US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD2606

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002606 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, IZ, National Assembly, Shia Islamists, Sunni Arab 
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT ABDEL MEHDI PONDERS THE 
CONSTITUTION AND HOW TO GIVE SHIA WHAT THE KURDS NOW HAVE 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for 1.4 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY. During a June 18 farewell luncheon 
with Charge Jeffrey, Vice President Adil Abdel Mahdi 
noted that 13 of the 15 Sunni additional members to 
the Constitutional Committee had been decided upon. 
Abdel Mehdi opined that public ignorance among his 
Shia constituency about federalism could be a 
potential problem.  Mehdi said the public must be 
educated about the constitution.   He said there is 
some grumbling about the power and autonomy of 
Kurdistan, but suggested that other Iraqi provinces 
should form their own regions and achieve the same 
degree of authority and responsibilities that the 
Kurds now enjoy.  Discussions are ongoing about 
uniting nine southern provinces into one region, he 
stated.  Charge Jeffrey urged the Vice President to 
counsel the Shia to be flexible in accepting proposed 
Sunni Arab names for the constitution committee.  He 
said it would be important to delineate at the 
authorities of the provincial and regional governments 
as distinct from the national government in the new 
constitution.  He cautioned that setting up a large 
Shia regional government in advance of the approval of 
the constitution might complicate issues in Iraq. 
Mehdi speculated that the future Government would have 
a unicameral parliament elected from local 
constituencies that would in turn choose the prime 
minister while the presidency would be a ceremonial 
post mainly.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------- 
LOOKING AHEAD:  FEDERALISM DEBATE 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Vice President Adil Abdel Mehdi discussed the 
constitution during a June 18 farewell luncheon with 
Charge Jeffrey, saying the federalism discussion would 
be difficult because of a lack of understanding of 
this concept.  Most of the debate is amongst the Shia 
Coalition, said Abdel Mehdi, not amongst the Kurds. 
While Iraqis accept the general principle of 
federalism, he predicted that the discussions about 
its implementation could be heated. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
GIVING SHIA WHAT THE KURDS ALREADY HAVE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Abdel Mehdi mused that even if the Shia 
Coalition did not agree with the scope of local 
authority the Kurdish Regional Government has 
acquired, the Shia can do nothing about it.  In the 
end, he concluded, the Kurds were only taking what 
should be theirs by right.  He cautioned, however, 
that many in the Shia community do not agree; there is 
a sense that the Kurds have gone too far.  Abdel Mehdi 
said that, in a recent meeting of leaders of the 
southern provinces, there was grumbling that the 
current situation is unsupportable -- that it is 
impossible to have one region with all the authority 
and other provinces with none at all.  Abdel Mehdi 
stated that it would be impossible for the Kurds to 
have one set of authorities in their region and the 
Shia provinces to live with another.  The Kurds' 
authorities could not be reduced.  Thus, the 
authorities that the Shia locales have must be 
increased to match those of the Kurds.  He also agreed 
it is important to delineate which assets and 
responsibilities belong to the provinces and which 
belong at the national level. 
 
----------------------------- 
SHIA MEGA-REGIONAL GOVERNMENT? 
----------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Abdel Mehdi said there is a discussion 
underway about uniting the nine southern, Shia 
provinces to form a single region.  The Sunnis might 
see the creation of a single southern region as a 
stepping-stone to the region's annexation by Iran, but 
Abdel Mehdi argued that such a larger regional entity 
within Iraq would have enough weight to create a 
strong national identity, prevent fragmentation, and 
counter the current 'local' orientation that is so 
pervasive.  He recognized the problem that the Sunnis 
would quickly try to form their own multi-province 
region, raising tensions in Ninewa (which they share 
mainly with the Kurds) and Diyala (shared by Sunnis, 
Shia and Kurds).  The Sunnis could be sure only of 
Anbar and Salah ad Din provinces, and these are, Abdel 
Mehdi admitted, resource poor.  (NOTE:  In a later 
meeting, Vice President Ghazi al-Yawar told Charge 
Jeffrey that the unification of these nine southern 
provinces into a single region would be a catastrophe. 
However, he suggested that moving the Shia towards a 
grouping of nine provinces into three regional 
governments would be acceptable.  END NOTE.) 
 
------------------------ 
PUBLIC EDUCATION: URGENT 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) Abdel Mehdi emphasized the need to educate the 
public, in language that it understands, about 
constitutional issues and expressed concern that there 
is inadequate time for public outreach -- especially 
if the Constitutional Committee takes several more 
weeks before beginning its work.  He welcomed word of 
the resources available through USG funding to help 
with public outreach. 
 
--------------------------------- 
BRINGING SUNNI ARABS INTO PROCESS 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Abdel Mehdi briefly discussed the 15 Sunnis to 
be included on the Constitutional Committee, noting 
that 13 of the 15 had been decided upon.  He stressed 
that it would be important for the Sunni selection 
committee to avoid choices that would excessively 
anger the Shia public.  "We have to be able to defend 
their choices with our own people," Abdel Mehdi 
cautioned.  He acknowledged that the political views 
of those selected would likely be less important than 
their personal histories. 
 
7.  (C) Charge Jeffrey emphasized the need to focus on 
the constitution and use that framework for 
determining how to form a regional structure.  He 
discouraged Abdel Mehdi from promoting the idea of 
establishing a single Shia regional government prior 
to the adoption of the constitution and national 
elections.  He also cautioned that natural resources, 
especially oil revenues, likely would need to remain 
under the national government's authority lest they 
provoke struggles for territory.  Charge Jeffrey also 
urged Abdel Mehdi to counsel flexibility among the 
Shia as they review the final list of Sunni Arabs 
proposed for the constitution committee. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
SHAPE OF FUTURE GOVERNMENT - SPECULATION 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Abdel Mehdi said he envisions the future 
government to be one that is parliamentary in nature 
and unicameral.  It likely would be elected on the 
basis of provincial or local districts.  The 
parliament should choose the prime minister, he 
opined.  He agreed with our observation that such a 
system would give political parties more influence. 
He added that Iraq likely would have a ceremonial 
president whose authorities would be limited. 
 
9.  (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO 
KIRKUK, minimize considered. 
 
 
Satterfield