US embassy cable - 02HARARE1819

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001819 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EX 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAGR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: GLOOMY COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION CONGRESS ADJOURNS 
AS SECTION 8 EVICTION DEADLINE LOOMS 
 
 
Classified By: CHG REWhitehead due to 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  The 59th annual Commercial Farmers, Union 
(CFU) Congress was a gloomy affair that took place under the 
pall of an August 8 deadline for the eviction of the majority 
of CFU members from their farms.  There was unusual division 
within CFU ranks over whether or not to mount court 
challenges to the eviction orders as well as to an expensive 
and compulsory worker retrenchment package, or whether to 
continue the elected  CFU leadership,s thus far fruitless 
attempt at non-confrontational dialogue with the GOZ.  There 
was also a split between farmers who will remain on their 
farms in defiance of the deadline, and those who had chosen 
to vacate.  Acting Agriculture Minister Ignatius Chombo and 
several other ZANU-PF heavyweights attended the closing 
ceremony, which was addressed by Vice President Joseph Msika. 
 His remarks contained little new, and yielded nothing 
promising on the looming Section 8 deadline.  Msika concluded 
with a pointed threat to the Justice for Agriculture (JAG) 
group, which has split from the CFU and favors legal 
confrontation with the GOZ.  In his response, CFU President 
Cloete pitched for dialogue and an extension of the eviction 
deadline, which prompted a scornful response from Chombo and 
other GOZ hardliners in a following press interview.  CFU 
leaders attempted to put a positive spin on Msika,s more 
conciliatory remarks -- a stretch from where we sat -- as 
what may have been the last CFU Congress adjourned.  End 
summary. 
 
----------------- 
A Mournful Affair 
----------------- 
 
2. (SBU)  Econoff attended preliminary open sessions of the 
CFU Congress, and the Charge participated in the closing 
ceremony.  It was a gloomy affair overall, given that the 
first tranche of 1,800 of the CFU,s remaining 3,000 plus 
members were facing a midnight August 8 deadline to vacate 
their farms, totaling some 2,500 properties, or face fines 
and possible imprisonment.  The strain of the deadline 
compounded by three years of violence and stress had clearly 
taken their toll on the CFU.  In closed sessions, there were 
reportedly deep internal fissures in what has traditionally 
been a very cohesive group.  The sessions featured heated 
exchanges over whether or not the CFU should challenge 
exorbitant GOZ-mandated retrenchment packages for their farms 
workers  in court, or whether the increasingly cash-strapped 
farmers should pay the severance, as mandated by law, before 
leaving their properties.  The CFU took no formal decision on 
whether members should leave their farms before the eviction 
deadline, largely because there was a lack of consensus on 
this point.  Some delegates stated that they intended to defy 
the deadline, while others said that they would vacate 
temporarily and see what transpired. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Msika Calls for Unity, Then Rattles the Saber 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU)  A surprisingly top-heavy ZANU-PF delegation 
composed of VP Msika (acting President in Mugabe,s absence); 
 Minister of Local Government, Works, and Housing (and acting 
Agriculture Minister) Ignatius Chombo; hard-line Mashonaland 
West Chanetsa, and Minister of State Olivia Muchena attended 
the closing ceremony.  Following an oleaginous introduction 
by Chombo and a fulsome welcome by CFU President Colin 
Cloete, Msika proceeded to review GOZ policy over the past 
year, including the Section 5 and 8 seizure mechanism and the 
mandated limitations on farm sizes.  He stressed that the 
fast track land reform program would move forward to 
completion but that it would respect its own iternal 
regulations.  He made no specific mention of any grace period 
for the August 8 deadline but noted that the GOZ has delisted 
689 farms comprising a total of 1.69 million hectares 
 
4. (SBU) Msika expressed the GOZ,s willingness to continue 
dealing with the Zimbabwean Joint Resettlement Initiative 
(ZJRI), a CFU-backed attempt to identify and donate 
commercial farmland for resettlement, complete with a 
financial package to assist the resettled farmers start up. 
However, he criticized the slowness of the effort and the 
limited amount of land offered up and accused the CFU of 
resisting land reform from the outset.  Msika added that he 
hoped that within the next year the "white" CFU and the 
"indigenous" Zimbabwean Farmers' Union would be blended into 
a single organization.  He delivered a blunt warning to the 
"small clique amongst you" ) clearly the dissident JAG -- 
who favored confrontation with government over dialogue.  He 
stressed that they would face "the full wrath of the law" and 
that the government would not be deterred from action by 
external influence. 
 
5. (SBU) On a more conciliatory note, Msika declared that he 
was not and had never been a racist, that he deplored racism, 
and that his reference to "our people" extended across the 
color line to all Zimbabweans.  He further insisted that 
there was room and space for all who wished to stay and 
encouraged CFU members who wished to farm to complete and 
submit the required forms expeditiously, or even to contact 
his office.  He announced that no one would be rendered 
homeless by the land reform process. 
 
------------ 
The Response 
------------ 
 
6. (SBU) CFU President Cloete responded by pointing out that 
the CFU had always opted for dialogue with the GOZ, which 
until recently had been refused.  He noted that the GOZ had 
offered no mechanism through which lands identified by the 
ZJRI could be transferred.  He bemoaned the chaos and 
warlordism associated with the fast track program, and 
lamented the breakdown of law and order that had translated 
into violence against, and even the murder of, many farmers. 
Cloete rejected the confrontational approach of the JAG and 
said that the CFU stood ready to work with the Government. 
He urged the Government to re-examine the Section 8 deadline 
before it came into effect. 
 
7. (SBU) A representative of the commercial farmers  of 
Namibia delivered a pledge of solidarity for the CFU and 
requested  concrete proposals on how their Namibian 
counterparts could be of assistance.  A Mr. Roth representing 
Agric SA, a South African counterpart group, subsequently 
took the floor and in an unexpected turn of events proceeded 
to lambaste the GOZ for "outrageous economic policies that 
were ruining Zimbabwe and harming the region."  He continued 
in the same vein, with the CFU leaders at the head table 
squirming and the ZANU-PF heavyweights in the front row 
increasingly outraged as Roth blasted the "wimpy" South 
African Government for its lack of response and castigated 
"other countries represented here" for sitting on their 
hands. 
 
----------- 
The Fallout 
----------- 
 
8. (C)  Charge spoke with CFU Vice Presidents Douglas 
Taylor-Freeme and William Hughes following the ceremony. 
Taylor-Freeme, who has been on and off his farm in the 
volatile Chinhoyi region for several months, confirmed that 
he would pass the weekend at Lake Kariba and take stock of 
what follows.  Hughes said that he would return to his farm 
an hour outside of Harare and take his chances.  He explained 
that the farm was valued at Zimbabwe dollar 1.4 billion (USD 
2 million at the parallel rate) and that he and his family 
had no holdings of any kind outside of Zimbabwe.  He had no 
choice but to stick it out, although he hoped that if he were 
forcibly expelled, it would be by police arrest and not mob 
action.  Taylor-Freeme estimated that 1,200-1,400 of the 
1,800 affected were still on their farms, but he did not have 
accurate information on how many would stay put in spite of 
the deadline.  Both he and Hughes believed that violent 
episodes were unlikely, but could only speculate on hotspots 
or the potential magnitude of the problem.  The outcome would 
determine how other CFU members remaining on their farms 
would  react as their own Section 8 deadlines fell due. 
 
9. (C)  Hughes was surprisingly upbeat on Msika,s remarks, 
focusing on the "room for all" and positive ZJRI rhetoric. 
He admitted that the "no one left homeless" remark was 
mystifying, in that a large number of farmers who had been 
driven off their farms before the Section 8 deadline are for 
all practical purposes already homeless.  Hughes said that 
many others are either broke or deeply in debt, their plight 
further aggravated by the GOZ-mandated retrenchment packages. 
 He scoffed at Msika,s mention of 689 Setion 8 delistings, 
noting that this had been handled strictly along color lines 
and that virtually all beneficiaries have been indigenous 
Zimbabwean farmers.  He said that 98 percent of 
non-indigenous farms have been listed and offered the view 
that the remaining two percent had been temporarily spared by 
administrative oversights. 
 
10. (C) The ZANU-PF contingent marched out in formation 
immediately after the closing session, and their take can 
only be judged from the government press, which  accurately 
reflected Msika,s remarks.   It also quoted Chombo as 
labeling the Congress as "lily white" and "racist" with "raw 
attitudes" that "refuse to share land."  Minister of State 
Olivia Muchena echoed him, accusing the CFU members of 
"racist tactics" and predicting that "what is happening in 
Zimbabwe is also going to take place to white racist farmers 
in South Africa." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
11. (C)  The CFU appeared dispirited, unusually disorganized, 
and increasingly a spent force.  Neither Taylor-Freeme nor 
Hughes could provide precise figures on how many CFU members 
remain on the farms or how many have already emigrated, a 
startling admission from an organizaton that a year ago was 
probably the best organized and informed lobby in Zimbabwe. 
Hughes, who is leaving his Vice Presidential slot, said that 
the CFU executive is downsizing and that he will not be 
replaced.  The CFU has been unable to find a qualified 
replacement for its public relations director, who defected 
to JAG, and has no accurate figures on how many of its 
members have actually followed her lead.  Cloete made it 
clear, however, that despite these challenges the CFU 
leadership remains committed to dealing non-confrontatially 
with the GOZ.  As Hughes pointed out, Mugabe himself has 
already stated that the GOZ will not respect court decisions 
that it does not agree with, and the regime has at its 
disposal all the forces required to counter a strategy of 
confrontation. 
 
12. (C) Hughes' attempt at a positive take on Msika,s 
remarks struck us as grasping at straws.  Msika said nothing 
new in the speech, and his rhetoric about space for all, 
unity, and a home for everyone has not been borne out by 
developments on the ground.  Barring a prompt and radical GOZ 
policy change over the next few days,  highly unlikely in 
Mugabe,s absence, we take Msika,s statements as words for 
the wind.  The ZANU-PF instinct for crushing any opposition 
to its monopoly on power, so ably displayed in its dealings 
with the MDC, would appear to extend to the CFU as well.  The 
question that was never answered at the glum 59th CFU 
Congress was whether or not this would be its last. End 
Comment. 
WHITEHEAD