US embassy cable - 90MOGADISHU2527

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 02527 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, SO 
SUBJECT:  PEACE BREAKING OUT IN THE NORTH? 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
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2.  SUMMARY:  EXHAUSTED BY FRATRICIDE AND WEAKENED BY 
HUNGER,FEUDING TRIBES IN NORTHWEST SOMALIA MAY AT LAST 
BE READY TO MAKE PEACE AMONG THEMSELVES, WITH SNM, AND 
WITH GSDR.  SOMALI ARMY "WARLORDS" IN THE NORTH HAVE 
ALREADY WITHDRAWN FROM THE FRAY TO DEVOTE THEMSELVES TO 
BUSINESS DEALS, AND SNM COMMANDERS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 
SIMILAR ENTERPRISES TO KEEP FROM STARVING.  RESIDUAL 
FIGHTING IS LITTLE MORE THAN INTER-TRIBAL RAIDING.  OUR 
SOURCE SAYS EVERYONE IS READY TO LAY DOWN ARMS AND PEACE 
TALKS ARE SPROUTING LIKE MUSHROOMS.  END SUMMARY. 
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3.  COLONEL OMAR ABDULLAHI HANDE, A GADABOURSI (FROM 
BORAMA) CLOSELY CONNECTED WITH ARMED FORCES COMMANDER 
GENERAL "MASLAH", CALLED ON AMBASSADOR ON HIS RETURN FROM 
SIX WEEKS IN NORTHWEST SOMALIA MARCH 12.  HE TOLD US HE 
HAD JUST MADE FOLLOWING POINTS IN A REPORT TO PRESIDENT 
SIAD: 
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-- PROFITEERING "WARLORDS" HAD TAKEN FULL CHARGE OF 
SOMALI ARMY FORCES STATIONED IN THE NORTHWEST.  HE FOUND 
NONE/NONE PROSECUTING THE WAR AGAINST SNM.  INSTEAD, 
ALL SENIOR COMMANDERS WERE DEVOTING THEMSELVES ENTIRELY 
TO BUSINESS DEALS, SELLING SOLDIERS' RATIONS, FUEL, AND 
AMMUNITION TO BOTH SNM AND TRIBAL FIGHTERS. 
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-- FIGHTING NOW GOING ON WAS CONDUCTED ALMOST 
EXCLUSIVELY BY TRIBAL MILITIAS OR "FRONTS" AND WAS AIMED 
AT PRESERVING TRIBAL TERRITORIES, HERDS, WATERHOLES, AND 
GRAZING AREAS AGAINST ENCROACHMENTS BY OTHERS (OFTEN BUT 
NOT ALWAYS SNM).  SOLDIERS BELONGING TO LOCAL CLANS HAD 
DESERTED THEIR UNITS AND SHED THEIR UNIFORMS IN ORDER TO 
FIGHT ALONGSIDE TRIBAL BROTHERS; THOSE FROM OUTSIDE THE 
REGION HAD SIMPLY WITHDRAWN TO TOWNS TO WAIT OUT THE WAR. 
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-- TRADE IN GUNS AND AMMUNITION HAD BECOME HIGHLY 
PROFITABLE FOR ARMY OFFICERS, SINCE BOTH SNM AND ALLIES 
AND THEIR TRIBAL OPPONENTS WERE BIDDING UP PRICES. 
COMMANDERS WERE ALSO PROFITLNG FROM DESERTION OF THEIR 
TROOPS BY SIMPLY POCKETING SALARIES. 
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-- MANY DISPLACED PERSONS (I.E. ISAAKS) WOULD HAVE 
RETURNED HOME LONG AGO HAD THEY NOT BEEN DETERRED FROM 
DOING SO BY BOTH/BOTH SNM AND GOVERNMENT FORCES.  GROWING 
NUMBERS WERE NOW RETURNING, BECAUSE AUTHORITY ON BOTH 
SIDES HAD PRACTICALLY COLLAPSED AND ISAAKS, SUFFERING 
FROM THIRST, HUNGER, DISEASE, AND ABOMINABLE CAMP 
CONDITIONS, WERE DEMANDING TO GO HOME. 
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-- AMONG THEMSELVES, TRIBAL LEADERS -- REALIZING THEY HAD 
BECOME VICTIMS AND PAWNS IN THE WAR BETWEEN SIAD AND SNM -- 
WERE NEGOTIATING PEACE AGREEMENTS ON ALL SIDES.  ISAAKS OF 
HABR TOLJALQ   AND HABR YUNIS CLANS HAD SIGNED A TRUCE 
WITH DOLBAHANTA FROM LAS ANOD.  ISAAKS FROM HARGEISA AND 
BORAMA HABR AWAL WERE SUING QADABOURSI FOR PEACE ALONG 
THEIR COMMON TERRITORIAL BORDER EAST OF BORAMA.  A SIMILAR 
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GADABOURSI AND ISSA APPEARED WITHIN 
REACH. 
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-- CLOSURE OF DJIBOUTI-BORAMA HIGHWAY HAD BADLY HURT 
COMMUNITIES ALONG THAT ROAD AND FORCED PRICES SKY HIGH IN 
BORAMA.  A 50 KILO BAG OF RICE NOW COST MORE THAN 80,000 
SO.SH., OR ABOUT TWELVE TIMES THE PRICE OF AN AVERAGE 
GOAT.  HOWEVER, GADABOURSI IN BORAMA HAD ESTABLISHED 
ALTERNATIVE TRADE LINKS VIA BERBERA AND WERE RUNNING 
CONVOYS UNDER ARMED (NON-MILITARY) ESCORT FOUR TIMES A 
MONTH, CARRYING LIVESTOCK TO BERBERA PORT AND RETURNING 
WITH SUPPLIES OF FOOD.  (COLONEL OMAR COMMENTED THAT IT 
WAS NOW DJIBOUTI ITSELF THAT WAS SUFFERING MOST FROM 
CLOSURE OF THE ROAD AND LOSS OF COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY.) 
 
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4.  AMBASSADOR COMMENTED TO COLONEL OMAR HE HAD HEARD FROM 
PRIME MINISTER SAMANTAR THAT A PEACE AGREEMENT WITH SNM 
MIGHT BE CONCLUDED AS EARLY AS APRIL.  OMAR SAID THIS WAS 
NOT/NOT BEYOND POSSIBILITY, AS THE SNM LEADERSHIP WAS 
ITSELF COLLAPSING, ITS FORCES HAD TAKEN SEVERAL SEVERE 
DEFEATS AT THE HANDS OF GADABOURSI AND OTHER TRIBAL 
"FRONTS" IN RECENT WEEKS, AND ISAAK ELDERS WERE PROBING 
FOR PEACE DEALS AMONG BOTH OTHER TRIBAL GROUPS AND GSDR 
ITSELF.  SNM LEADERS WERE NO LONGER "TALKING SO TOUGH" 
AS THEY HAD BEFORE AND ARE SO DIVIDED THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE 
TO HOLD THEIR SCHEDULED CONGRESS.  INDEED, COLONEL OMAR 
SAID, THEY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SAME HABITS AS SOMALI 
ARMY OFFICERS: USING TRUCKS DONATED BY ISAAK SUPPORTERS TO 
TRANSPORT KHAT AND FOR OTHER PRIVATE COMMERICAL PURPOSES. 
GIVEN THIS SITUATION, PLUS SAMANTAR GOVERNMENT'S APPARENT 
DETERMINATION TO REACH AGREEMENT SOON IN ORDER TO HOLD 
ELECTIONS, COLONEL OMAR BELIEVED THAT SAMANTAR JUST MIGHT 
BE ABLE TO PULL IT OFF. 
 
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5.  ONE INTERESTING SIDELIGHT: WITH THE EXHAUSTION OF 
NOMADIC FIGHTERS ON BOTH SIDES OR THE BORDER AND SOLDIERS 
FROM BOTH SIDES SELLING THEIR GUNS TO BUY FOOD, BIGGEST 
PURCHASERS OF WEAPONS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE THE OROMO 
LIBERATION FRONT.  OMAR POINTED OUT THAT THE OLF (WHICH 
COUNTS ON BACKING FROM SOME 22 MILLION OROMOS, OMAR SAID) 
NOW SEES AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MENGISTU'S 
SETBACKS AT THE HANDS OF ERITREANS AND TIGRAYANS AND HAVE 
SUDDENLY GROWN VERY AMBITIOUS. 
 
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6.  COMMENT:  COLONEL OMAR'S ASSIGNMENT, WE INFER, WAS TO 
INSURE THAT THE GADABOURSI AROUND BORAMA REMAIN FIRMLY 
ENROLLED ON THE SIDE OF THE GOVERNMENT (THEY ARE IN FACT 
SURROUNDED BY ANTI-GOVERNMENT ISAAK AND ISSA FORCES THAT 
HAVE BEEN TRYING UNSUCCESSFULLY TO BRING BORAMA TO ITS 
KNEES).  OMAR SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BEYOND HIS ASSIGNMENT, 
HOWEVER, TO SURVEY THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION 
GENERALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.  HIS REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT 
HAS BOTH BAD NEWS AND GOOD NEWS:  AN UTTERLY INEFFECTIVE 
AND CORRUPT SOMALI ARMY FORCE FACING AN EQUALLY INEFFECTUAL 
AND EXHAUSTED INSURGENCY.  OMAR BELIEVES EVERYONE IS TIRED 
OF THE WAR NOW AND LOOKING FOR PEACE AND WE HOPE HE'S 
RIGHT.  CERTAINLY PRIME MINISTER SAMANTAR IS COUNTING 
HEAVILY ON THE FATIGUE FACTOR, AS HE MOUNTS HIS RELIEF 
OPERATION FOR RETURNED ISAAKS IN BURAO AND PROMISES A 
PEACE AGREEMENT WITHIN TWO MONTHS.  PERHAPS THERE IS LIGHT 
AT THE END OF THIS DREADFULLY LONG TUNNEL. 
 
CRIGLER