US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1058

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR EUR/CACEN, RPM ABAEZ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015 
TAGS: PARM, PGOV, PREL, PBTS, AM, GG, RU 
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN ARMS TRANSFER FROM GEORGIA TO ARMENIA 
UNDERWAY 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 1020 B) BAKU 855 
 
Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Armenian officials have confirmed news reports that 
the transfer of materiel from Russian military bases in 
Georgia to a Russian military base in Armenia is already 
underway.  According to Russian DCM Igor Gromyko, the 
transfer will not violate the conditions of the Conventional 
Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty.  Adding Russian materiel to 
already existing stockpiles does not appear to threaten to 
shift the region's current military balance of power.  On 
June 2, President Kocharian told Senator Hagel that 
permitting this transfer of Russian equipment was "Armenia's 
contribution to resolving" the impasse in Georgia.  End 
Summary. 
 
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REPORTS OF TRANSFERS ALREADY UNDERWAY 
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2. (C) Russian DCM Igor Gromyko told us that Russian and 
Georgian negotiators had "agreed" to a January 1, 2008, 
withdrawal deadline from Georgia.  Armenian news sources 
reported that a cargo train from the Russian base in Batumi 
had already arrived at the Russian base in Gyumri, loaded 
with military materiel.  Armenian Defense Minister Serzh 
Sargsian told visiting Senator Hagel (ref A) that Armenian 
customs officials had cleared the train at the border, but he 
had no information on the specifics of the cargo. 
Unconfirmed news reports asserted the cargo ranged from 
excess ammunition to long-range missiles to other "military 
hardware." 
 
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DO ADDITIONAL RUSSIAN ARMS REALLY CHANGE ANYTHING? 
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3. (C) According to Gromyko, "weaponry" transferred to Gyumri 
will remain on the Russian base in Gyumri under exclusive 
Russian control.  Gromyko dismissed GOAJ protests (ref B) 
against the base transfers, saying complainers "are few, but 
they bark with loud voices."  Azerbaijan should understand, 
he continued, that "everything is going to remain under 
Russian control," and in clear compliance with the 
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty.  Azerbaijan 
should not try to associate the transfer of weapons to 
anything related to Nagorno-Karabakh, he insisted. 
 
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RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN ARMENIA 
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4. (C) Russia currently has an estimated five-thousand troops 
in Armenia, including approximately two-thousand five-hundred 
border guards, mostly stationed along the Armenia-Turkey 
border.  Russia maintains one military base in Gyumri, 
Armenia, with subunits in Yerevan.  Russia also shares 
facilities and hangars planes at an Armenian base near 
Erebuni. 
 
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COMMENT: STATUS QUO NOT SET TO CHANGE 
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5. (C) During his meeting with President Kocharian, Senator 
Hagel inquired about the issue of transferring Russian 
materiel to Armenian bases.  Kocharian confirmed that he had 
discussed the issue several times with President Putin and 
agreed to permit the transfer of part of the equipment as 
Armenia's "contribution to the solution" of a thorny problem. 
 Kocharian said it was "not a major issue" and did not 
understand Azerbaijan's reaction. 
 
6. (C) The GOAM and Gromyko independently assert that the 
transfer of additional Russian armaments to already-exisiting 
Russian military facilities in Armenia does not change the 
regional balance of power.  We have no reason to doubt that 
the materiel will remain under Russian control.  Provided 
this remains the case and CFE limits are not exceeded, we see 
no measurable impact on the current regional status quo. 
EVANS