US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1086

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W, AF/PDPA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, SOCI, PINR, OIIP, OPRC, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL 
         REPORT 
 
Begin Summary:  The National Intelligence Council (NIC) 
Report, "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future, touched off a 
firestorm of debate in the National Assembly and in the 
media; overshadowing discussion of presidential impeachment 
and the controversial presidential library project as well as 
deliberations at the National Political Reform Conference. 
End Summary. 
 
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NIC REPORT IS BESTSELLER 
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1.  In a May 24 letter to the Senate president transmitting 
copies of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) Report, 
"Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future," President Obasanjo 
started a firestorm of legislative and media debate that has 
lasted for more than two weeks.  Released just days before 
the start of Democracy Day (May 29) activities to mark his 
inauguration and the return to civilian rule, reaction to the 
NIC report quickly became a report card on the six years of 
Obasanjo's administration and pushed stories about 
presidential impeachment and the controversial presidential 
library project off the front page.  Reacting to the NIC 
report's assertion that Nigeria could become a failed state 
in 15 years, the report became an instant media sensation. 
It was serialized in the Daily Trust, northern Nigeria's 
leading newspaper and the Daily Independent, owned by the 
Delta State governor.  It was also the 6-page cover story, 
"OBJ and America - What has gone wrong?," in the Weekly 
Trust, companion paper to the Daily Trust.  The widely read 
papers such as the Guardian, This Day, and the Sun also 
published many articles and opinion pieces. 
 
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OBASANJO DRAWS CRITICISM OVER NIC REPORT 
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2.  In the Weekly Trust of May 28 - June 3, Garba Deen 
Muhammad concluded that "The US sees clearly that there will 
not be a level playing field in 2007.  They know the danger 
of ruling people against their will, and they sense that the 
ingredients for enforced leadership are gathering.  It is in 
this light that we should view the diminishing stature of our 
president before the international community.  This perhaps 
explains why the US chose to release the report in the manner 
it did.  It is a loud political statement to Obasanjo, not to 
you and me." 
 
3.  In the Daily Independent of June 3, Ekeng Anam-Ndu 
writes, "I see the government's unconditional condemnation of 
the report as unfortunate.  Rather than look at the report 
dispassionately as an opportunity for national 
self-appraisal, the President used the occasion to arrange a 
truce with the National Assembly and possibly douse the 
so-called impeachment threat." 
 
4.  Okey Ndibe's op-ed of June 2 in the Guardian wrote, 
"Anyone who remains aghast that the American report would 
take a dim view of Nigeria's prospects has only to recollect 
a few of the moral and political blights that have befallen 
Nigeria under President Obasanjo's watch.  The world is aware 
that on July 10, 2003, a group of men and women close to the 
president organized the abduction of a state governor." 
 
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USE NIC REPORT TO FIX NIGERIA 
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5.  Writing in the Sunday Punch of May 29, Doyin Abiola 
described the report as "irritating" and "meddlesome," but 
concluded, "we could use it as a wake-up call to clean up our 
act to break the jinx before it becomes a self-fulfilling 
prophecy." 
 
6.  In an op-ed piece in the Guardian of June 2, Oludimeji 
Longe asserted, "The US intelligence report that Nigeria may 
break up cannot be dismissed as a 'glib talk' but must be 
accepted as 'verbum serpienti' and as a challenge to the 
nation to mend fences where the 'blocks are loose.'" 
 
7.  In his "Public Sphere" column in the Sun newspaper of 
June 3, Onuoha Ukeh expresses misgivings about intelligence 
reports, citing lapses in Iraq, but concluded that, "Whatever 
we think of the intelligence report, the government should be 
grateful that the agency exposed what could have been an 
undercurrent.  If the government knows what is good for it, a 
time has come for it to do more towards correcting the issues 
highlighted in the intelligence report.  To be sure, only 
those who are blind to reality would deny that the threat to 
the country is real.  The government would be naive to 
believe that many citizens are happy in the Nigerian union." 
 
8.  In a Guardian op-ed of June 5, Pat Utomi states, "Instead 
of blaming others maybe it is time for us to begin to reflect 
that if Nigeria collapses we all lose something and that 
Nigeria cannot but collapse if we do not mend our ways, place 
service at the centre of public life and reduce drastically 
the level of conflicts of interest in the conduct of people 
both in the public and private sectors." 
9.  The June 5 editorial in the Sunday Sun stated bluntly, 
"Leaders should not fly off the handle with loud 
chest-beating and self-congratulatory performance which the 
followers do  not enjoy.  Instead, we urge all governments to 
end the blanket sentimental tantrums, take the report 
seriously and correct the imperfections which make the 
experts' crystal ball gazing appear like a self-fulfilling 
prophecy." 
 
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US PLAYS POLITICS WITH NIC REPORT 
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10.  In the Daily Trust of May 30, Adagbo Onojo wrote, "The 
Americans are doubting the future of the Nigerian state, 
thereby strengthening the South African claim (for a UN 
Security Council Seat).  The American mindset is obviously 
predicated on Egypt getting one of the seats and the second 
one to South Africa whose level of capitalist development 
rates them higher on (the) American scale of interests." 
 
11.  In the Daily Trust of May 31, columnist Ujudud Shariff 
surmised that, "The US has perfected the art and science of 
political intimidation to achieve its objectives.  Apart from 
the already cited harassment by the US, Nigeria especially 
its predominant northern Muslims, are alleged to harbour 
Al-Queeda sympathizers and is therefore a potential threat to 
the US...the obvious strategy is to incite the (Nigerian) 
government against the Muslims, especially those in the 
north." 
 
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VALIDITY OF NIC REPORT QUESTIONED 
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12.  Obi Nwakanma in the Sunday Vanguard of May 29 wrote, "A 
few critiques of the US projections point to the fact that 
its intelligence estimates have largely been unreliable given 
the massive intelligence failure prior to Iraq and given that 
this prediction is nothing new." 
 
13.  In his column in the Daily Independent of June 3, Ben 
Oguntuase stated, "After reading the report several times 
over, I saw in it more of challenges to governance than 
calculated and potent psychological assault on Africa and 
Nigeria in particular.  There is always the possibility that 
those who are not given to scenario planning would always see 
conclusions and evaluations based on scenarios as the product 
of wishful thinking.  It is not always so." 
 
14.  Egbokhare Francis in the Sunday Tribune of June 5 wrote, 
"I think honestly that Nigeria broke up years ago, and we are 
only now trying to put it back together...The conflicts and 
ethnic tensions, social inequalities, corruption, 
assassinations, general discontent, murders, strife and 
disrespect for law and order all point to a nation in 
disarray.  The reason this nation has not gone to war is 
simply because it will not be in the interest of the West to 
have war in Nigeria." 
 
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GON OVERREACTION TO NIC REPORT 
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15.  In the Daily Trust of May 30, Issa Aremu stated, "When 
there is a persistent hyper-reaction in response to a routine 
pastime from Washington, DC., then it will not be out of 
place to talk of an emerging affliction called Abuja 
dependency syndrome." 
 
16.  Oghogho Obaywana emphasized the positive side of the 
report in his Guardian op-ed of June 3, "Far from being a 
document of doom, the recently released intelligence report 
on the future of sub-Saharan Africa by the US National 
Intelligence Council also outlined several critical success 
factors for the survival of corporate entities such as 
Nigeria." 
 
17.  COMMENT:  While President Obasanjo's reasons for 
releasing the NIC report are unknown, the unanticipated 
consequence of his action is that debate over the report has 
become a failing report card on his administration. 
 
 
 
 
CAMPBELL