US embassy cable - 05DHAKA2880

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DHAKA 002880 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR P AND SA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015 
TAGS: OVIP, PGOV, PTER, PHUM, PREL, BG 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U/S BURNS'S VISIT TO BANGLADESH 
 
REF: A. DHAKA 02666 
 
     B. DHAKA 02610 
     C. DHAKA 02619 
     D. DHAKA 02409 
 
Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b,d. 
 
 1. (C) As the most senior State official to visit Bangladesh 
since Secretary Powell in 2003, you will be warmly received 
by Bangladeshis and the BDG.  Dynamic but chaotic, Bangladesh 
defies easy generalizations about its nature or future. 
Nevertheless, most trends are negative. 
 
Politics: The Art of the Dysfunctional 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Virtually every Bangladeshi problem -- from poor 
governance to an under-performing economy to its potential as 
a breeding ground for terrorism -- stems from a dysfunctional 
political system that smothers innovation, accountability, 
and a long-term national outlook.  The opposition Awami 
League (AL) and the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) 
are family-run enterprises fixated on power, history, money, 
and mutual animosity.  Democracy is valued as a legacy of 
independence, but for most Bangladeshis democratic practice 
stops at voting.  Decision-making is ad hoc and driven by 
proximity to leaders, not institutions or even interest 
groups.  The next general election is expected in January 
2007 and will be the most monitored in Bangladesh's history. 
A failed election, with no broadly accepted outcome, could be 
devastating for Bangladesh and key USG interests. 
 
3. (C) The AL blames the ruling BNP for a series of sometimes 
fatal attacks on opposition figures as part of an alleged 
plot to rig the next election.  It insists on early elections 
but not before major changes in the country's much-admired 
caretaker (interim) government system that it knows the BNP, 
which has a huge parliamentary majority, will never accept. 
It is progressively opting out of the political process by, 
inter alia, boycotting by-elections and parliament (ref A). 
The AL is divided on its implied threat to boycott the 
general election. 
 
4. (C) The BNP, under the direction of Tarique Rahman, the 
PM's controversial son and heir apparent, is increasingly 
preoccupied with preparing for the election and, it seems, 
doing whatever it can get away with to win (ref B).  In early 
June, the heavy-handed arrest and treatment of former 
President Ershad's now ex-wife underscored PMO paranoia of a 
coalescing opposition (ref C). 
 
5. (C) The AL has failed to find an issue to generate 
momentum against a government whose most popular action in 
three years is the creation of the Rapid Action Battalion and 
its thinly veiled policy of extra-judicially killing alleged 
criminals.  However, the AL still has unmatched national 
organizational strength, and it could benefit from 
traditional anti-incumbent sentiments, especially if it 
builds better political partnerships, capitalizes on popular 
dismay over rising fuel and food prices, and exploits 
apprehensions about violence, religious extremism, 
corruption, and the PM's son. 
 
Political Islam 
--------------- 
 
6. (C) BNP leaders believe they need the support of Jamaat 
Islami (JI), the country's biggest Islamist party, to win 
marginal constituencies and beat the AL.  Their alliance is 
based solely on mutual expedience.  JI says BNP is the 
"lesser of two evils," while BNP says JI can be constrained 
and co-opted inside government.  JI's leader told us he'll 
demand 50 tickets from BNP in the next election; the BNP 
insists it'll hold the line to keep JI's representation in 
parliament near its current total of 17. 
 
7, (C) Political Islam is vertically integrated with its own 
banks, NGO's, student coaching centers, health care 
facilities, businesses, media, a violent youth wing, and a 
mainstream political party--Jamaat Islami.  JI works hard to 
convince us that it is committed to democratic 
constitutionalism and minority rights.  Ironically, it's the 
only party in Bangladesh to practice internal democracy, 
reward merit, be relatively non-corrupt, and, critically, 
have a ideological vision that it pursues with discipline. 
JI says it aspires to real political power after two or three 
elections.  Failure by the mainstream parties to rehabilitate 
themselves creates a vacuum JI is increasingly poised to 
fill. 
 
8. (C) There is a widening split between JI and other 
Islamist groups, including fellow coalition partner IOJ, 
driven by ideology, personalities, and envy (ref D).  IOJ 
elements might abandon the coalition, though their 
contribution was largely a facade of Islamist unity, not 
voters.  Islamist groups have a predominantly domestic focus 
for historical and other reasons; demonstrations against 
alleged USG desecration of the Quran were relatively modest. 
Also, Islamist violence continues to target other Muslims 
using low-grade weapons and tactics.  However, the 
ingredients for terrorism -- corruption, porous borders, 
ineffective security forces, sympathetic local elements -- 
exist and could combust if political volatility and violence 
are not controlled. 
 
Political Violence 
------------------ 
 
9. (C) Political violence traditionally peaks in the run-up 
and aftermath of national elections.  In 2004, it claimed 
246 lives, but in the election year of 2001 the figure was 
494.  The new trend in the past two years, however, is the 
targeting of high-profile opposition and "liberal" civil 
society leaders.  Until recently, the BDG had failed to bring 
any of the culprits to justice, fanning speculation it 
condoned the violence.  Significantly, the assassins of AL 
MPs Ahsanullah Master and Shah Kibria are tied to the BNP, 
not Islamists working in cahoots with the BNP as claimed by 
the AL.  Since the BDG in February banned two Islamist groups 
charged with attacking two Bangladeshi development NGO's, 
there has been a sharp drop in political violence.  Getting a 
handle on political violence is critical for the 2007 
election. 
 
Human Rights 
------------ 
 
10. (C) Strong traditions of free speech, robust elections, 
and a lively if unprofessional free press are mitigated by 
serious problems with police abuses, harsh treatment of women 
and children, and victimization of religious minorities, 
especially at election times.  Respect for democratic 
concepts is skin deep, in and out of government.  Faced with 
the specter of U.S. sanctions on trafficking in persons, the 
BDG last year acted quickly on several fronts to earn a Tier 
II rating in 2005.  We have repeatedly raised at senior 
levels our objections to thinly-veiled extra-judicial 
killings by the paramilitary Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and 
other police units, noting Leahy amendment implications for 
the military officers seconded to RAB.  After a steep drop in 
spring, "cross-fire" killings rebounded sharply in May to 
reach 179 (37 from RAB) as of June 12.  The BDG says that the 
sensitivities and needs of the majority should not be 
sacrificed for the needs of a few, in this case "criminals" 
-- the same logic invoked to justify the BDG's ban in January 
2004 of Ahmadiya publications. 
 
India 
----- 
 
11. (C) India is Bangladesh's most important neighbor but 
their relationship is a comfort to neither.  Trade, most of 
it illicit, is significant but far below its potential. 
Water sharing, illegal migrants, alleged Indian insurgent 
camps in Bangladesh, alleged GOI sanctuary for Bangladeshi 
criminals in India, and periodic border clashes are all 
recurring themes.  The AL's close ties to the GOI, real and 
perceived, are a serious political liability for the AL.  The 
BDG believes that India manipulates foreign and Bangladeshi 
media reporting to support the AL's projection of Bangladesh 
as a failing, Talibanizing state.  In the run-up to this 
week's Foreign Secretary talks in New Delhi, BDG security 
forces made two raids in border areas to kill and arrest 
alleged Indian insurgents -- a first in recent memory -- 
though officially the BDG maintains there is no regular 
insurgent presence in Bangladesh.  The official, but 
unreleased, BDG inquiry into the August 21 grenade attack 
that killed 23 persons at an AL rally blamed India; recent 
developments, including the recall of Interpol personnel to 
Dhaka, indicate the BDG is again pursuing that line of 
inquiry. 
 
U.S. Relationship 
----------------- 
12. (C) Because of the U.S.'s global status, our strong 
trading and people-to-people ties, and potential USG leverage 
with India and China, any BDG puts a premium on a visibly 
healthy relationship with Washington.  The BDG is therefore 
susceptible to pressure if the issue, like TIP, doesn't 
jeopardize a core political interest.  The BDG believes that 
the geographical breadth of its commercial and political 
relationships, along with the declining donor percentage of 
its development budget, shield it from foreign pressure. 
 
Suggested Themes/Points for Meetings 
------------------------------------ 
 
13. (C) For BDG: 
 
-- Congratulations on Bangladesh's historic cricket victory 
against Australia.  Beating the best is always satisfying, 
especially when people were saying Bangladesh didn't belong 
in top-flight (test) cricket. 
 
-- I'm visiting Bangladesh early to underscore the USG's 
continuing interest in Bangladesh, its commitment to our 
broad partnership, and concerns about common problems like 
terrorism, corruption, and political violence. 
 
-- Greatly appreciate BDG's leadership in international 
peacekeeping (new deployments to Sudan). 
 
-- Appreciate your cooperation with FBI on the Kibria case. 
You promised us full cooperation and you delivered.  We look 
forward to continued progress in this area. 
 
-- Appreciate your work to update your criminal code to 
facilitate investigations and prosecutions of terrorism. 
 
-- Welcome your support for eight more UN CT conventions. 
When will Parliament ratify?  Positive action on the 
remaining UN CT convention, on terrorist financing, is also 
important. 
 
-- Know you want Millennium Challenge Account status, but a 
clear, concerted government commitment to combat corruption 
is critical.  Last week's resignation of the Energy Minister 
of State because of his acceptance of a luxury vehicle from a 
foreign (Canadian) oil company sent a positive signal, but 
more is needed. 
 
-- Very concerned by the sharp increase in extra-judicial 
"cross-fire" killings.  Know that Ambassador Thomas has 
explained Leahy amendment implications to you.  Continued 
killings and implementation of Leahy sanctions would 
undermine a broad range of Bangladeshi interests in the U.S. 
Congress. 
 
-- Like you, we want free and fair elections.  We welcome the 
successful election in Chittagong, which saw the re-election 
of a mayor from the opposition; he is no friend of the USG 
but his victory was good for democracy.  Our focus is on how 
the political process operates, and whether the opposition is 
allowed to play its democratic role free of harassment and 
other constraints.  Containing political violence is 
essential.  We tell the opposition they should exercise and 
defend their democratic rights, not surrender them. 
 
For JI: 
 
-- Concerned by anti-Ahmadiya attacks.  We'd welcome explicit 
condemnation from JI on violence and attacks on religious 
freedom. 
 
-- How does JI view the 2007 election?  How many seats does 
it hope to win? 
 
-- What are the BDG's successes and failures in government? 
How would JI do better? 
 
For AL: 
 
-- We understand the importance of the next election.  We are 
watching the process closely and will react sharply against 
attempts to obstruct legitimate opposition activity. 
-- Therefore, we are concerned by AL's steady opting out of 
the political process, by boycotting by-elections and 
parliament.  Democratic rights should be exercised and 
defended, not surrendered. 
 
Watch Out for from BDG 
---------------------- 
14. (C) 
 
-- The USG should support duty-free access for Bangladesh to 
the U.S. garment market to prevent hundreds of thousands of 
Bangladeshi women from losing their jobs with the end of MFA 
quotas.  Bangladesh is democratic, moderate, and poor.  It 
deserves your help so it can compete with communist China. 
(Note: There are many steps Bangladesh can take to improve 
its competitiveness: reduce corruption, cut Chittagong port's 
high costs and long delays, improve infrastructure, cut 
delivery times, and diversify exports.) 
 
--  The USG should, as a matter of policy, support Bangladesh 
for MCA. 
 
--  The USG should pressure the AL to rejoin the democratic 
process. 
 
--  PM Zia would like to meet with POTUS/visit Washington. 
THOMAS