US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1079

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  OPPOSITION PREDICTS PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS IN SEVERAL MONTHS 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1073 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) In a June 17 meeting, Karu Jayasuriya, Deputy Leader 
of the opposition United National Party (UNP), told poloff 
that while none of the major parties wants polls right now, 
he "would not be surprised" if President Chandrika 
Kumaratunga called parliamentary elections in "three or four 
months."  The UNP's preferred scenario, he said, would be 
presidential elections in November 2005.  Faced with growing 
voter dissatisfaction at the rising cost of living, the 
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) may have used disagreement 
with the President over the so-called "joint mechanism" as a 
pretext to leave the government, Jayasuriya suggested.  While 
the UNP supports the concept of a structure to coordinate 
tsunami relief, he expressed personal reservations about some 
 
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purported features of the agreement, and noted that the 
President's continued unwillingness to publish the document 
was fueling suspicion and fear.  End summary. 
 
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UNP WANTS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 
BUT EXPECTS PARLIAMENTARY POLLS 
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2.  (C) In a June 17 meeting, Karu Jayasuriya, Deputy Leader 
of the United National Party (UNP), told poloff that rather 
than having "another shaky government"--which he believed 
certain to result from another parliamentary election--the 
best option before the nation now is to hold presidential 
elections at the end of 2005.  The country needs strong 
leadership, he emphasized.   The UNP's preferred scenario is 
unlikely to transpire, however, he conceded, because certain 
interpretations of the Constitution give President 
Kumaratunga two full six-year terms as President, making 
elections not due until the end of 2006. 
 
3.  (C) None of the major parties, including the Janatha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), wants to face parliamentary 
elections right now, Jayasuriya said.  Nonetheless, he said 
he "would not be surprised" if the President called elections 
in "three or four months."  The reason, he speculated, is 
that Kumaratunga is not yet ready to call an end to her 
political life and, facing the end of her presidential term, 
may decide to extend her political longevity as Prime 
Minister or Leader of the Opposition.  "It might even be 
better for her to get into the opposition" right now, 
Jayasuriya added, given the difficulties she encountered 
running a coalition government.  She might also settle for 
the post of Prime Minister--which wields significantly less 
power than that of the President--if she could insert a 
puppet as President--he suggested Buddhist Affairs Minister 
Ratnasiri Wickremenayake--who could be counted on to do her 
bidding, Jayasuriya predicted.  Kumaratunga would never allow 
current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse into that post, he 
emphasized, because she regards Rajapakse as a threat to her 
dynastic ambitions for her children. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Jayasuriya claimed that the UNP had been making 
some gains in winning back voters after the 2004 elections; 
the JVP had also made impressive inroads, primarily into the 
SLFP's rural voter base. The net loser at the next polls 
would be the SLFP, he predicted (not surprisingly). 
(Comment:  The UNP is apparently wasting no time in preparing 
for the possibility of upcoming polls.  Having just completed 
a trip down south, Jayasuriya told poloff that he was 
traveling over the next few days to districts in the 
northwest.  End comment.) 
 
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JVP DECISION: 
PRINCIPLED STAND OR CUTTING ITS LOSSES? 
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5.  (C) The JVP "acquired a lot of political strength and 
achieved a lot" during its 14 months in government, 
Jayasuriya asserted, but the spiraling cost of living was 
beginning to lose the JVP ground among its rural voter base. 
  The JVP had been unable to fulfill the high expectations of 
the largely rural, nationalist voters who had helped put them 
in power, Jayasuriya continued.  He pointed to the JVP's loss 
in the April cooperative board election in Tissamaharama, 
Hambantota--where the JVP controls the local council--as a 
crucial litmus test.  "Had the JVP stayed (in the alliance) 
longer, the damage would have been more critical," Jayasuriya 
commented.  The Marxists may have seized on the joint 
mechanism as a pretext to leave the alliance, he indicated. 
"The JVP plays to the gallery," he observed.  By fixating on 
the national sovereignty/territorial integrity issues raised 
by the controversial joint mechanism, the JVP can appeal to 
Sinhalese nationalism while diverting scrutiny from the 
lackluster performance of the economy. 
 
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WHAT IS IN THAT DOCUMENT? 
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6.  (C) Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe told the 
President the UNP supports the concept of a mechanism on 
tsunami relief as long as such a mechanism is consistent with 
 
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the Oslo Declaration, Jayasuriya confirmed.  That said, it is 
difficult for the UNP to support a document that its 
leadership has never seen, he emphasized.  He then proceeded 
to enumerate a number of personal reservations about what he 
understands to be some of its features. It was "bad 
marketing" for the government to depict itself as the 
representative of the Sinhalese community, he charged; the 
government should represent all communities.  Why is the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) given a voice in 
tsunami reconstruction in territories not under its control? 
 
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The LTTE controls only 49 of 319 village councils in the 
affected area.  (Note:  The JVP has expressed the same 
concerns to us.)  One percent of the Sri Lankan Muslim 
population was lost in the tsunami, Jayasuriya said.  If any 
community deserves greater representation in the mechanism, 
it is the Muslims.  Finally--and most important--why is the 
President keeping the contents of the agreement out of the 
public eye?  People are assuming there is something "bad" in 
it she does not want revealed, he said.  He added that he had 
heard many of these concerns voiced by various non-JVP 
audiences in the south--he cited a group of retired civil 
servants and a group of lawyers--during his public meetings 
over the past few days. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) The UNP may not want parliamentary elections right 
now, but its leadership is obviously (and wisely) preparing 
for them.  That presumably non-JVP members of the public are 
using the Marxists' arguments against the joint mechanism is 
a testament to the success of the JVP propaganda machine. 
Some analysts have suggested that the President's refusal to 
share the text of the agreement with the JVP injured the 
Marxists' pride and played a major role in their decision to 
leave the government.  Kumaratunga's continued refusal to 
share the text with the public is now fueling fears that the 
agreement contains damaging concessions to the Tigers.  The 
longer the President delays signing the agreement, the more 
vociferous these voices and the more ingrained these 
suspicions will become. 
 
LUNSTEAD