US embassy cable - 05MADRID2363

UNCLAS MADRID 002363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, SP, Popular Party, PSOE - Socialist Party 
SUBJECT: CLIFFHANGER IN THE GALICIAN ELECTIONS: IS IT THE 
END OF FRAGA? 
 
REF: MADRID 1628 
 
1. (SBU) In a high turnout election, the opposition Popular 
Party (PP) appears to have lost the absolute majority it has 
held in the Galician Regional parliament since 1989. Though 
the PP won the popular vote in Galicia comfortably, taking 
approximately 45%, with all votes counted it has won only 37 
seats, one short of the 38 necessary for the absolute 
majority which would permit it to govern alone. This is down 
from the 41 seats it won in 2001. The Socialist Party of 
Galicia (PSdeG), regional partner of the national Socialist 
Party (PSOE), won 25 seats, up considerably from 17 in 2001, 
and the Galician  Nationalist Bloc (BNG) won 13, down from 17 
in 2001. If this result sticks, it will mean the end of the 
rule of Manuel Fraga, former Information Minister under 
Franco, founding member of the PP, and president of the 
Galician Regional government for the past 16 years. It will 
also be a severe blow to Mariano Rajoy, national leader of 
the PP and Galician native, and to the party as a whole, 
already on the defensive since its loss to the PSOE in 
national elections in 2004. With their combined seats, the 
PSdeG and BNG plan to govern in coalition, should the final 
results confirm the PP's loss of absolute majority. 
 
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NOT OVER YET... 
--------------- 
 
2. (U) Nonetheless, the ballots of 72,000 Galician emigrants 
-- resident mostly in Latin America and other parts of Europe 
-- make up 12% of the Galician electorate and have yet to be 
counted, leaving the final result in suspense. These ballots 
are due to be counted on June 27. It is possible for the PP 
to take another seat through the emigrant vote -- 
specifically one from the province of Pontevedra, where the 
PSdeG currently holds a slim lead in the vote count, but 
where the PP has done particularly well among emigrants in 
the past two elections. 
 
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PSOE THE BIG WINNER 
-------------------- 
 
3. (U) In any event, the PSdeG strengthened its position in 
the conservative stronghold significantly with this election 
result, taking votes both from the PP and from the 
nationalists, gaining eight seats and almost 11 percentage 
points in the popular vote. In a vote which saw a massive 68% 
turnout, the PSdeG mobilized its base more than other parties 
and won an astounding 509,340 votes, compared to 320,283 in 
the 2001 elections. The Socialists showed particular strength 
in the urban centers, winning the city of A Coruna and tying 
with the PP in Vigo. The party undoubtedly benefited from the 
national popularity of the PSOE and of President Jose Luis 
Rodriguez Zapatero, still riding the wave of his March 2004 
election win. 
 
4. (SBU) The Socialists also probably profited from a lack of 
enthusiasm for the PP's Fraga, who, at 82-years-old, is 
viewed by some as a relic of the past who has largely 
neglected the question of leadership succession in the 
regional branch of the PP. His last government was heavily 
criticized for its handling of the 2003 Prestige oil spill 
off the Galician coast and for the lack of development in 
Galicia, one of Spain's poorest regions. In addition, Fraga's 
campaign in recent weeks has been highlighted by somewhat 
undiplomatic comments which have received wide coverage in 
the press. In a recent poll done in Galicia by daily El 
Mundo, 60% of PP members questioned said they would have 
preferred a different PP candidate in this election. 
 
5. (U) Post will follow up septel on results of the emig