within the party apparatus, he 
knows he has to garner more support among the electorate 
itself.  At least five of Labor's 21 MKs, including former 
candidate for prime minister Amram Mitzna, have come out 
publicly in support of Barak.  According to Oppenheimer, 
Barak will likely push Labor to leave the coalition after 
disengagement in order to build Labor's identity as an 
alternative to Likud.  Pundits and politicos had pegged Barak 
early in the Labor campaign as the most likely candidate to 
succeed in a race against Sharon.  Barak, however, has done 
surprisingly poorly in polls.  In a poll published June 12, 
Barak came in last place among the five contenders, but has 
since moved to third place.  Barak told the Ambassador that 
he hopes to improve his standing before the election.  With 
one week remaining, Barak reportedly is hoping that 
contenders Matan Vilna'i and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer will leave 
the race and support him. 
 
-- "Dark Horse": Minister-Without-Portfolio Matan Vilna'i's 
support has dwindled from 18 to 13 percent in the course of a 
week.  Herzog told the Ambassador that "everyone is waiting 
for Vilna'i to emerge from the stable.... "  Vilna'i, a 
former general, told a visiting staffdel May 9 that Israelis 
will look for new leadership in the post-disengagement 
period, and presented himself as Labor's best candidate to 
take on Likud.  Vilna'i reportedly is the only candidate who 
has not yet received the support of any other Labor MK. 
While not Labor voters' top choice for party chair, in a 
recent poll Vilna'i did top the list as "the most honest 
candidate." 
 
-- "Dead Horse": National Infrastructure Minister Binyamin 
Ben-Eliezer -- "Fuad" -- is tallying some 10-11 percent 
support in polls.  Ben-Eliezer has appealed to the 
Israeli-Arab population, which, according to the latest Labor 
survey, represents 12 percent of Labor's approximately 
117,000 members -- the party's largest voting bloc.  Herzog 
told the Ambassador that he would write Fuad off as a "dead 
horse." 
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Second Round Likely 
------------------- 
3.  (C) Recent polls show that none of the Labor Party 
candidates will garner more than 40 percent of the vote, the 
minimum required to win in the first round.  A second round 
will thus follow between the two candidates with the largest 
shares of votes.  Herzog told the Ambassador June 2 that he 
and Interior Minister Ofir Pines -- another young Labor 
leader -- have not decided who they will support, and may 
wait until the runoff before deciding. 
 
4.  (C) The candidates have not to date presented clearly 
distinguishable campaign platforms and have resorted mainly 
to personal attacks against one another.  For example, the 
major daily Ha'aretz reported June 14 that Barak, who 
publicly said that he would steer away from a smear campaign, 
referred to the other candidates in the race as "flies" 
buzzing around Peres.  The second round will likely draw out 
differences in substance and strategy between the candidates. 
 
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Membership Drive Investigated 
----------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Several Labor Party candidates and MKs, including 
Barak and Pines, are calling for a postponement of the June 
28 primaries pending the completion of an internal Labor 
Party investigation into charges of irregularities in the 
party's membership drive in certain localities.  For example, 
in one Israeli-Arab village in the Galilee, hundreds of 
residents' signatures allegedly were forged and they were 
signed up as Labor members without their knowledge.  As of 
June 20, newly-elected Labor Secretary General Eitan Cabel 
had decided not to postpone the date, but mounting pressure 
within Labor could compel Cabel to reconsider, especially if 
more evidence surfaces of irregularities. 
 
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KURTZER