US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2638

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002638 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WASHINGTON PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: "THREE-IN-ONE" ELECTION:  TAIWAN PARES DOWN AND 
GEARS UP FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2490 
 
Classified By:  AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason 1.4 b 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary.  Prompted by voter weariness over Taiwan's 
plethora of elections, the Executive Yuan (EY) announced that 
the December city/county magistrate election will be combined 
with two other local elections.  These elections should 
indicate where Taiwan's fragmented political party system is 
going after the constitutional revisions passed last week, in 
particularly whether the rickety Pan-Blue and Pan-Green 
alliances might coalesce into a predominantly two-party 
political system.  The elections may also be an early 
bellwether of political trends and party organization on the 
road to the combined presidential-legislative election in 
March 2008.  End Summary. 
 
Combating Electoral Ennui 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Rising voter impatience over Taiwan's overloaded 
election calendar -- this is the second year in a row with 
two major island-wide elections -- compounded by the 
historically low 23 percent voter turn-out in the May 14 
National Assembly election, convinced the government to 
reconfigure the series of elections facing Taiwan over the 
next year.  On June 8, the Central Election Commission (CEC) 
formally announced that the city mayor/county magistrate 
elections will be held on December 3, and these will be 
combined into a single island-wide election with county 
council and township elections originally scheduled for 2006. 
 The CEC explained that most voters support this combination 
to simplify voting and reduce costs.  The most significant 
elections will be for the 23 city mayors and county 
magistrates, which many observers see as an early indicator 
of party and leadership trends for the likely combined 
presidential-legislative elections in late 2007/early 2008. 
The December elections will include all 18 counties and five 
municipalities -- Keelung, Hsinchu, Taichung, Chiayi, and 
Tainan.  (Note: Elections for "Special Municipalities" Taipei 
and Kaohsiung will be held separately in late 2006.) 
 
3.  (C) Premier Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) failed in his 
earlier, March 2005, effort to push through this three-in-one 
reform to rationalize and simplify Taiwan's complex, 
multi-layered election system.  The outrage his proposal 
stirred among entrenched politicians, not least within his 
own Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), forced him to 
retrench and stop pushing the idea.  DPP legislators at the 
time told AIT that the new DPP Chairman, Su Tseng-chang -- 
Hsieh's foremost competitor for the 2008 DPP presidential 
nomination -- saw this as an early 2008 campaign thrust by 
Hsieh to undermine him (Su) and push him from the political 
limelight.  The unprecedentedly low voter turn-out on May 14, 
however, DPP Deputy SecGen Yan Wan-chin told AIT, renewed 
momentum for Hsieh's drive to simplify Taiwan's election 
system and encourage higher voter turn-out.  By this time, 
Yan noted, Chairman Su had an election victory (May 14) under 
his belt and was more amenable to the combination idea 
(besides which, President Chen made it clear that he was 
fully on board).  So, the CEC moved immediately following the 
National Assembly to announce the change. 
 
Out of the Starting Block 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) The four major political parties -- DPP, Kuomintang 
(KMT), People First Party (PFP), and Taiwan Solidarity Union 
(TSU), are moving to nominate candidates for the city/county 
magistrate elections (local party organizations will handle 
council and local elections): 
 
-- DPP:  Has announced a slate of 16 candidates -- 10 
uncontested and 6 via the DPP's unique primary system (a 
blend of direct voting and public opinion polls, worth 30 and 
70 percent, respectively).  For the remaining 7 races, the 
DPP is deliberating whether to nominate its own candidates 
for traditionally &pan-blue8 districts (Hsinchu, Miaoli, 
Hualian, Kinmen and Lienchiang Counties and Keelung City) or 
"give" these to its coalition partner, TSU. 
 
-- TSU:  Is going slow on candidate selection pending 
discussions with DPP following the DPP announcement of its 
candidate slate. 
-- KMT:  Is nominating in three tranches, beginning with 
traditional KMT "top-down" candidate selection and ending 
with a new primary system modeled on that of the DPP.  (Note: 
DPP Deputy SecGen Yan exulted to AIT that the KMT "is copying 
our primary system of direct voting and public opinion 
polling." End Note.)  After the KMT announces its final group 
of candidates on June 22, it will begin discussing possible 
candidate coordination with the PFP. 
 
-- PFP:  Has nominated seven candidates; PFP SecGen Chin 
Chin-sheng told AIT the party will probably make more 
nominations in the days ahead, pending the results of his 
ongoing discussions with KMT SecGen Lin Feng-cheng. 
Indicative of the PFP desire for Pan-Blue coordination, 
immediately after announcement of their candidacy, the seven 
PFP candidates called for PFP-KMT election coordination. 
 
A Question of Cooperation 
------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Each party is also jockeying for position with its 
respective coalition partner -- Pan-Green's DPP and TSU, and 
Pan-Blue's KMT and PFP.  While both coalitions fractured 
after the December 2004 legislative elections, the 
constitutional revisions approved by the National Assembly on 
June 7, which will marginalize small political parties (see 
ref A), have inspired renewed TSU and PFP interest in 
cooperating with their coalition partners.  The first such 
public discussions by legislators from these two parties, in 
fact, occurred on May 29, the day before the National 
Assembly opened. 
 
6.  (C) DPP Deputy SecGen Yan told AIT that DPP intends to 
cooperate with the TSU to ensure only one Pan-Green candidate 
runs in each race on December 3, though the TSU threat to run 
Annie Lee for Taipei County Magistrate indicates TSU is less 
than confident about the promised cooperation.  PFP SecGen 
Chin told AIT that he is working with KMT SecGen Lin 
Feng-cheng on possible cooperation on the December 3 
elections, though it is too early to tell whether this will 
work out, he noted, particularly given Lin's insistence that 
discussions begin only after all KMT nominations are 
announced June 22.  Chin noted that the chances of PFP-KMT 
cooperation might increase after the July 17 KMT Chair 
election, referring to candidate Wang Jin-pyng's statement 
that his top priority as Chair will be to coalesce with the 
PFP. 
 
Comment:  Taiwan's Emerging Political Style 
------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The historically low voter turn-out in the May 14 
National Assembly election was decisive in advancing one of 
Premier Hsieh's reform agendas -- reducing the excessive 
number of elections in Taiwan.  The composite "three-in-one" 
December 3 election will be the first indicator of Taiwan's 
new post-constitutional reform political landscape.  Seeing 
the handwriting on the wall of impending marginalization, TSU 
and PFP have become noticeably more eager to reach 
accommodations toward their respective coalition partners. 
KMT and DPP, on the other hand, are playing it coy, 
presumably sensing desperation in their junior partners. 
While the PFP can still pull votes from the KMT, its 
precipitous decline (from 18 percent approval ratings in 2001 
to 6 percent vote on May 14) has reduced its appeal and given 
the KMT greater leverage in the relationship.  Nevertheless, 
both TSU and PFP have enough political "stars" remaining in 
their candidate portfolio to play havoc with their coalition 
partners on December 3.  In Keelung City, for example, 
KMT-PFP non-cooperation on a single mayoral candidate would 
probably repeat the 1997 scenario in which each candidate 
"killed off" the other, leaving a weak DPP candidate with the 
win.  At this still early date, however, KMT and DPP appear 
only willing to give dubious "gifts" to their coalition 
partners -- DPP, for example, wants to "give" TSU the 
Pan-Green slot for Jinmen and Matsu magistracies, both solid 
"Blue" territory.  In response, TSU is threatening to run 
former President Lee Teng-hui's daughter, Annie Lee, for 
magistrate in the December 3 "crown jewel" -- Taipei County. 
 
8.  (C) The December 3 elections may also be an early 
bellwether for Taiwan's 2007/2008 presidential-legislative 
election campaign.  An important factor in the run up to the 
presidential-legislative election will be party leadership. 
DPP is led by its highly organized, charismatic SecGen, Su 
Tseng-chang, who saved his political hide and even burnished 
 
SIPDIS 
his party credentials by pulling victory out of near-certain 
defeat for the DPP on May 14.  On the other hand, KMT chances 
in December will have a major impact on the future political 
strength of whoever is elected its Chairman on July 17. 
PAAL