US embassy cable - 05CAIRO4576

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 004576 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, EG 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER ALLEGES PLOT TO FIX THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) In a June 16 meeting, Ayman Nour, the embattled leader 
of the opposition Ghad Party and presidential candidate, 
alleged to poloff that aides to President Mubarak have 
"persuaded"  Khalid Mohieldin, the 84 year old honorary 
chairman of the leftist Tagammu' Party, to run for president. 
  Mohieldin has been sending mixed signals about his 
intentions ever since he first expressed interest in running 
back in March.  Nour alleged that Mohieldin had agreed to run 
in exchange for a payment of LE 5 million (about USD 862,000) 
and a guarantee of about 20 percent of the vote.  Under the 
deal, Nour asserted, President Mubarak will "take about 70 
percent of the vote" and Mohieldin will take "about 20 
percent." 
 
2. (C) The remaining ten percent of the vote, Nour claimed, 
would be divided among what he predicted would be "about ten 
other candidates," including himself and leaders of small 
opposition parties who will take advantage of the grandfather 
clause in the constitutional amendment ratified in May which 
allows any registered political party to field a candidate in 
the 2005 elections only.  (In future presidential elections, 
according to the terms of the amendment, political parties 
will only be allowed to field candidates if they hold at 
least five percent of the seats in the legislature.)  Nour 
said he had learned of the "transaction" from friends who are 
disillusioned members of the Tagammu' Party, who reportedly 
"confirmed" the story with Kamal al-Shazli, the veteran 
machine politician and deputy Secretary-General of the ruling 
National Democratic Party. 
 
3. (C) Comment: While Nour's story has the hallmarks of 
typical grist from the unceasing Cairo rumor mill, it is 
still plausible.  The GOE has a long and well documented 
history of extensive electoral manipulation and fraud, 
witnessed most recently during the May 25 referendum on the 
amendment to Article 76 of the constitution.  Shazli in 
particular is widely believed in previous elections to have 
promised given parties or interest groups a set number of 
seats, in exchange for various concessions, and is also 
widely thought to have "sold" seats to aspiring MPs to the 
highest bidder. 
 
4. (C) That the GOE would be eager to enlist Mohieldin as an 
opponent to Mubarak makes perfect sense.  Though his leftist 
politics are out of step with the much of the public, he is 
still a widely respected "national figure," a status he 
enjoys as one of the original "Free Officers" who conspired 
to overthrow King Farouk in 1952.  At 84, he makes Mubarak 
look young and sprightly by comparison.  He would seem to fit 
the bill as someone the GOE could describe as a credible, 
worthy opponent but who in fact poses no electoral threat 
whatsoever.  End comment. 
 
 
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State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
 
GRAY