US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA5671

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 005671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, CO, 2006 Elections 
SUBJECT: LIBERALS SELECT GAVIRIA AS PARTY CHIEF; 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TBD 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 5509 
     B. BOGOTA 4571 
     C. BOGOTA 3842 
 
Classified By: Charge Milton K. Drucker, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  On June 11, the Liberal Party (PLC) 
national convention selected former President and OAS SyG 
Cesar Gaviria as its national party head.  Gaviria denounced 
President Uribe for abandoning and attacking the PLC, 
wrongheaded policies (most notably an alleged failure to 
control the peace process with paramilitaries), and 
incompetence (including a shot at the President's famous work 
ethic).  Twice-unsuccessful Presidential candidate Horacio 
Serpa lost his bid for a group party leadership, but saw his 
social democratic platform ratified.  The date and method of 
candidate selection for next May's presidential election 
remain open.  Serpa is the front-runner for the PLC 
nomination at this point.  Gaviria and Serpa are quietly 
talking to the two leftist parties -- Polo Democratico and 
Alternativa Democratica -- regarding a potential 
left/center-left alliance against Uribe.  End Summary. 
 
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Gaviria Upstages Serpa with Attack on Uribe 
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2.  (C) Cesar Gaviria united delegates at the June 10-11 PLC 
national convention and upstaged two-time Presidential 
candidate and rival Horacio Serpa with a harsh attack on 
President Uribe.  He criticized Uribe (a former prominent 
Liberal Party politician who abandoned the party to run for 
President) as a "messianic" political boss who had attacked 
the PLC as an institution and abandoned its principles. 
Gaviria accused Uribe of short-sightedness, micro-management 
at the expense of a wider vision, and for allowing the 
paramilitaries to have the upper hand in the peace process. 
His call for internal party unity and stepped-up attacks on 
Uribe closed ranks.  In a brief conversation with Emboff on 
June 11, Gaviria continued his verbal assault on Uribe and 
questioned the USG's unwavering commitment to Uribe on all 
fronts, including the Justice and Peace legislation that 
Gaviria said clearly caved to the paramilitaries. 
 
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But Serpa Gets his Social-Democratic Platform 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Not to be left behind, Serpa (Uribe's former 
Ambassador to the OAS) labeled Uribe as "neo-fascist."  Serpa 
had earlier applauded, seemingly without irony, Gaviria's 
apparent change from neo-liberalism to social democracy.  The 
PLC formally ratified Serpa's social democratic platform, 
which opposed neo-liberalism and favored: equitable 
distribution of income; protection of Colombian industry and 
agriculture; progressive taxation; defense of labor unions, 
the environment, and minorities; access for the poor to 
health care and education; reduction of unemployment; and a 
politically negotiated solution to Colombia's armed conflict. 
 Not part of the platform, but much in evidence, was a call 
for a humanitarian exchange with the FARC; banners with 
pictures of kidnapped PLC members were prominently posted at 
the convention. 
 
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Penalosa Conserves his Options 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) Former Bogota mayor Enrique Penalosa opted out of 
the otherwise unanimous bashing of Uribe.  Twenty-six percent 
of Liberals interviewed on June 8 favored Serpa as 
presidential candidate, with 18 percent for Penalosa.  With 
31 percent undecided, Penalosa (a "progressive-conservative" 
technocrat) is still a player.  Penalosa thus left the door 
open for Uribe's support to run for President as a Liberal 
(if he can beat Serpa for the party's nomination) or as an 
independent, should the Constitutional Court rule out 
reelection. 
 
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Candidate Selection: How, When, and Who? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Serpa urged early (i.e. by October) selection of a 
Presidential candidate, though he vacillated regarding the 
method.  The convention did not set a date for the primary, 
which could take place as late as March 2006.  Some pundits 
reckon that Serpa hopes first to win the nomination -- though 
he has yet to identify himself as a candidate -- and second 
to use it to wrest control of the party from Gaviria. 
Gaviria has denied any interest in running for the 
nomination, stating that the PLC presidency is a two-year, 
full-time job.  In a conversation with Emboff on June 13, 
Polo Democratico (PDI) Party head Samuel Moreno said his 
party is quietly talking to Gaviria and Serpa regarding a 
potential left/center-left alliance between the PDI, the PLC, 
and Alternativa Democratica (AD). 
 
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Comment 
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6.  (C) Gaviria, the most popular of the living former 
presidents, seems to be seeking to reduce Uribe's enviable 
public approval ratings, which stand at 70 percent. 
Gaviria's tactics (shrill personal attacks), however, will 
lead to fierce Uribe counter-attacks.  At present, Uribe 
still is the clear front-runner for 2006, with or without a 
major opposition alliance arrayed against him.  While 
important political actors appear to desire such an alliance, 
large egos, the tradition of the Liberal Party, ambitions of 
the Polo Democratico, and parochial interests may stand in 
the way. 
DRUCKER