US embassy cable - 05CAIRO4519

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 004519 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Democracy Reform 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S POLITICAL REFORM AGENDA: MORE IN THE 
PIPELINE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 4005 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. CAIRO 3911 
     C. CAIRO 3617 
     D. CAIRO 3089 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The amendment of Article 76 of Egypt's constitution, 
ratified by public referendum on May 25 (refs A and B), was 
the centerpiece of the GOE's 2005 political reform package, 
but not the only item on the agenda.  Parliament has been 
debating this week a new law that will govern Egypt's first 
presidential elections, and is expected to pass a final 
version in the coming days.  Also waiting on parliament's 
docket are revisions to the "political rights" law, with 
important ramifications for this fall's legislative 
elections.  Revisions to the law governing political parties, 
and the laws regulating the People's Assembly and the Shura 
Council are also on the agenda.  One provision in the revised 
Political Parties Law, could, if the current language holds, 
potentially collide with international donors' plans to offer 
technical assistance to political parties.  It is not clear 
whether a new judiciary bill, demanded by restive Egyptian 
judges (ref D), or revisions to the penal code as it applies 
to journalists, proposed by President Mubarak in 2004, will 
be debated during the current session.  The pending drafts we 
have examined could still change substantially before they 
are finalized.  In any case, the bills are generally more 
cautious than revolutionary, and whether the proposed changes 
will actually constitute progress toward political reform 
will depend on how they are implemented.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
Presidential Elections Law 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Following parliament's passage in early May of an 
amendment to Article 76 of the Egyptian Constitution, 
subsequently ratified in the May 25 referendum (refs A and 
B), parliament has been working on a requisite law to govern 
the first presidential election in Egypt's history.  Debate 
on the new law in a plenary session of the Shura Council was 
televised on the GOE's Nile News channel on June 13.  Once 
approved by the Shura Council, the bill will move to the 
People's Assembly for further debate and final passage. 
 
3. (SBU) Among the signficiant features of the bill are that 
it: 
 
--  Specifies a ten-member electoral commission to supervise 
the presidential election - composed of three senior judicial 
officials - (the Heads of the Supreme Constitutional Court, 
the Court of Cassation, and the Supreme Court of Appeals, 
respectively); and five "nonpartisan" members of the public, 
to be nominated by the parliament, and representatives of the 
ministries of Interior and Justice; 
 
-- Imposes campaign spending limits (and partial public 
finance of campaigns); 
 
and 
 
-- Mandates equal access to state media (although it also 
states that if one of the candidates is an incumbent 
president, coverage of the performance of his official duties 
will not be counted as campaign coverage); 
 
5. (SBU) Opposition members of parliament and opposition 
party newspapers have been vocal in their criticisms of the 
bill.  They complain that the final composition of the 
electoral commission is to be defined in a Presidential 
Decree, thus giving the executive a de facto veto over any 
commission member.  They have argued that the media access 
rules will prove meaningless and unenforceable. 
 
6. (C) Perhaps most significantly, critics have complained 
that the law is silent on the question of a presidential 
candidate's military service.  The issue of military service 
is widely seen as a stealth weapon against Presidential son 
and potential successor Gamal Mubarak, who may or may not 
have performed his military service "on paper" (as many 
well-connected Egyptian sons have done) but clearly can not 
point to a credible military career as one of his patriotic 
credentials. 
 
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Political Rights 
---------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Following the Presidential Elections Law, the next 
bill parliament is expected to take up, probably during the 
week of June 20, is a draft revising various provisions to 
law 73/1956 - the "Political Rights" law.  The new bill calls 
for the establishment of an election commission charged with 
overseeing elections for the national legislature.  The 
current draft of the bill calls for a ten-member commission 
to be composed of three sitting judges and five non-partisan 
members to be named by the Shura Council, of whom two should 
be retired judges, and representatives of the Ministries of 
Justice and Interior.  The bill also specifies the mandate of 
the commission, which includes setting the rules for 
establishing and updating voter lists, setting rules for 
regulating campaigns, and rules for processing and announcing 
election results.  The bill also stiffens penalties for those 
convicted of election-related crimes and penalties for those 
who cast multiple votes.  To combat multiple voting, the bill 
calls for the application of indelible ink to voters' 
fingers. 
 
8. (SBU) Critics of the bill have complained that, like the 
presidential elections bill, the draft leaves a de facto veto 
of the composition of the electoral commission in the hands 
of the executive.  Opposition critics also complain that 
while the commission "sets the rules" for the regulation of 
elections, the actual conduct of key electoral functions, 
like the maintenance of voter lists, remains in the hands of 
the Ministry of Interior. 
 
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Political Parties 
----------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Parliament will also be taking up revisions to Law 
40/1977, which regulates political parties.  The bill 
currently in circulation increases the number of members 
required to form a new party from 50 to 1000 (a requirement 
clearly intended to discourage the proliferation of "paper 
parties") and expunges outdated references to "the principles 
of the 1952 revolution" and the "protection of socialist 
achievements."  The bill also expands the composition of the 
Shura Council's Political Parties Committee, which reviews 
and approves or rejects license applications by prospective 
new parties - by adding six members of the public, three of 
whom should be retired members of the judiciary. 
 
10. (SBU) Another significant feature of the bill is a change 
in procedure for reviewing prospective new parties' license 
applications:  Prospective new parties would be able to 
consider their submitted applications approved if, after 90 
days, they are not officially rejected. 
 
11. (C) The issue of "foreign funding," a perennial hot topic 
in Egyptian politics, is also addressed in the Political 
Parties bill, with an explicit prohibition of parties' 
acceptance of "any donation, privilege or benefit from any 
foreigner" (including Egyptian dual nationals) "...or any 
foreign body or international body."  (Comment: This 
provision, if it holds in the final draft, could collide with 
the intent of the USG and other international donors to take 
up projected activities such as non-partisan political party 
strengthening.  End comment.) 
 
12. (SBU) The bill offers GOE funding of LE 100,000 (about 
USD 17,000) to each party, plus LE 5000 (about USD 860) for 
each parliamentary seat won by a party, to a maximum of LE 
500,000 (about USD 82,000) for each party. 
 
13. (SBU) Critics in the opposition complain that the 
executive will continue to have too much influence over the 
Political Parties Committee, and also complain that the bill 
does not change the article in the law stipulating that no 
party can be licensed unless it offers a "unique and distinct 
program that enriches political life."  This provision, that 
new parties' programs must significantly differ from those of 
existing parties, is the most commonly cited cause for 
rejection of a license application. 
 
-------------------------- 
Parliamentary Affairs Laws 
-------------------------- 
 
14. (SBU) Also on the docket for this parliamentary session 
are laws (one each for the People's Assembly and the Shura 
Council) that govern the conduct of members of parliament and 
qualifications required to hold a seat.  On qualifications, 
the draft maintains the requirement (of those born before 
1970) that they be able to read and write, but imposes an 
additional requirement of an elementary education certificate 
for those born after.  According to the new draft, candidates 
may not use places of worship, schools, or universities as 
campaign venues.  The law also explicitly forbids candidates 
from accepting funds from abroad, including funds from 
Egyptians living abroad.  The bill also increases the bonus 
provided to members of parliament and an additional bonus for 
the speakers of the People's Assembly and the Shura Council. 
 
15. (SBU) Critics charge that the low standard of "literacy" 
imposed on members is intended to protect members from rural 
areas who contribute little to the legislative process but 
who can be counted upon for their slavish loyalty to the 
regime.  Critics have also attacked the provision in the bill 
in which members award themselves a pay raise, given the 
dubious performance (they claim) of many parliamentarians, 
particularly those with a penchant for absenteeism. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Judicial, Press Bills May or May Not Appear 
------------------------------------------- 
 
16. (SBU) Parliament watchers remain uncertain whether 
revisions to laws governing the judiciary and proposed 
revisions to the penal code as it applies to the press, will 
be presented during the current legislative session.  As 
reported ref D, thousands of Egyptian judges grew restive 
this spring, demanding various changes to the existing law 
that they argued would augment their independence, including 
an expansion of their autonomy and authority as electoral 
supervisors.  The judges even threatened to abstain from 
their electoral supervision duties if their demands were not 
met. 
 
17. (C) Justice Minister Mahmoud Aboul Leil appeared by late 
May to have succeeded in at least partially defusing the 
judges' "revolt"  by convincing (or coercing) thousands of 
judges to sign a document affirming their intent to fulfill 
their obligations as electoral supervisors.  Some speculated 
that the Justice Ministry would also move forward with new 
legislation which addressed some of the judges' complaints, 
although as of mid-June there were still no signs that a new 
judicial bill had been drafted or would move forward in the 
current legislative term. 
 
18. (SBU) In early 2004, President Mubarak called for 
revisions to the press law to eliminate jail terms from the 
range of penalties that could be imposed upon journalists 
found guilty of libel.  The President's call was met with a 
warm welcome by many observers, particularly in Egypt's media 
sector, who hailed the move as an important political reform 
step.  The warm feelings had evaporated by mid-2005, however, 
as the GOE had still taken no steps to implement the 
President's directive and journalists continue to be 
sentenced to jail. 
 
19. (C) The GOE's reaction to recent case in which three 
journalists with the liberal daily Al-Masry Al-Youm were 
convicted of libel and sentenced to jail suggests that the 
government is embarrassed by its failure to act.  Al-Masry 
Al-Youm's publisher told us that a senior GOE contact had 
called him shortly after the verdict and urged that the three 
promptly file an appeal.  Once filed, the appeal was promptly 
granted, and the three were never imprisoned.  Parliament 
watchers have continued to await word of a bill that would 
revise the penal code in accordance with Mubarak's 2004 
announcement, but as of mid-June there were no signs such a 
bill would be forthcoming. 
 
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Comment 
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20. (C) As is generally the case with political reform steps 
taken by the GOE, drafters of the pending political bills 
have exercised caution and left significant room for 
maneuver, in either progressive or regressive directions, to 
those who will implement the future laws.  Should GOE 
decision makers so choose, many of the proposed changes could 
have sweeping impact.  For example, the establishment of 
truly independent electoral commissions, if granted adequate 
latitude and authority over the process, could go far toward 
eliminating the fraud and manipulation that has characterized 
previous elections.  On the other hand, should other 
provisions be narrowly interpreted, many of the changes 
proposed could actually be regressive.  The prohibition on 
political parties' acceptance of "any benefit" for any 
foreign entity, for example, could theoretically be invoked 
to block international donors' plans to offer technical 
assistance (on a non-partisan basis) to political parties in 
the context of efforts to promote democratic institution 
building.  In either case, it is too early to draw 
conclusions:  Experience has demonstrated that the bills 
currently in circulation could still undergo many important 
changes before they become law. 
 
Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo 
 
You can also access this site through the 
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. 
GRAY