US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK4001

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y 
CHANGING PARAGRAPH NUMBERING AND CLASSIFICATION MARKINGS 
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SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, PGOV, TH 
SUBJECT: THAKSIN RUNS INTO POLITICAL TURBULENCE 
 
REF: BANGKOK 3852 
 
1.  (SBU)  Just over four months since his massive election 
victory, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is looking much 
less like the invincible politician who easily swept back 
into power.  The opposition is tenaciously pursuing 
corruption questions regarding purchase of security equipment 
for the massive new airport being constructed on Bangkok's 
fringes and that story is in the Thai and English headlines 
every day.  Transport Minister and Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
financier Suriya Jungrungreangkit is headed for a bruising 
Parliamentary debate over his management (although not his 
personal involvement in corruption) which will reflect badly 
on Thaksin.  To make matters worse, long disgruntled TRT 
faction leader Sanoh Thienthong is openly threatening to 
leave the party, and angling for an expulsion (versus 
voluntary withdrawal), which would protect his member of 
Parliament (MP) status.  It is a long way from that point 
still, but if Sanoh can take enough people into the 
opposition camp, then the Administration's debunkers would 
have enough votes under the 1997 Constitution to force 
Thaksin,s ministers to face embarrassing impeachment 
hearings.  End Summary. 
 
TRANSPORT MINISTER DUE FOR A GRILLING 
 
2.  (U)  Thaksin's administration continues to catch the 
glare of public scrutiny over allegations of corrupt 
practices.  Opposition Democrat Party (DP) and Chart Thai 
Party (CT) leaders Abhisit Vejjajiva and Barnharn Silpa-archa 
have agreed to file a no-confidence motion against the 
Transport Minister Suriya Chungrungruangkit over the CTX 
scandal in the new international airport project.  They 
delivered the motion to the House Speaker on June 15.  The 
debate date has not been decided, but will likely be in the 
last week of June. 
 
SANOH POLITICAL THORN IN THAKSIN'S SIDE; WANG NAM YEN FACTION 
IS RESTIVE 
 
3.  (U)  TRT faction leader Sanoh Thienthong is continuing 
his very public feuding with Thaksin Shinawatra, going out of 
his way to provoke him.  In a recent interview he derided 
Thaksin's "fancy populist policies" as simply political 
promises that will increase the personal debts of farmers and 
villagers.  In addition to slamming the Prime Minister's core 
policies, Sanoh is making the extravagant claim that the 1997 
Constitution "has enabled one single person to take over the 
whole country."  (Note: Sanoh has long bridled under the rule 
that a candidate must be a member of a political party for a 
minimum 90 days to be eligible to run for the Parliament.  An 
MP who voluntarily leaves a party loses his seat in 
Parliament.  However, if an MP is expelled from his party and 
the Constitutional Court rules that the party was 
"undemocratic" in taking that step, the MP retains their 
seat.  This accounts in part for Sanoh's strategy of baiting 
Thaksin and for also associating himself with such popular 
causes among Senators as an end to the one consecutive term 
limit for Senators. End Note.)  Thaksin, for his part, is 
trying to appear above the fray, telling reporters that 
governing the country is a higher priority than treating with 
Sanoh. 
 
TRT ROILED BY SANOH'S ACTIONS 
 
4.  (U)  But Sanoh's antics are having their impact.  A TRT 
MP and Wang Nam Yen faction member from Ubon Ratchathani, 
Sombat Ratno, vowed publicly last weekend to follow Sanoh to 
another party if the latter is ejected from the TRT.  Sombat 
claimed that more than 40 other faction members would follow 
suit.  The faction will discuss its position this week. 
Meanwhile, another Wang Nam Yen member from Ubon Ratchathani, 
Kriang Kaltinan, has reportedly denied rumors that Sanoh 
would resign from the TRT, pointing out that what Sanoh had 
actually said to the public was he wouldn't care if the TRT 
expelled him because of his acrimonious speech in the last 
House meeting (Ref. A).  Observers here speculate that Sanoh 
could precipitate his expulsion by ordering his faction 
members to vote against Transport Minister Suriya 
Chungrungruankit in the censure debate. 
 
CABINET SHUFFLE SOON? 
 
5.  (U)  Government Whip Committee Spokesperson Watthana 
Sengphairo said on June 13 that if Sano Thienthong and his 
Wang Nam Yen faction members vote in the coming censure 
motion against Transport Minister Suriya Chungrungruangkit in 
defiance of the party's line, they will certainly face TRT 
disciplinary punishment.  The Deputy Interior Minister, who 
is also Chairman of the TRT MPs, Somchai Sunthonwat has 
stated that a cabinet reshuffle is likely soon, but denied it 
is because of the pressure by the opposition, or the Wang Nam 
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Yen, or any corruption problem in the government. Somchai 
optimistically predicted that Sanoh and his faction will not 
vote against the TRT in the upcoming National Counter 
Corruption Commission (NCCC) constitutional amendment 
proceedings (Ref A.). 
 
WHY THE TRT DOES NOT WANT TO FORCE SANOH OUT 
 
6.  (SBU)  A source in the TRT leadership told the Embassy on 
June 10 that the party does not want to expel Sanoh and his 
faction members out of fear that if they keep their MP status 
they would join the opposition.  Currently the opposition 
Democrat Party (DP) and  Chart Thai (CT) hold 121 seats, just 
short of the requisite 125 votes to formally request the 
Senate to remove a cabinet member (section 304 of the 
Constitution).  The DP and CT command 121 votes.  A move by 
Sanoh and even a portion of his faction to the opposition (if 
the opposition would accept the volatile Sanoh) would give it 
the votes to bring potentially damaging impeachment 
proceedings against Thaksin's ministers.  According to the 
TRT source, the plan now is to let Sanoh stew impotently 
within the party, despite his attacks on Thaksin. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Comment:  Thaksin is looking his most 
bedeviled at least since his assets concealment case in the 
opening weeks of his administration.  Apart from the ongoing 
airport purchase scandal and Sanoh Thienthong's open 
rebellion, Thailand has had a long drought, oil prices are up 
and economic growth forecasts are being scaled back. The 
recovery from the tsunami and news of an almost daily toll of 
separatist violence in the Thai southern border provinces 
have hit tourism numbers.  The press seems emboldened by 
Thaksin's troubles.  From his recent image as a political 
Midas set to shape Thailand's future for some years to come, 
Thaksin for now is finding himself in the unfamiliar 
situation of being on the defensive.  End Comment. 
BOYCE