US embassy cable - 05CARACAS1822

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001822 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND BARTON 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015 
TAGS: ENRG, MNUC, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: NUCLEAR VENEZUELA A LONG WAY OFF 
 
REF: CARACAS 1667 
 
Classified By: Economic Counselor Richard M. Sanders. 
Reasons:  1.4(b)  and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C)  In public comments on May 22, President Chavez raised 
the prospect of Venezuela (with Iranian assistance) 
developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.  But to 
undertake any new nuclear program the GOV would have to start 
from scratch.  Venezuela's small research reactor, built in 
the 1950's has long been shut down.  Basic geological 
research to find uranium deposits has been abandoned.  An 
early 1980's proposal for the state power company to build a 
nuclear generation station never went anywhere.  Large 
infusions of cash would be needed to start a new nuclear 
program, but the main limiting condition on developing any 
nuclear capacity is the absence of a cadre of knowledgeable 
scientists and engineers, which could take years to create. 
End summary. 
 
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Chavez Speaks, Then is Silent 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  On his May 22 "Alo, Presidente" weekly television 
broadcast, President Chavez said that Venezuela was 
interested in developing a nuclear program "to diversify 
energy sources" (reftel).   He said that unlike the U.S., 
which possesses and has used nuclear weapons, a Venezuelan 
program would be for "development, life and peace."  He 
stated that in addition to working with Latin American 
countries such as Brazil and Argentina, Venezuela would look 
to cooperate with Iran, adding that he was sure that Iran was 
"not making any atomic bomb, but was moving ahead on research 
in the nuclear area for scientific and technical 
advancement."  Chavez's remarks received wide coverage both 
domestically and internationally, with Brazil in particular 
stressing that it would not participate in any nuclear 
research activities with Iran, a country that does not accept 
international safeguards.  Other than his May 22 remarks, 
Chavez has made no further reference to this subject. 
 
3.  (U)  After the initial round of controversy, comment has 
ceased regarding the prospect of a "nuclear Venezuela" with 
the exception of a June 5 press release from the Venezuelan 
embassy in Brasilia, available on the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs website, which denounces "the media war constructed 
from the headquarters of transnational hegemonic power, at 
whose head is President George W. Bush."  The press release 
includes a reminder that Venezuelan interest in nuclear 
matters long pre-dates the Chavez government, citing a 
nuclear energy accord signed between Venezuela and Brazil in 
1983. 
 
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Nuclear Research Program Long Gone 
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4  (C)  And, despite its vitriol, the press release is 
correct in reminding its readers that Venezuela has a nuclear 
history, if a meager one.  Miguel Octavio, a physicist (Ph.D 
Harvard) who formerly was associated with the Venezuelan 
Scientific Research Institute (IVIC) told econcouns on June 7 
that IVIC, a state body, roughly equivalent, albeit on a much 
smaller scale, to the U.S. National Science Foundation and/or 
the Department of Energy's national laboratories, had 
purchased a small research reactor from General Electric 
during the 1950's and installed it in Los Teques on the 
outskirts of Caracas.  This reactor, which had control 
systems which used vacuum tubes, as opposed to transistors, 
eventually was considered obsolete and difficult to operate, 
and was shut down in the mid-1980's.  (According to Adolfo 
Taylhardat, who served as Venezuelan Ambassador to the 
International Atomic Energy Agency at that time, the IAEA had 
repeatedly expressed its concerns to the GOV before the 
reactor was brought down.  End note.)  No money was made 
available to upgrade or replace the research reactor.  As of 
now, according to Octavio, IVIC's only nuclear program is a 
small gamma ray emission facility for crystallography, 
sterilization of insects for biological research etc. 
 
5.  (C)  Octavio said Venezuela's nuclear scientists, never 
large in number and mainly trained in the 1960's and 1970's, 
have all moved on to other countries, other fields of 
research, or other careers.  (He himself is now a millionaire 
investment banker.)  Any nuclear program would require 
educating a whole new generation of physicists and engineers. 
 Noting that a Ph.D requires five to seven years on top of an 
undergraduate degree, he said that if the GOV started now, it 
would be a decade before it could create any kind of nuclear 
research capability.  Before then, any facilities would have 
to be designed, built, supervised, and operated entirely by 
foreigners. 
 
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Uranium Program Too 
------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  On June 8, Tomasso Tosiani, Director of the Earth 
Sciences Institute of the Central University of Venezuela, 
laid out for econcouns the history of the effort to determine 
whether Venezuela might have its own uranium deposits. 
(Note:  such deposits would be highly useful to any country 
which wanted to develop a nuclear program free from 
international safeguards which require the accounting of 
transfers of nuclear materials.  End note.)  Tosiani said 
that beginning in the mid-1960's the "Autonomous Corporation 
for Electrical Administration and Development" (CADAFE), the 
state-owned electrical generation and transmission 
enterprise, had sponsored basic uranium geology on the 
University's part.  Areas in Guayana, Cojedes, and the Andes 
were identified as having potential.  Further research 
centered on the Andes, where rocks were found with 10-20 
parts per million of uranium, versus a normal background 
amount of 4 parts per million.  However, CADAFE lost 
interest, especially after it was decentralized into 
autonomous regional divisions, and core samples were never 
taken to determine whether or not a viable resource existed. 
 
7.  (C)  Tosiani said Venezuela had the necessary geological 
talent on hand to re-start a uranium search, although he 
added that the best way would be to begin again, using 
satellite mapping technology unavailable earlier.  He agreed 
with Octavio's assessment that Venezuela did not have the 
physicists and engineers for a program to develop nuclear 
power or weapons.  While countries with comparable levels of 
development such as India and Pakistan had done so, first 
they put time into developing their cadres of experts.  Like 
Octavio, he estimated that it would take Venezuela 10 years 
to do this. 
 
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Power Plant that Never Happened 
------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  In his May 22 discourse, Chavez suggested that state 
electric power generator and transmitter CADAFE would be the 
action agency for the nuclear program.  In a June 9 
conversation with econcouns, Fredy Garcia, a senior executive 
at CADAFE, now on loan to the Ministry of Energy and 
Petroleum as an aide to the vice minister in charge of 
electricity, said there had been no instructions from any 
source to follow up on Chavez's comments.  He added that 
CADAFE had no current nuclear expertise.  He went on to say 
that in addition to sponsoring the geological research 
mentioned above, during the early 1980's CADAFE had given 
some consideration of construction of a nuclear power plant, 
and a site at Cabruta, Guarico state, had been purchased. 
However, this idea was subsequently abandoned and nuclear 
power has no place right now in Venezuela's electrical energy 
planning, which is oriented to the construction of gas fired 
plants, as the potential for hydro power becomes exhausted 
with the construction of the last of four dams on the Caroni 
River, due to finish in 2008. 
 
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Military without Nuclear Orientation 
------------------------------------ 
 
9.  (C)  Physicist-turned banker Octavio said that when 
IVIC's nuclear program existed, Venezuela's military had a 
definite, but limited interest in it.  At one point, a 
scientist who had dual Venezuelan-Colombian citizenship had 
been nominated to run the nuclear program.  For "strategic" 
reasons, the Armed Forces vetoed his appointment.  The 
military itself had invested some small effort to develop 
nuclear expertise, but had made nowhere near the same 
commitment that counterparts in Argentina or Brazil had made 
in the 1970's and 80's.  It had sent a few officers abroad to 
study nuclear physics or engineering, and sought to have one 
officer working at IVIC at any given moment.  However, the 
high intellectual quality of the few officers who had 
received nuclear training meant they were in demand for other 
positions, either military or civilian, where some technical 
capability was required.  The officer most renowned in this 
field was at one point reassigned from IVIC to run the 
"National Waterways Institute" which manages dredging on the 
Orinoco River, Lake Maracaibo and other commercially 
important bodies of water.  Octavio doubted that there was 
now anyone on active duty in any of the Venezuelan armed 
services with nuclear scientific or engineering background. 
 
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Price Tag 
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10.  (C)  Octavio suggested that a new small research reactor 
could be purchased for about USD 30 million.  Scholarships to 
send Venezuelans abroad to study nuclear science or 
engineering would cost several millions.  Geologist Tosiani 
suggested that a "basic geochemical map" of Venezuela, which 
would be the logical first step of re-starting a uranium 
search program would cost about USD 250,000, although further 
follow-on would be required.  But while the basics are not 
that expensive, anything beyond that, such as the actual 
construction of a nuclear power generation plant would take 
hundreds of millions of dollars. 
 
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Comment:  For Now, Just Talk 
---------------------------- 
 
11.  (C)  We have yet to see any evidence that the expression 
of interest in nuclear energy is anything more than one of 
Chavez's rhetorical sallies, designed to pique the USG and 
other Chavez opponents.  As of now any nuclear program, even 
a basic research one, would have to be completely turn-key. 
And then, for a decade, foreign scientists and engineers 
would have to be brought in actually to turn the key of any 
facility.  The large sums of money to be spent would have to 
come out of the short-term, politically profitable social 
spending that has been the hallmark of GOV policies under 
Chavez.  Still, the prospect of having some kind of nuclear 
capability doubtless has a visceral appeal for him.  The 
countries that he sees as its potential comrades in a global 
anti-US crusade  --  Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Iran 
--  all have nuclear programs, either peaceful or military. 
Belonging to that club would fit well with Chavez's 
pretensions.  For now, a nuclear program is just talk. 
However, if the Bolivarian Republic starts handing out 
scholarships for graduate work in physics, we will need to 
start taking it more seriously. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA01822 - CONFIDENTIAL