US embassy cable - 02HARARE1833

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001833 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ECON, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MUGABE VOWS TO STAY THE COURSE IN PUBLIC SPEECHES 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5(b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY: 
-------- 
1. (C) In his annual Heroes Day Speech on August 12, only 
sparsely attended by the diplomatic community, Mugabe showed 
no indication of veering from his current disastrous policy 
course.  He vowed to continue with the fast track 
resettlement effort but said that "loyal" commercial farmers 
would be allowed to stay.  He threatened retaliatory measures 
against the EU and United States for their "sanctions" on 
Zimbabwe.  In a separate speech on August 13, in honor of 
Defense Forces Day, Mugabe said the recent DRC-Rwanda 
agreement had paved the way for a Zimbabwean withdrawal from 
the DRC, although he did not provide a timeline for such 
action.  We suspect that Mugabe intends to allow only those 
farmers who eschew any political involvement and 
confrontation with the GOZ to remain on their farms, thus 
further strengthening ZANU-PF's hand in rural areas.  End 
Summary. 
 
LAND 
---- 
2. (U) Land was the main focus of Mugabe's August 12 Heroes 
Day address, not surprisingly given the August 8 deadline for 
many commercial farmers to leave their properties.  Mugabe 
indicated there was no going back from rectifying historical 
wrongs, and he drew parallels between land ownership and 
national sovereignty.  He said resettlement should be 
completed by the end of August, so new farmers can be given 
inputs and have seeds in the ground when the rains start in 
October.  He said that "loyal" commercial farmers, i.e. those 
who respect the GOZ, would be allowed to stay. 
 
ATMOSPHERICS 
------------ 
3. (U) The August 12 event was sparsely attended by the 
diplomatic community, although August summer vacations could 
be the reason for many of the EU absences.  A banner in front 
of the diplomatic tent--mostly filled with ZANU-PF 
supporters--exclaimed, "Britain, No One Believes Your Lies!" 
 
YOUTH SERVICE 
------------- 
4. (C) Mugabe defended young people who "slugged it out" on 
the farms along with older war veterans, applauding those 
young people as war veterans themselves in the fight for 
their land.  He insisted that the GOZ would press forward 
with a "Youth Service Programme" which he said would build a 
cadre of patriotic Zimbabweans who are prepared to defend the 
country's sovereignty and interests.  (Comment:  This pledge 
to establish a national service program has generated 
widespread concern in Zimbabwe, given the role played by the 
youth militia during the recent presidential campaign.  End 
Comment.) 
 
POINTING THE FINGER, AS ALWAYS 
------------------------------ 
5. (U) Mugabe's Heroes Day speech had a full dose of his 
standard anti-Britain, anti-EU, and anti-U.S. rhetoric, 
referring to the West as the "oppressing nations". 
Predictably, Britain got extra lashes.  "We do not kowtow to 
imperialists," he said, mentioning Prime Minister Blair as 
the worst culprit.  "To those who want to own this country 
for Britain... ...we say here on this national shrine that 
the game is up and it is time for them to go." he said. 
Attempting to divide and rule, Mugabe said he understands 
that some EU countries sympathize with the GOZ, but are 
finding it difficult to resist British dictates.  He also 
attempted to separate the British people from the British 
government saying, the British people know their government's 
policies are unjust.  Mugabe threatened to take retaliatory 
steps in response to U.S. and EU sanctions, reminding those 
governments that they have interests in Zimbabwe too, which 
could be targeted with phased but unspecified 
counter-sanctions. 
 
OPPOSITION RESPONSE 
------------------- 
6. (C) Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai criticized Mugabe 
for turning an occasion meant to honor Zimbabwe's national 
heroes into a purely partisan event.  (Comment:  We 
understand that a substantial number of the MDC's Members of 
Parliament attended the event, but that Tsvangirai was 
dissuaded from doing so by advisors who said his security 
could not be guaranteed.  End Comment.) 
 
DEFENSE FORCES DAY 
------------------ 
7. (U) During his speech to commemorate Zimbabwean Defense 
Forces (ZDF) Day on August 13, Mugabe announced formally 
that, due to the recent peace accord between the DRC and 
Rwanda, ZDF would be withdrawing from the DRC.  He provided 
no timeline for such action, however.  He said ZDF members 
had benefited from the land resettlement program and would 
continue to do so.  He praised the ZDF for building strong 
relationships with communities throughout Zimbabwe, and 
called on Zimbabweans to take advantage of business 
opportunities in the newly-peaceful DRC. 
 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
8. (C) Mugabe gave nothing publicly on land.  However, his 
remarks suggest he is inclined to declare victory in the next 
month or two and to allow those farmers who eschew 
confrontation with the government, and sever ties with the 
MDC, to continue to earn a living, albeit on truncated pieces 
of land.  We expect a triage is in the offing, with JAG 
members the first targets.  Any farmer tainted with 
opposition activism, or not willing to live by Mugabe's rules 
will almost certainly have to pack his bags.  If the GOZ 
follows through on this approach--and it seems determined to 
do so--one effect will be to remove a key source of financial 
support for the MDC and to eliminate vital rural footholds 
for the MDC.  End Comment 
WHITEHEAD