US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV3749

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 003749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: SHARON WINS NO-CONFIDENCE MOTIONS WITH NO EFFORT; 
ROAD TO DISENGAGEMENT REMAINS CLEAR 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman H. Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d 
). 
 
1.  (C) Heavy media coverage of the Knesset's three failed 
no-confidence motions June 14 -- and their incorrect 
depiction as "defeats" for Prime Minister Sharon -- reflect a 
slow news week, opportunistic efforts by disengagement 
opponents to sow doubts with misleading data, and a prime 
minister sufficiently comfortable in his near-term future 
that he made no effort whatsoever to counter the motions. 
Sharon continues to command majority Knesset support from 
parties within and outside the coalition, and faces no 
parliamentary or other opposition capable of or willing to 
hinder disengagement.  The possibility remains -- as it has 
for more than a year -- that some combination of 
anti-disengagement forces and left-wing parties that oppose 
other aspects of Sharon's Likud-led government could 
successfully force elections sometime between the end of 
disengagement and the regular elections scheduled for 
November 2006. 
 
2.  (C) With less that two-thirds of the Knesset 
participating in the votes, the tallies fell far short of the 
61-vote absolute majority required to bring down the 
government.  Three of the motions -- the two sponsored 
separately by Shinui and Shas on rising societal violence, 
and the one by the far right on problems in the educational 
system -- received 37 votes or fewer out of a possible total 
of 120.  While the media also tried to paint as an 
embarrassment the slightly higher 43-30 tally against 
Sharon's remarks on government corruption, neither the 
Knesset's consideration of the corruption issue nor Sharon's 
remarks carried any importance. 
 
3.  (C) Anti-disengagement MKs followed the votes by calling 
on the Knesset to dissolve itself and head to early 
elections, although they clearly lack the 61-vote absolute 
majority required by law.  The head of the left-wing Yahad 
party, Yossi Beilin, reaffirmed his long-stated intention to 
seek early -- but only post-disengagement -- elections by 
announcing that Yahad will seek a special Knesset session 
after disengagement and during its October recess to consider 
dissolving the Knesset and compellng early elections. 
Foreign Policy Advisor to Vice Premier Shimon Peres Einat 
Wilf told Econ/C that Peres and the Labor Party intend to 
stay in the coalition at least through disengagement and are 
not seeking early elections.  Knesset members from various 
parties commenting on Israeli radio early June 15 were 
uniformly certain that elections would not take place prior 
to completion of disengagement from Gaza and four identified 
West Bank settlements, but declined to predict how long 
Sharon's coalition would endure following disengagement. The 
next major hurdle for the Sharon government, most agree, will 
be the 2006 budget, which must be passed by March 31, 2006 to 
avoid early elections, and which, like this year's budget, 
will be heavily contested. 
 
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