US embassy cable - 05MANILA2777

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002777 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/PD, INR/EAP, INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: ARROYO UNDER PRESSURE TO EXPLAIN TAPES 
 
REF: A. MANILA 2738 
 
     B. MANILA 2731 
     C. MANILA 2730 
     D. MANILA 2689 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The Philippine Congress is planning 
inquiries into an audiotape that the opposition says 
implicates President Arroyo in electoral fraud.  Arroyo -- 
defending herself -- has condemned "irresponsible detractors" 
and her press secretary has announced that she has no plans 
to appear before committee hearings.  The GRP has begun the 
process of filing charges against the former official who 
claimed last week that he was the source of the tapes.  In 
another potential blow to Arroyo, her trusted Secretary of 
Agriculture, Arthur Yap, has been charged with tax evasion. 
Arroyo is under considerable pressure to explain the tapes, 
including from supporters who fear that she will lose 
credibility as questions about her role linger.  End Summary. 
 
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Congress Plans Inquiries into Tapes 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The Philippine Congress is planning inquiries into an 
audiotape that the opposition says implicates President 
Arroyo in electoral fraud (ref B).  Although on recess until 
July 25, House leaders decided to initiate a joint committee 
investigation into the making of the audiotape, its contents, 
and the circumstances of its release during a June 15 
Executive Committee session.  Ronaldo "Ronnie" Puno, a 
congressman with close Malacanang links, told Acting Polcouns 
June 15 that "the general idea of the hearings will be to 
determine whether there are any grounds for impeachment." 
Puno quickly added that he did not think the President had 
done anything illegal.  The joint committee will be presided 
over by Representative Gilbert Remulla, who is generally 
considered an Arroyo ally.  Although the list of witnesses is 
not yet complete, there are reports that Malacanang Press 
Secretary Ignacio Bunye and National Bureau of Investigation 
 
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(NBI) Director Reynaldo Wycoco will be invited to attend the 
first hearing on June 21.  There are also reports that the 
joint committee plans to invite the President (see below), 
First Gentleman Jose Miguel "Mike" Arroyo, and former 
Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Commissioner Virgilio 
Garcillano to subsequent hearings. 
 
3.  (C) Garcillano could be a key witness.  He is apparently 
the person President Arroyo is speaking with in the 
audiotape, though he has denied his involvement in the 
matter.  For the past several days, he has been out of touch, 
staying at his residence in Bukidnon, Mindanao, according to 
sources.  Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson told Acting Polcouns 
on June 16 that he thought that Garcillano would be reluctant 
to appear before the joint committee on a voluntary basis and 
that a subpoena might have to be issued to ensure his 
participation.  Garcillano's long and controversial history 
as COMELEC Director in Mindanao has been the subject of 
intense scrutiny, and many observers have speculated that his 
testimony could be crucial in the building of a case for or 
against the President.  In light of this, contacts have noted 
that President Arroyo has a key decision to make on whether 
to re-appoint Garcillano a COMELEC commissioner since his 
commission just ended and is up for renewal. 
 
4.  (C) Calls for action in the Senate came from both 
opposition and pro-administration senators.  Minority leader 
Sen. Aquilino Pimentel -- who has already called for Arroyo 
to resign -- asked for an immediate investigation by the 
National Defense and Security Committee, but Chairman Sen. 
Rodolfo Biazon has been reluctant to advance the proposal, 
fearing a "witch-hunt."  Pro-Administration Senator Miriam 
Defensor-Santiago has asked Arroyo to call a special session 
of Congress, and influential senators, Franklin Drilon (the 
Senate President) and Manuel "Mar" Roxas, have publicly 
indicated their basic agreement on the need for a Senate 
inquiry.  In his meeting with Acting Polcouns, Lacson said he 
believed there would be a Senate hearing "sooner rather than 
later," although he felt that pro-Administration senators -- 
who are in the majority -- might act "to protect" the 
president and "not let the whole truth come out."  (Note: 
The House and Senate are also looking into accusations that 
members of the First Family, though not the President 
herself, were involved in profit-taking from illegal 
gambling.  Further hearings are planned and various GRP 
agencies are investigating the charges.) 
 
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Presidential Reaction 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Stepping into the fray, Arroyo condemned what she 
called "irresponsible detractors" in a June 16 speech. 
Arroyo also railed against what she called "destabilizers," 
attacking them for going "too far this time."  She insisted 
that her administration was making progress in moving its 
reform platform forward and that the economy was making 
gains.  Arroyo said she would continue to focus on her agenda 
despite the criticism she is under.  Also, on June 16, 
Malacanang Press Secretary Bunye announced that the President 
had no intention of appearing before any Congressional 
hearings.  Bunye also indicated that the President had no 
plans to address the tape issue in a specific manner, 
asserting that there was no reason for her to do so as no one 
had shown that she was involved in any improprieties.  Puno 
told Acting Polcouns, however, that  the President was 
considering making a speech on national TV in the near future 
meant to rebut charges that she was involved in electoral 
fraud. 
 
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Charges Filed Against Former Official 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The GRP has begun the process of filing charges 
against the former official who claimed last week on live TV 
that he was the source of the tapes.  On June 13, The NBI 
recommended that the Department of Justice (DOJ) file charges 
against former NBI deputy director Samuel Ong, asserting that 
Ong's intention was "to incite" citizens to rise up against 
the President and force her to resign.  Ong remains at large 
at this time -- the DOJ panel investigating the case has yet 
to file formal charges and issue an arrest warrant. 
 
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Agriculture Secretary Charged 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) In another potential blow to Arroyo, her trusted 
Secretary of Agriculture, Arthur Yap, has been charged with 
 
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tax evasion.  The Ombudsman's Office has confirmed press 
reports that Yap, 39, -- who is close to Mike Arroyo and was 
once a top student of the President's when she taught at the 
Ateneo de Manila University -- and his father were charged 
this week with non-payment of USD 72,000 in taxes in 1997-98. 
 The taxes were generated from a real estate transaction that 
Yap and his father were involved in during the 1990s. 
Secretary Cesar Purisima of the Department of Finance, which 
 
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oversees the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), the body that 
filed the charges, publicly stated: "There are no sacred cows 
in our campaign against tax evasion."  For his part, 
Secretary Yap -- who does not have a "Mr. Clean" reputation 
 
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-- has heatedly denied the charges, while Malacanang has said 
it will not interfere in the matter and supports a full 
inquiry. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
8.  (C) Arroyo is under considerable pressure to explain the 
tapes, which are quickly becoming the stuff of popular legend 
in the Philippines.  Despite GRP warnings that the tapes and 
their reproduction are illegal, audio versions are now widely 
circulating on the internet and freely sold on street 
corners.  Snippets of the tapes featuring what certainly 
seems to be the President's voice have even been re-mixed 
with music to make what is becoming a very popular ring tone 
for cell phones.  Providing an opposition perspective, Sen. 
Lacson says the President has a conundrum in discussing the 
tapes:  "If she admits it's her voice, then she has to resign 
(because she is discussing electoral fraud).  If she denies 
it, she's lying."  Supporters of the President believe that 
the opposition is exaggerating the situation, and that the 
President simply needs to explain whether or not it is her 
voice and, if so, what she is saying.  Supporters add, 
however, -- and most observers would agree -- that she has to 
take steps to address the matter one way or the other because 
her credibility is at stake. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
BELLARD