US embassy cable - 05LILONGWE508

C O N F I D E N T I A L LILONGWE 000508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA FRANCES CHISHOLM 
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS/AFRICA/BEN CUSHMAN 
MCC FOR KEVIN SABA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, KDEM, PGOV, KCOR, MI, Political, President 
SUBJECT: MALAWI IMPEACHMENT RUMORS SWIRL 
 
 
Classified By: CDA D. Gilmour for reasons 1.4 b and d 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Long-standing rumors of an impeachment attempt in 
Parliament have gained some credibility recently.  The 
President's former party is said to be ready to bring the 
issue to the floor soon, and the President's office is 
canvassing diplomatic missions for legal help.  At this 
point, the main danger is not an impeachment attempt itself 
but the distraction from the parliamentary agenda.  End 
summary. 
 
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RUMORS GAINING SOME CREDIBILITY 
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2. (U) For months there have been rumors of an impeachment 
attempt in the current session of Parliament.  According to 
these rumors, former President Bakili Muluzi intends to 
persuade Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leader John Tembo to 
ally with Muluzi's own United Democratic Front (UDF) to table 
an impeachment motion against President Bingu wa Mutharika. 
The grounds of the motion would be irregularities in the past 
election, which allegedly allowed Mutharika to edge out Tembo 
in the Central Region. 
 
3. (C) The rumors have acquired more credibility in recent 
days.  The Parliament voted today to amend the National 
Assembly's rules to make it easier to introduce a debate on 
impeachment.  This means a debate on the topic may well 
happen.  That said, impeachment itself requires a 2/3 
majority, which seems much less likely. 
 
4. (C) Somewhat more alarming is that the Office of the 
President and Cabinet today sent a representative to the 
Embassy and to at least one other diplomatic mission to ask 
for legal assistance in case the impeachment motion should be 
brought and passed.  The representative claimed that Muluzi 
has been actively seeking to bribe MPs to support 
impeachment. 
 
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PARLIAMENTARIANS SEEM FOCUSED ON BUDGET 
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5. (C) An informal meeting on 15 June between the Charge and 
several key parliamentarians indicated only that a serious 
debate on the budget is in store for next week.  We saw few 
hints that Parliament is intent on bringing down the 
government or seriously weighing new elections (a 
no-confidence vote is not an option under the Malawian 
constitution).  Rather, our interlocutors seemed focused on 
the nuts and bolts of the budget debate and the 
administration's development agenda, with which they are in 
general agreement. 
 
 
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COMMENT: LEGISLATIVE AGENDA THE MOST LIKELY CASUALTY 
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6. (C) While the President's level of concern is distressing, 
it still appears that impeachment is not likely.  The issue 
may come to debate, and the UDF may offer evidence that it 
rigged the 2004 elections.  But most parliamentarians appear 
to understand the economic implications of sending a signal 
to the world that Malawi is not politically stable.  The most 
likely impact of the debate, if it happens at all, is that 
Parliament will once again fail to get through its agenda, 
passing the budget and nothing more.  The facts that 
Parliament is on the cusp of claiming a role as a serious 
partner in government, and that this Parliament has far more 
gravitas than is usually the case here, argue against extreme 
action. 
GILMOUR