US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1054

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001054 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT. FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: DASHNAKS MANEUVERING FOR POSITION 
 
REF: 04 YEREVAN 1678 
 
Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The Armenian Revolutionary Faction (ARF) Dashnak 
party, as one of the central members of Armenia's governing 
coalition and allied with Minister of Defense Sargsian and 
President Kocharian, has been flexing its not inconsiderable 
muscle on the political landscape and pushing its message and 
agenda more aggressively.  The Dashnaks have renewed their 
efforts to obtain international "Genocide Recognition" and to 
enhance their public profile leading up to the 2007-2008 
elections (likely to be improved by a strong Dashnak showing 
in legislative elections in Nagorno-Karabakh June 19).  As 
the party moves to sharpen its image, both within Armenia and 
abroad, Dashnak rhetoric is only likely to become more 
extreme, as the party looks to play a message that works with 
its target audience.  End Summary. 
 
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"TURKEY SHOULD PAY" 
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2. (C) In marked contrast to President Kocharian's stated 
official GOAM policy which pursues diplomatic relations with 
Turkey "without preconditions," Dashnak international 
organization leaders again called publicly for holding Turkey 
"accountable" for the deaths of Armenians in the final days 
of the Ottoman Empire, during their June 3-4 meeting. 
Although the press characterized the Dashnak statements as a 
change in policy, National Assembly (NA) Dashnak leader Levon 
Mkrtchyan told us that there had been no change, but that the 
party was simply articulating its long-held position more 
forcefully.  While noting that the President has the 
constitutional right to set foreign policy, Giro Manoyan, 
spokesman for the Dashnak party's international bureau, told 
us that they would raise the issue in upcoming coalition 
meetings.  (Note:  In separate meetings, former National 
Security Service Chief David Shahnazarian and current 
Presidential Security Advisor Garnik Isagulyan each 
emphasized the continuing close relationship between the 
Dashnaks and both Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian and 
President Robert Kocharian.  End Note.)  Manoyan confirmed 
for us that the Dashnak position is that Turkey should be 
required to "return territory" and to pay compensation. 
(Note:  Manoyan underlined the fact that this position is 
identical with the Dashnak-affiliated Armenian National 
Committee of America (ANCA).  In a June 8 meeting with the 
Ambassador, local ARF bureau representatives lamented losing 
their "close contact" with the White House, and expressed 
hope that Washington policy makers would be seeking out their 
opinions on a wide range of issues.  End Note.) 
 
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HOVHANISSIAN AN UNLIKELY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
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3. (C) Senior Dashnak politician and Deputy Speaker of the 
National Assembly Vahan Hovhanissian appears to be burnishing 
his image as a potential presidential candidate for 2008.  We 
see recent (positive) speculation about his candidacy in 
Dashnak-controlled media outlets and ARF sniping at one of 
the few serious presidential candidates, National Assembly 
Speaker and Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party leader 
Artur Baghdasaryan (and former protege of Minister of Defense 
Sargsian), as a indication that the Dashnaks may be testing 
the water.  Hovhanissian, an archaeologist who suffered under 
the Soviets when his father defected to the West in the 1960s 
and was imprisoned along with other extreme nationalists 
under former president Ter-Petrossian's regime, commands a 
modest personal following.  Although not tainted by excessive 
scandal, and able to take full advantage of the superior 
Dashnak party organization country-wide, Hovhanissian has 
only limited personal charisma and would be unlikely to do 
well in the elections. 
 
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N-K ELECTIONS A LIKELY BOOST TO THE DASHNAKS 
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4. (C) With the coalition led by the Dashnaks and Movement-88 
(currently in opposition in N-K, and made up of many former 
Dashnaks) likely to win a plurality of seats in the upcoming 
June 19 "parliamentary" elections in Nagorno-Karabakh, we 
expect to see a stronger Dashnak hand in the governing 
coalition in Armenia, and also anticipate a hardening of GOAM 
positions in regard to N-K due to an emboldened Dashnak 
party.  The current party of power in N-K, the Democratic 
Party of Artsakh (DPA), lost Dashnak support when the ARF 
left the N-K coalition following a tiff with N-K "president" 
Ghukasian in 2004 when he failed to "punish" an N-K general 
who had called for territorial concessions in order to 
resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  Shahnazarian told us 
that he expects widespread election fraud in the upcoming 
elections, and claimed that Sargsian, Kocharian and the 
Dashnaks wanted to ensure that Ghukasian was weakened enough 
to gain additional leverage over him and to keep him from 
contemplating a political role in Armenia. 
 
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COMMENT: DASHNAKS ON THE RISE 
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5. (C) As one of the few Armenian political parties with an 
ideology, the Dashnaks are well positioned to take advantage 
of an electoral landscape filled with parties linked to one 
or another uncharismatic leader and are positioning 
themselves to play a greater role in Armenian political life 
in the future. 
 
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BACKGROUND:  WHO ARE THE DASHNAKS? 
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6. (SBU) Founded in 1890 in Tbilisi by Armenian nationalist 
and socialist revolutionaries who operated in the Caucasus 
and Western Armenia, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation 
Dashnaktsutyun (ARF) was first registered in Armenia July 2, 
1991.  The party was subsequently banned December 28, 1994, 
but the GOAM lifted the ban in 1998 (citing changed 
political circumstances).  Key figures include Hrant 
Margarian, Vahan Hovhannisian, Armen Rustamian, Levon 
Mkrtchian, and Aghvan Vardanian.  The ARF operates two 
newspapers, "Yerkir" (Country) and "Hayots Ashkharh" (The 
Armenian World).  ARF controls 11 out of 131 seats in the 
National Assembly. 
 
7. (SBU) The ARF-Dashnaktsutyun has been the most popular 
"traditional" party and the most active political force in 
the Armenian Diaspora.  The Dashnak Party ruled the first 
Armenian Republic of 1918.  In 1920, it ceded power to the 
Communist Party.  Many Dashnaks fled Armenia, while others 
were repressed.  The Dashnak Party was banned in Armenia 
during the Soviet period.  The growth of glasnost during the 
last few years of the USSR allowed the Dashnaks to 
reestablish themselves in Armenia in 1988.  Nevertheless, the 
main ruling body of the party, the Bureau, remains in Athens, 
Greece.  From the outset, the Dashnak Party was the major 
opposition force to the Armenian government in power.  On 
December 28, 1994, President Ter-Petrossian banned the party 
by decree.  He accused the party of criminal activities, drug 
trafficking, assassinations, and fostering of terrorist groups 
(the so-called "Dro" clandestine organization.)  The 
President's decree was followed by a decision of the Supreme 
Court to suspend the Party in January 1995 since it did not 
comply with the country's laws banning party membership of 
non-Armenian citizens.  Several ARF leaders spent several 
years in jail (including Deputy Speaker of Parliament Vahan 
Hovhannisian and the President's National Security Advisor 
Garnik Isagulyan).  After Ter-Petrossian's resignation in 
February 1998, then acting president Kocharian released ARF 
leaders due to the "changed political situation." 
 
8. (SBU) The Dashnak Party is a socialist-nationalist party. 
It sees its ultimate goal as 
pursuing "The Armenian Cause," worldwide recognition of the 
Armenian genocide, and integration of Western and Eastern 
Armenia into one powerful state.  Traditionally, party 
activities have not been transparent.  In the course of its 
history, the party carried out a number of "revenge acts" 
against Turkish diplomats and other citizens.  The ARF 
supports the independent status of Karabakh and any decision 
to promote its independence.  Members of the ARF fought 
actively in the Karabakh conflict and the party had its own 
military units.  Later, when Karabakh and Armenia formed 
regular armies, some of the Dashnak units merged with the 
armies, others were disarmed.  The ARF remains a major 
political force in the Armenian Diaspora, and retains a wide 
support base in Armenia, especially among the youth. 
EVANS