US embassy cable - 05GABORONE838

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000838 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S JMALONEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BEXP, ECON, EAGR, ETRD, BC, Economy, TRADE 
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR LIBERALIZING BOTSWANA'S 
CATTLE INDUSTRY 
 
 
1.   Summary. The recently-formed Botswana Cattle 
Producer's Association (BCPA) submitted a proposal 
to the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) in late May to 
remove the monopoly of the Botswana Meat Commission 
(BMC) on the exportation of beef.  If the proposal 
were accepted, the beef industry would establish an 
auction system for live weaner calves for sale to 
South Africa.  This system would mean cattle farmers 
could take advantage of the higher prices offered by 
the South African market. It is anticipated that the 
shift to a free border for export of weaners would 
improve ranching and management practices, generate 
better supplies to the Botswana Meat Commission 
(BMC) in the long term, and produce immediate 
economic benefits through the export of live cattle. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  Liberalizing the market in cattle could 
revitalize the cattle industry, which has played an 
important role in Botswana's traditional social and 
economic development.  It is estimated that 20-25 
percent of households in Botswana depend to some 
degree on cattle rearing, either as owners or 
employees.  Income generation from this source 
remains essential to the rural communities.  Yet the 
agricultural industry, which is dominated by the 
cattle industry, has experienced a sustained decline 
and today accounts for a mere 2.4 percent of GDP. 
The impact of improved prices could substantially 
reduce rural poverty and encourage more efficient 
business practices for a key population segment. 
 
Current State of the Cattle Industry 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. The BMC Act gives the BMC a monopoly over the 
export of beef and related products, and prohibits 
the importation of beef.  Through a deal struck in 
the 1980s with the European Union, Botswana's export 
quota for beef is 19,000 tons a year.  The majority 
of the BMC's production is currently sold as frozen 
boneless beef and exported to Europe.  Nevertheless, 
there have been major problems at BMC in recent 
years.  These include a declining number of cattle 
received, excess capacity, and rising losses.  The 
BMC is only operating at about 40 percent capacity. 
Botswana has consistently failed to export enough 
beef to meet the EU quota threshold.  The Chairman 
of the BCPA told EconOff that if the current system 
remains in place, this important sector of the 
economy, which still generates nearly 2 percent of 
Botswana's export revenue, could collapse 
completely. 
 
4. In April 2005, a task force of representatives 
from the MOA, the BMC, the BCPA, and other 
stakeholders, sponsored in part by USAID, 
investigated the potential of the beef export 
market. Its report concluded that South Africa is 
eager to import live weaners from Botswana and could 
function as a sustainable export market.  The 
Botswana Government has already commissioned a 
livestock study to look at ways of improving the 
operations within the industry, and the BMC itself 
recently contracted International Development 
Ireland (IDI) to carry out a strategic review of its 
operations with a view towards possible 
restructuring.  IDI will be meeting with 
stakeholders to establish the effect BMC business 
has on the relevant sectors of society, including 
farmers, and the BCPA is expected to present its 
findings as well as those of the MOA task force to 
the BMC board of directors in late June. 
 
Important Progress: Formation of the BCPA 
--------------------- 
 
5. Despite the ever-present problems in the 
livestock sub-sector and the depth of the sector's 
importance to Batswana society, there has never been 
a nationally representative group for the cattle 
industry in Botswana.  So, in March 2005, with 
assistance from the USAID-funded Southern Africa 
Trade Hub based in Gaborone, the chairpersons of 
regional farmers' associations and other 
stakeholders met in Gaborone with the aim of forming 
the BCPA.  Within this group, an interim committee 
of the heads of the regional associations was 
nominated to guide the BCPA's formation along the 
road with the goal of creating a "vehicle for 
change." The BCPA is intended to function as the 
mouthpiece and reference point for the Botswana 
livestock industry and is to build a constructive 
relationship with the MOA and the GOB. 
 
Prospects for Liberalization 
---------------------------- 
 
6. The MOA supports the proposed weaner export 
system (i.e. male calves that have just been weaned 
that are roughly 9 months old and weigh a maximum of 
260 kg), as well as a restructuring of the BMC and 
has encouraged the BCPA, together with officers of 
the Ministry, to investigate the export proposal 
further and keep the Ministry as well as parliament 
informed of the outcome.  The proposed export to RSA 
could bring additional income: between P4.17 and 
P6.38 per kg of live weight as compared to the fixed 
monopoly prices offered through the BMC (P2.40), 
according to a policy paper commissioned by USAID in 
support of the BCPA's efforts. The MOA remains 
concerned, however, about the continued viability of 
the BMC.  While the USAID-funded policy paper states 
that the liberalization could, in fact, help 
revitalize the BMC, any change is still viewed by 
some officials as a direct challenge to the BMC's 
monopoly power, and there is obvious resistance to 
any move to cut it out of the process. 
 
7. At a gathering during the public presentation of 
the USAID policy paper, the CEO of the BMC observed 
that the decline in the cattle industry resulted 
from management problems among farmers and an 
unwillingness to sell cows to the BMC, which has 
excess capacity and has been running at a loss for 
the past few years. He seemed to be blaming the 
farmers for the BMC's failures, but he did say that 
if the liberalization would move the beef sector 
forward, then he would support it.  Importantly, 
there is GOB support for change. The Minister of 
Trade and Industry, Mr. Daniel Neo Moroka, told the 
audience simply, "We need to liberalize the market." 
 
8. The next step requires action by parliament to 
eliminate the monopoly powers of the BMC and allow 
the export of live weaners. Given the fact that the 
IDI study on possible BMC restructuring and the 
MOA's livestock study are still not complete, it 
appears unlikely that any immediate action will be 
taken on the liberalization.  However, the BCPA is 
pressing its case and is meeting with the House of 
Chiefs, a particularly influential body when it 
comes to cattle and rural practice.  The BCPA has 
also received a good deal of positive, nationwide 
press coverage for its efforts. 
 
9. Given the crisis in which the cattle industry 
finds itself, and important political support, the 
prospects for successfully liberalizing the market 
are promising.  Successful liberalization would 
score a feather in the cap of the Trade Hub as well. 
It would present a model for effective engagement by 
USAID and the Hub in driving policy reforms that 
promote economic growth and regional trade 
integration.  From guiding the BCPA's formation, and 
funding a fact-finding mission to Namibia to examine 
its cattle auction system as part of the MOA task 
force, to commissioning the independent policy paper 
supporting the BCPA's objectives, the Hub has 
successfully supported a locally driven quest for 
changing market policies to revive the cattle 
industry in Botswana. 
AROIAN