US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1053

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/SNEC, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: NAGORNO KARABAKH'S UPCOMING "PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS" 
 
 
(U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) On June 19 Nagorno Karabakh (N-K) will hold 
its fourth "parliamentary elections."  Eight parties 
(two of which united in a bloc) and independent 
candidates will contest the 22 majoritarian and 11 
party list seats of the "parliament."  The parties with 
the most active election campaigns and with the best 
chances to be elected, are the opposition bloc of the 
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Dashnaks and 
Movement-88, the Democratic Party of Artsakh (DPA) -- 
the current party of power in N-K, and a newly formed 
Free Homeland Party (also referred to as Free Artsakh). 
According to media reports the other nominal 
contestants essentially are not participating in the 
election campaign.  The ARF (a partner in Armenia's 
governing coalition) split away from N-K "president" 
Arkadi Ghukasyan last year, successfully supporting the 
leader of Movement-88 to win the recent election for 
Stepanakert's mayor.  End Summary. 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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2. (SBU) The current legislature consists of a DPA 
faction with 19 members, an ARF faction with 8 members, 
and 6 independent deputies.  The 2005  elections will 
be conducted according to N-K's new Electoral Code, 
adopted in December 2004, which changed the composition 
of the body; now there will be 22 majoritarian and 11 
party list seats in the legislature.  According to the 
head of the N-K Central Electoral Commission Sergey 
Nasibyan there are about 89,000 voters registered in N- 
K, who will vote in 275 precincts of the 22 electoral 
districts. One of those precincts will be in Armenia, 
in the offices of the local N-K representation, where N- 
K "citizens" living in Armenia will be able to vote. 
According to press reports, people living in the 
Lachine and Kelbajar regions of Azerbaijan will also 
take part in the vote. 
 
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THE CONTESTANTS 
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3. (SBU) The parties that will take part in the 
elections are: 
 
-- Bloc of ARF and Movement-88 parties; 
-- Democratic Party of Artsakh; 
-- Free Homeland Party; 
-- Moral Rebirth Party; 
-- Social Justice Party; 
-- Our Home is Armenia Party; and 
-- Communist Party of Artsakh. 
 
-- The ARF is a very strong player in N-K.  Until 2004 
it was pro-Ghukasyan, supporting him in the 1997 and 
2002 "presidential elections."  During the 2004 
election of Local Self Government bodies, ARF supported 
the leader of the opposition Movement-88 party Edik 
Aghabekyan, who was elected Stepanakert's Mayor.  In 
press reports, the ARF explained breaking ties with 
Ghukasyan by noting that Ghukasyan did not punish an N- 
K general who had discussed the possibility of 
returning the occupied territories to Azerbaijan. 
Shortly after the mayor's election, Ghukasyan re- 
shuffled some posts, and dismissed the ARF "Minister" 
of Education, Culture and Sports, Armen Sargsyan, 
whereupon the ARF recalled all of its members from N-K 
governmental posts, and expelled those who did not 
comply from the party.  During the 2004 local elections 
the ARF had won in roughly 50 villages and communities. 
The ARF's hard-line position on a possible resolution 
of the N-K conflict is one of the party's key issues. 
According to Grisha Hayrapetyan, the representative 
from the Artsakh ARF Central Committee, no concessions 
are possible in resolving the conflict. 
 
-- Movement-88 was created in February 2004 and is led 
by the Mayor of Stepanakert Edik Aghabekyan.  Gegham 
Baghdasaryan, the number two in the party, claims that 
they do not want to get rid of Ghukasyan, but instead 
want the legislature to balance his authority.  In 
reference to the solution of the N-K conflict, 
Aghabekyan claims that first Yerevan-Stepanakert 
relations should be clarified, as Stepanakert cannot be 
Yerevan's annex.  Movement-88's goal is the complete 
independence of N-K and members note that that would be 
impossible without concessions; entertaining the 
possibility of returning the occupied territories, 
except for Lachine and Kelbajar. 
 
-- The Democratic Party of Artsakh (DPA) was created in 
2000 and is the party of power in N-K.  It is strictly 
pro-government; its members are mostly "ministers" and 
other officials.  In the current legislature they hold 
19 seats.  The DPA considers the N-K issue "already 
solved;" placing priority on the recognition of N-K. 
 
-- The Free Homeland Party was created in January 2005, 
and its co-presidents are Rudik Hiusnunts, the head of 
"Armenian Church-Loving Brotherhood," Araik 
Hayrapetyanm, owner of "Gharabagh Gold" Company, Artur 
Tovmasyan, former chairman of the NK Parliament, and 
Arpat Avanesyan, chair of the Physics department of 
Artsakh University.  Some newspapers have reported that 
this is a pro-governmental party, and note the party's 
oligarchic ties.  The Free Homeland Party calls for 
retaining the current territorial status quo in any 
possible solution to N-K. 
EVANS