US embassy cable - 02AMMAN4506

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: PUBLIC'S UNEASINESS ABOUT DIRECTION OF 
U.S.-JORDANIAN RELATIONSHIP 
 
REF: SECSTATE 139546 
 
Classified By: DCM Gregory L. Berry for Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (S)  Despite healthy bilateral economic, trade, 
political, and military ties, confusion and uncertainty about 
recent developments on both bilateral and regional issues 
have made many Jordanians uneasy about the direction of the 
US-Jordan relationship.  The press has pulled together a 
number of issues -- delays in visa issuance to students, 
public discussion of the MARLO notice of possible MIF 
searches in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aqaba, press speculation 
about U.S. intentions toward Iraq -- as signs of U.S. 
unhappiness with Jordan.  The general edginess of the 
Jordanian public is likely to be a continuing factor in the 
government's calculations on policy pronouncements across the 
board.  End Summary. 
 
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AREN'T YOU OUR FRIENDS ANYMORE? 
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2.  (S)  Several recent events -- U.S. press stories alleging 
that the US is basing troops in Jordan for an offensive 
against Iraq, the controversy over the participation of 
Prince Hassan in a meeting of exiled Iraqi officers in 
London, the public discussion of the month-old announcement 
of possible MIF inspections of ships in the Red Sea, and 
lengthened processing time for visas (see reftel) -- have 
caught the attention of Jordanians both in and out of 
government.  The confluence of these events over the past 
month has caused some Jordanians to wonder about the 
direction of Jordan's relationship with the U.S.  Ongoing 
violence in Israel and the West Bank/Gaza and rising regional 
tension because of speculation about a U.S. military strike 
on Iraq are compounding this uneasiness about the 
U.S.-Jordanian relationship. 
 
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IRAQ: THE GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC 
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3.  (S)  In Jordan, the GOJ has been on the defensive for the 
last month vis-a-vis its position on Iraq.  Jordanian 
officials first scrambled to confront U.S. press stories 
outlining Jordan's alleged role in a U.S. offensive against 
Iraq.  The government's overreaction -- a too-strong denial 
of the presence of U.S. forces in the Kingdom -- and the 
King's ill-considered public statements in London succeeded 
only in convincing many Jordanians (and especially the press) 
that the U.S. media reports of Jordan as a "launching pad" 
for an attack must be true.  Former Crown Prince Hassan's 
highly visible role at a meeting of exiled Iraqi military 
officers in London further fueled speculation that Jordan was 
somehow angling for a Hashemite role after regime change in 
Iraq. 
 
4.  (C)  In this context, MARLO's announcement of the 
possibility of resumed MIF inspections of ships leaving Aqaba 
was given great belated play in the press.  At a time when 
senior GOJ officials -- including the King -- were trying to 
calm a suspicious public about Jordanian policy on Iraq, the 
MIF announcement was widely interpreted as an expression of 
U.S. unhappiness with Jordan or pressure on the GOJ. 
 
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VISAS 
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5.  (C)  Jordanians, particularly those getting ready to send 
their children to the U.S. for education or medical 
treatment, have been surprised and deeply worried by the long 
waits for visas.  The lengthened processing time due to the 
Visas Condor program -- and particularly the Consular 
Section's inability to tell visa applicants when/whether they 
will be permitted to travel -- resulted in several rumors 
claiming that the U.S. had stopped issuing visas to 
Jordanians altogether.  Senior GOJ officials have been 
swamped with requests to intervene with the Embassy to speed 
up visa issuance.  A senior MFA contact complained to us this 
week that the visa issue alone had so distracted GOJ 
officials that many took it as a sign of U.S. unhappiness 
with Jordan.  Our argument that security concerns are 
paramount meets with considerable sympathy in the abstract, 
but the more sophisticated of our contacts insist that an 
American-educated political elite is a key investment in the 
future.  The less sophisticated simply put in a plea for 
children, nieces, nephews, or cousins. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (S)  Many of our interlocutors seem to have given in to 
the worry that recent events represent a negative shift in 
U.S. attitudes towards Jordan -- objective evidence of the 
strength of relations notwithstanding.  In a tense region 
with no relief in sight, anxiety among the public is probably 
inevitable, but is nonetheless a problem for officials 
mapping out responsible policies on the MEPP and Iraq while 
looking over their shoulders at a dissatisfied and uneasy 
public. 
 
 
Gnehm