US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1079

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/W, S/P, INR/AA AND INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, NI, ECOWAS 
SUBJECT: AN EVENING WITH THE VICE PRESIDENT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D). 
 
Addresses:  State, EUCOM, Lagos, ECOWAS collective 
 
!.  (C) Summary:  The Vice President with no visible agenda 
provided a tour d'horizon of Nigerian politics, with 
commentary on social and economic developments at the 
Ambassador's residence on June 18.  He is confident that 
through his mastery of the PDP party machinery, he will 
ensure his nomination for the presidency in 2007.  He still 
believes the President is tempted to manipulate the 
constitution and political system so that he can remain in 
office after his Presidential term expires -- and, Atiku 
judges, Obasanjo will fail.  Atiku discussed extensively the 
President's own health, and provided autobiographical 
comments about himself.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) At his suggestion, Vice President and 2007 
presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar came to dinner the 
night of June 18, staying just under three hours.  He was 
accompanied into the Residence only by a businessman friend, 
Lawal Abas, and two staff/security personnel.  As is typical, 
there were at least eleven additional security people who 
remained outside.  With the Ambassador was the Political 
Counselor and Poloff.  As his office had requested, the Vice 
President, the Ambassador and Political Counselor dined in a 
room separate from the rest of the party.  The dinner 
occurred the day following the closure of the U.S. Consulate 
in Lagos because of a security threat and precipitating other 
Lagos diplomatic closures, an event that drew widespread and 
sensationalist media coverage and, according to one 
Presidential Villa staffer, annoyed the President. 
 
------------- 
Lagos Closure 
------------- 
 
3.  (C)  The Ambassador thanked the Vice President for the 
outstanding response of the Nigerian security services to our 
requests for additional protection in light of a credible 
security threat.  The Vice President said that as soon as the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs had informed him of the threat 
and our planned closure in Lagos, he had ordered the security 
services to provide all necessary assistance. 
 
------------------------- 
The Political Environment 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Atiku repeated that the President is not reconciled 
to leaving office in 2007 as provided for by the 
constitution.  However, he said that the Political Reform 
Conference (Confab), the National Assembly and the states are 
unlikely to make or allow any significant change in the 
constitution (other than minor adjustments to the 
Federal/state revenue sharing formula) before the elections. 
The President would only be reconciled to leaving office by 
the end of this calendar year when he would see he had no 
other choice.  Then, he would turn to deciding whom to 
support for 2007.  Meanwhile, the President is seeking to 
manipulate the PDP party machinery, making "unconstitutional" 
changes in its leadership and generally acting in an 
autocratic manner.  However, Atiku showed great confidence in 
his own ability to control the party.  He said the party's 
convention will have more than 4,000 delegates, and he knew 
(he implied he controlled) more than 3,000 of them.  So, the 
President's current efforts at manipulation of the party's 
leadership -- the subject of extensive media attention -- "is 
beside the point, it has no relevance because it has no 
practical meaning for 2007."  "The problem with the 
President," Atiku continued, "is that he forgets that the 
party is about Nigeria, not about Abuja." 
 
5.  (C)  Atiku also expressed concern about the 2007 
elections and commented that the most important aspect of 
preparation was the independence of the Independent Nigerian 
Electoral Commission (INEC).  When asked, Atiku said that the 
amendments to the electoral act proposed by INEC "did not go 
far enough."  He stressed that the current composition of 
INEC did not allow for independence and that much more needed 
to be done to separate the body from the Presidency. 
 
6.  (C) The Ambassador expressed frustration over the 
continued media hype and misunderstanding about the National 
Intelligence Council's (NIC) study on Africa.  Atiku replied 
that the media attention would continue so long as the 
Political Reform Conference continues to sit.  He said that 
talk about the NIC study is a surrogate for direct debate on 
issues that the NIC is failing to address directly. 
 
7.  (C)  The Ambassador asked Atiku about the Delta.  Atiku 
said that he knows the Delta well, that he has long advocated 
a "comprehensive" approach to its problems.  In response to a 
question, Atiku said that Nigeria needs to establish a Coast 
Guard to respond to oil bunkering and general lawlessness in 
the creeks.  He had made that proposal to the President, who 
rejected it, Atiku said, because he prefers more traditional 
military structures.  Atiku continued that only the Federal 
Government of Nigeria has the capacity to undertake the 
infrastructure investments that the Delta so badly needs: 
roads, hospitals, schools.  The state governments simply do 
not have the capacity nor the mental attitude to provide 
services to their citizens.  When the Ambassador asked if 
this would weaken the state governors -- and thereby be 
opposed by them -- Atiku said the goal would be to get them 
to understand that they occupy a sphere separate from that of 
the Federal government.  He also noted that as many as 
two-thirds of the governorships turn over in 2007, implying 
that many of the newly elected would likely be his political 
allies.  As for the Niger Delta Development Corporation 
(NDDC), Atiku characterized it as beyond hope.  He suggested 
that his concept of a federal structure was required to 
harness public and private development in the Delta. 
 
8.  (C) Though a Northern Muslim politician, Atiku had little 
to say about the North during the evening.  He agreed with 
the Ambassador that development of the agricultural sector is 
key to reduction of poverty.  He made tantalizing allusions 
to the breakdown of law and order and banditry in Bauchi 
state and other areas of the Northeast, but quickly drew 
back, commenting that security is better now. 
 
---------------- 
Obasanjo The Man 
---------------- 
 
9.  (C)  Atiku said that he had known Obasanjo well since 
1990, and commented warmly on their partnership during the 
days of the Abacha dictatorship.  He also told anecdotes 
about their political alliance during the transition 
following Abacha's death and the establishment of the 4th 
republic.  Clearly Atiku viewed himself as a senior 
politician mentoring a relatively unsophisticated ex-military 
man -- who happened to have been a military chief of state. 
Based on Atiku's previous conversation with the Ambassador, 
the Vice President believes he had a commitment from the 
President that the latter would step aside in 2003, making 
way for the Vice President to run.  When Obasanjo did not, 
the two fell out.  That said, from the Ambassador's 
observations of their behavior together over the past year, 
there remains some sense of colleagueship, if no longer 
friendship, and at dinner Atiku at times commented on the 
President with warmth -- at least from the perspective of 
"what might have been." 
 
10.  (C) Nevertheless, Atiku characterized Obasanjo's current 
political behavior as autocratic and erratic.  "The President 
has always been restless;  he can't stay in one place," Atiku 
continued.  The President does not know how to work with 
ministers and does not use well his enormous staff.  "He 
insists on doing everything himself."  The President travels 
incessantly, often without notice -- to his staff or to his 
hosts.  Atiku told a story of Obasanjo giving another head of 
state two hours notice of his arrival -- delivered after he 
was already in the air.  Atiku said that the convention is 
that if the President is out of the country, the Vice 
President must be in Abuja.  This means, complained Atiku, 
that it is hard for him to pursue his own travel agenda and 
thereby burnish his international reputation -- or to take 
vacations. 
 
11  (C) Atiku said that the President consistently behaves 
"unconstitutionally," whether the focus is the party or the 
nation.  This behavior, Atiku continued, reflects the 
President's background and experience as a military man 
rather than a politician.  The President, Atiku continued, 
lacks political skills and makes up for it by an 
authoritarian approach with a low threshold of frustration. 
 
12. (C) Atiku said that the President's health is not good. 
"He abuses his body," Atiku continued, "through violent 
exercise, lack of sleep and incessant work and travel." 
"Don't be surprised if he simply drops dead."  Because 
Obasanjo will not delegate, insists on doing "everything," he 
will work all night -- calling the Vice President at 2 am. 
The President, Atiku continued, is diabetic.  With this life 
style, Atiku said, the President has had periodic collapses 
-- such as happened two weeks ago.  Rumors then swept the 
country that the President had died;  in fact, Atiku said, he 
had suffered from a short-term "diabetic coma". 
 
 
------------- 
Atiku The Man 
------------- 
13. (C)  As he has in previous conversation with the 
Ambassador, Atiku emphasized his links to the U.S.:  an 
American wife of Nigerian origin, three American children, 
his education by Peace Corps volunteers, a house outside of 
Washington.  He dropped hints that his Americophilia dates 
from the Abacha years.  He told the Ambassador a story about 
how "coldly" he was received by the UK when he tried to rally 
opposition to the Abacha regime, "even though I had had a 
house in London since 1976."  In contrast, he said, he was 
warmly received in Washington and at a high level.  Shortly 
thereafter, he transferred his foreign focus from the UK to 
the U.S., "where I take all of my vacations." 
14.  (C) Atiku said that his American wife has almost 
finished her Ph.D. at American University in Washington in 
"small arms transfers", and that she has been offered a job 
by the UN system.  (He implied that she would not accept it.) 
 He also confirmed that she had been his link to American 
University for the establishment of Abti American University, 
an American style institution that, he said, will open in 
September and already has on ground in Yola more than thirty 
American staff. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
15.  (C) Comment:  Atiku believes that Obasanjo will be 
compelled to step down in 2007 because he will be unable to 
make any alternative constitutional arrangements.  (Atiku 
does, however, allow a whiff of suspicion that Obasanjo might 
move illegally to prolong his government, with his references 
to persistent "unconstitutional" behavior.)  Atiku also 
believes that he controls the party machinery sufficiently to 
ensure that he will be the PDP presidential candidate.  And 
Atiku clearly still hopes that he will ultimately get 
Obasanjo's nod.  Indeed, Atiku's nomination chances are 
probably better now than six months ago, given Obasanjo's 
inability thus far to change the constitution.  Atiku is said 
to be immensely rich and that he is prepared to spend money 
to secure the nomination.  (He is also known for his 
generosity, while Obasanjo is miserly.)   A moderate, he is 
probably more acceptable than most other Muslim rivals to the 
Christian community.  If the party machinery functions 
according to the rules, Atiku stands a good chance of winning 
the PDP nomination, even if he probably overstates his degree 
of control over the delegates.  But, at this point, it is by 
no means certain that the PDP will survive in its present 
form, or if it does, that it will play by its current rules. 
There is also the open question of whether the 2007 elections 
will be conducted remotely according to democratic norms, or 
whether the process will be thoroughly manipulated by the 
"Big Men" in favor of a candidate guaranteed to protect their 
own interests.  (In that milieu, Atiku, a "businessman" whose 
fortune appears to be based on his tenure in the customs 
service, and with a non-military background, is something of 
an outsider.)  The Nigerian political system is also hostage 
to fortune, such as the President's health (his death would 
make Atiku the President, with all of he advantages of 
incumbency), the political stance of the politicos in the 
West, the East, and the South/South, law and order in the 
Delta, and the levels of violence leading up to the 2007 
elections -- and the perceived legitimacy (or lack thereof) 
of the elections themselves. 
 
16.  (C) Comment, continued:  Atiku's pro-American sentiments 
appear genuine, with his family links to the U.S. playing an 
important role.  (According to Lawal Abba, however, Atiku 
also has wives and children in Yola, Abuja and Lagos.) 
Nevertheless, the Ambassador has met with all of the serious 
presidential candidates with the exception of Ibrahim 
Babangida, and all of them give assurances of their 
pro-American outlook.  All of them appear to exaggerate 
American influence over the 2007 elections -- just as they 
exaggerate the U.S. role in sustaining in power the deeply 
unpopular Obasanjo. 
 
CAMPBELL