US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1073

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  JVP JUMPS SHIP; PRESIDENT PADDLING 
FURIOUSLY 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1065 
 
Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  As threatened, on June 16 coalition 
partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) left the United 
People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government after President 
Chandrika Kumaratunga refused to meet its demand to abandon 
the so-called "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  The JVP's defection 
leaves the President with the unpleasant prospect of heading 
a minority government.  Possible next steps include seeking 
support from the main opposition party, proroguing Parliament 
when it reconvenes on June 22, or presenting the mechanism to 
Parliament.  The JVP, meanwhile, has invited all patriotic 
Sri Lankans to form a new alliance.  It appears that the 
party, known for its strategic thinking and long-term 
planning, may have miscalculated for once.  End summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
JVP PULLS PLUG ON UPFA PARTNERSHIP 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) As threatened, at 8:00 a.m. local time on June 16 the 
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) left the United People's 
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government after President Chandrika 
Kumaratunga did not meet the party's June 15 deadline to 
desist from pursuing a "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  Four JVP 
Cabinet Ministers formally resigned their portfolios (Culture 
and Heritage; Agriculture and Irrigation; Small Industries; 
and Fisheries) later in the morning.  The JVP defection costs 
Kumaratunga's government 39 seats in Parliament (leaving her 
as the head of a minority government), as well as control of 
all seven Provincial Councils.  In a letter to JVP General 
Secretary Tilvin Silva on June 15 (the contents of which were 
 
SIPDIS 
read out over television that evening), the President urged 
the party not to abandon the alliance because of 
misunderstandings over the joint mechanism, the text of which 
the JVP had never even seen. 
 
---------------------- 
PATRIOTS ONLY, PLEASE 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (U) At a press conference the morning of June 16, the JVP 
leadership claimed that it had been forced to leave the 
alliance because the proposed joint mechanism threatened Sri 
Lanka's national sovereignty.  Party leaders pledged to form 
a new alliance and invited patriots nationwide--including any 
disaffected sons of the soil from Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka 
Freedom Party (SLFP) or the mainstream opposition United 
National Party (UNP) to join.  JVP Leader Somawansa 
Amarasinghe expressed regret for not having been able to 
fulfill all of the promises the party made during the last 
election, but pledged to do so when the JVP regains power at 
an unspecified time in the future. (Note: None of the five 
JVP speakers--Amarasinghe, Silva, Propaganda Secretary Wimal 
Weerawansa, and former Ministers Anura Dissanayake and Lal 
Kantha--made any reference to impending elections or plans to 
bring down the government.  End note.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
WHEN PARLIAMENT RECONVENES: 
WHETHER TO PROROGUE OR POLITICK? 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  With no immediate JVP move apparent to topple the 
government, the next crucial date for the President will 
occur when Parliament reconvenes on June 22.  As noted 
reftel, observers speculate that Kumaratunga may choose to 
prorogue Parliament, thereby gaining up to two months of 
breathing space, or may attempt to bring the joint mechanism 
before Parliament for a vote.  The Attorney General told us 
on June 16 that he is not entirely sure how that might be 
done--he is still "studying it"--but suggested that the 
government might bring the proposed agreement as a motion 
before Parliament.  The motion could then be carried by a 
simple majority, which, given the pledges of support from the 
UNP and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) for the joint 
mechanism, the government should have sufficient votes to 
secure.  On the other hand, if the government pursues this 
course of action, events are unlikely to transpire in such a 
simple, straightforward fashion.  For example, before a vote 
takes place, the motion could be challenged before the 
Supreme Court, a step the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) has 
already vowed to undertake if the joint mechanism comes 
before Parliament. 
 
-------------- 
FAST FINISHED 
-------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Acting on a court order, police removed fasting 
monk Ven. Dambara Amila Thero from the railway station in 
downtown Colombo late June 15 (Reftel), despite vociferous 
objections from his surrounding supporters, and took him to 
the hospital.  The streets of Colombo were quiet on June 16, 
although police sources expressed concern about reports that 
the JVP-aligned student union was attempting to mobilize 
students from all 13 universities for an anti-mechanism 
protest in the capital on June 17. 
 
--------- 
COMMENT 
--------- 
 
6.  (C) No one--including the JVP--wants elections now, and 
Kumaratunga faces the unattractive prospect of running a 
minority government for the immediate future.  Running a 
minority government, however, may be only marginally more 
difficult than running a government with a contentious 
coalition partner that opposed nearly every initiative she 
proposed.  Kumaratunga is often criticized (usually with good 
grounds) for short-term, ad hoc thinking, impulsiveness and 
inattention to detail.  This proclivity usually puts her at a 
disadvantage with adversaries like the LTTE and JVP, both 
masters of long-term, strategic planning.  This time, 
however, it looks like the JVP may have miscalculated, 
assuming Kumaratunga's cave-ins to JVP pressure on a number 
of previous showdowns (e.g., restructuring of the electricity 
utility, privatization of university education) meant that 
she would follow suit on this issue as well.  But the JVP can 
be expected to try to turn this miscalculation to advantage, 
using its spare time--and enhanced position as 
ultra-nationalists--to build up its ever-expanding base. 
LUNSTEAD