US embassy cable - 05LIMA2674

UNCLAS LIMA 002674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
INL FOR FARRAR, WHA FOR MONSERRATE, ONDCP FOR GETTINGS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PE, PREL, SNAR, UN 
SUBJECT: UNODC ANDEAN COCA SURVEYS FOR 2004 SHOW EXPANSION 
IN PERU 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary: UNODC's 2004 coca survey found a 14 pecent 
increase in coca cultivation over the previous year, 
totalling 50,300 hectares.  Most of this increase occurred in 
the Upper Huallaga and San Gaban areas.  The UNODC's findings 
match Embassy's observations; our current eradication 
schedule is centered on these regions.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  The "UNODC Report on Andean Coca Surveys for 2004," 
presented in Brussels June 15 with DEVIDA Executive President 
Nils Ericsson in attendance, reported a double-digit 
year-on-year increase of coca cultivation in Peru over 2003. 
On the basis of UNODC figures available locally, this 
represents the biggest increase in the past 10 years. 
Compared to 2003, UNODC calculates the total area under coca 
cultivation rose by 14 percent to 50,300 hectares (not 
included in the figures are plantings under a year old).  The 
Peru survey estimates potential cocaine production could jump 
by 23 percent to 190 metric tons.  According to the survey, 
while 10,257 hectares of coca were eradicated in 2004, 
cultivation of coca increased by 6,100 hectares to the 1998 
level, when coca cultivation stood at 51,000 hectares.  The 
UNODP attributes these growth statistics to a near tripling 
of the price of a kilo of coca leaf since its historic low in 
1996, from 1 USD to 2.80 USD in 2004.  Another stated reason 
is the increased yield afforded by technical improvements 
given to the growers by narco-traffickers 
 
3.  (U)  The UNODC Survey concludes that 90 percent of the 
2004 increase in cultivation (5,500 hectares) happened in two 
areas that up till now have had little or no government 
presence - the Upper Huallaga and San Gaban regions. Upper 
Huallaga showed an increase of 24 percent to 16,900 hectares 
(Monzon/Pizana/Yanajanca areas).  San Gaban increased 475 
percent from 470 to 2,700 hectares (measured before CORAH 
eradicated 1,500 hectares in late 2003). The annual yield per 
field is highest in the Apurimac-Ene valleys (VRAE), where 
cocaleros harvested 3,627 kilos of coca leaf per year per 
hectare, followed by the Upper Huallaga at 2,988 kilos per 
hectare and La Convencion-Lares at 1,457 kilos per hectare. 
These three valleys account for 88 percent of the total 
increase in cultivation from 2003-2004.  (Note: The UN yield 
figures are parallel to but slightly higher than the recent 
DEA Breakthrough yield figures.  End Note). 
 
4.  (SBU)  Lima's UNODC Representative Aldo Lale-Diaz told 
NAS Director he wanted to stay clear of possible 
controversies and focus media attention on two main points. 
First, that Peru has to stop seeing the illicit coca-cocaine 
industry mainly as a foreign problem: Peru will bear the 
brunt of the upsurge in local drug production and trafficking 
in terms of addiction, corruption and increased resources to 
finance terrorism. Putting in a plug for Alternative 
Development, Lale noted that total surface has remained 
relatively stable in coca areas that have access to AD. 
 
5.  (U)  The Press reflected these UN positions, but couched 
their reports in terms such as "worrisome," "attack on the 
family of nations" and "regression."  An article in daily "El 
Commercio" points out that coca is now grown in half the 
departments of Peru. 
 
6.  (SBU) Comment:  For Embassy Lima, there are no surprises 
in the 2004 UNODC figures.  We have been aware of the 
increase of coca cultivation in the Upper Huallaga and San 
Gaban areas, both of which we are targetting for 
NAS-supported CORAH eradication in 2005.  CNC has included 
these areas in its measurement plan for next year.  We 
alerted the UN to some of the areas such as Yanajanca and San 
Gaban (the pictures they have of Pizana and Yanajanca are 
from NAS helicopters). 
 
7.  (SBU)  Comment continued:  CORAH has not tried to 
eradicate in the Monzon - 67 percent of the Huallaga, that 
UNODC shows increased by 6 percent (mostly in increased size 
of fields) or the VRAE, which remained stable but is being 
"technified" with fertilizer use and increased density. 
Forced eradication would be too socially conflictive and 
politically unsustainable in the run-up to elections.  For 
now, we will have to continue containing the coca "source 
zones" while we stamp out expansion of coca in new areas. 
Eventually, however, the hard-core Monzon and VRAE will have 
to be tackled to make a dent in Peru's burgeoning coca crop. 
STRUBLE