US embassy cable - 05ALMATY2288

UNCLAS  ALMATY 002288 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN (J.MUDGE) 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: NAZARBAYEVA HIGHLIGHTS THREAT OF "DEMOCRATIC 
PRESSURE" AT ASAR PARTY CONGRESS 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: In a June 7 speech to an Asar Party congress in 
Astana, party leader and first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva 
discussed her vision for the party, the upcoming presidential 
elections, and concerns about opposition forces and Western-led 
democratization efforts.  Most notably, she spoke at length about 
the risk of outside forces exploiting Kazakhstan's weaknesses to 
forcibly "export democracy" and provoke a revolution similar to 
events in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.  She also made 
unguarded comments about unrest in Russia having brought 
President Putin to power.  End summary. 
 
Asar's Plans 
------------ 
 
2. (U) On June 7, the Asar Party held an extraordinary congress 
in Astana, attended by more than 130 delegates from around the 
country.  Party leader Dariga Nazarbayeva gave the main 
presentation.  A significant portion of Nazarbayeva's speech 
focused on Asar's strategies for the presidential elections 
officially scheduled for December 2006.  Uniting with the 
Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, Asar proposed an initiative to 
establish a coalition of pro-presidential political parties, 
known as "National Union of Kazakhstan for Democracy." 
 
3. (U) During press interviews after the party congress, 
Nazarbayeva reasserted that she has no ambitions to run for 
president, claiming to have distanced herself from the role as 
the president's daughter.  Nazarbayeva stated that while her main 
profession in life is to be the daughter of the president, 
maintaining political autonomy as the leader of a pro- 
presidential party is still essential. 
 
 
The Threat of the "Export of Democracy" 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Nazarbayeva did not rule out the possibility that 
Kazakhstan could face a so-called "colored revolution," referring 
to recent political upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, and 
Kyrgyzstan.  She claimed that outside forces could exploit 
weaknesses within the country to achieve what she called "the 
export of democracy."  In her assessment, "Kazakhstan can become 
the target of outside democratic pressure."  Nazarbayeva 
described what she called "a new technology of installing 
controllable governments on territories of strategic interests. 
Today there is no country that does not face a threat of forceful 
democratization from the outside."  She also raised concerns 
about what she called radical political opposition, even claiming 
that the Kazakhstani political opposition is prepared to use 
force to seize power.  She did not articulate any strategy to 
respond to these perceived threats. 
 
Government Reform Proposals 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (U) During her speech, the party leader suggested that 
political reform should be synchronized with the pace of societal 
development.  She dismissed the idea of limiting presidential 
authority and shifting to a model of parliamentary rule, 
insisting that "transition countries belong to a category that 
makes management difficult, even with executive authority." 
Nevertheless, she proposed strengthening the parliament's power 
by expanding its control over the national budget and national 
programs by forming the cabinet on the basis of a parliamentary 
majority.  Some of these changes call for amendments to the 
Constitution, which will require, according to Nazarbayeva, 
"time, nation-wide discussion, and agreement of positions on 
behalf of the country's societal and political forces." 
 
Other Policy Priorities 
----------------------- 
 
6. (U) As part of its anti-corruption strategy, Nazarbayeva said 
that the Asar Party will set up public committees to monitor 
government officials.  These same committees will also serve as 
the backbone for her new coalition of political parties. 
Nazarbayeva enumerated Asar's social and economic priorities as 
the development of civil society structures, free and independent 
press, youth participation in politics, improving education and 
health sectors of the country, addressing concerns about the 
pension system, and support for industry and small and medium 
size enterprises. 
 
7. (U) Speaking about Russian President Vladimir Putin, 
 
 
Nazarbayeva made what appears to have been an unscripted comment 
that the bombings in Moscow and attacks by guerilla forces in 
Dagestan were instrumental in bringing Putin to power.  The 
comment was made when discussing why President Nazabayev's 
successor has not been publicized yet. In her opinion, Putin 
"appeared literally half a year before he became president. A 
very effective PR campaign was organized in response to the 
explosions in Moscow and the war in Chechnya."   Nazarbayeva also 
emphasized that Kazakhstan is the only country in the former 
Soviet Union to have avoided the burdens of terror, inter-ethnic 
conflict, and "vulgar dictators." 
 
9. (SBU) Comment: Nazarbeyeva's speech was a clear example of her 
efforts to balance the need to appear loyal to her father while 
simultaneously calling for limited reforms of the government. 
For instance, she raised fears about a possible "colored" 
revolution initiated from abroad, yet she acknowledged the need 
for government reform to facilitate further democratization.  End 
comment. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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