US embassy cable - 05PARIS4153

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 004153 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015 
TAGS: PREL, FR, EUN 
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED'S PARIS MEETING WITH 
CHIRAC DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR GOURDAULT-MONTAGNE 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires Alex Wolff for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1.  (C) Summary: A Europe turned inward in the wake of the 
rejection of the EU constitution by voters in France and the 
Netherlands would set back U.S.- EU cooperation in meeting 
global challenges, and would be unwelcome, visiting Assistant 
Secretary Daniel Fried told President Chirac's Diplomatic 
 
SIPDIS 
Advisor Maurice Gourdault Montagne in Paris June 7. 
President Bush wants a strong Europe as a partner and has 
worked for two years to overcome our differences over Iraq 
and refocus our energies on a shared agenda -- this is not 
the moment to abandon the progress we've made, Fried 
continued.  Europe's enlargement has helped knit the 
continent together and offered hope to populations long 
denied democratic freedoms and economic prosperity.  It 
cannot now remove the hope of a European future which serves 
as an incentive for positive change in the Western Balkans, 
Turkey, and newly emerging democracies in the former Soviet 
Space, like Ukraine.  Responding, Gourdault-Montagne said 
that France and Europe would remain engaged with the U.S., 
but at the same time, European leaders could not ignore the 
message their publics were sending in voting down the 
constitution.  Europe will have to absorb its most recent, 
10-member enlargement and move more deliberately on future 
enlargements, including those of Bulgaria, Romania and 
Croatia.  Ukraine, Georgia and others to the east will 
benefit from a strengthened association with the EU but not 
membership, for now.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) Assistant Secretary Fried met in Paris June 7 with 
Elysee Diplomatic Advisor Maurice Gourdault-Montagne. 
Participants included: 
 
U.S. 
---- 
 
A/S Fried 
Charge Alex Wolff 
Acting DAS Kathy Allegrone 
A/POL Paul Mailhot (notetaker) 
 
France 
------ 
 
Diplomatic Advisor Gourdault-Montagne 
Elysee Advisor on North American and Middle Eastern Affairs 
Dominique Boche 
 
3.  (C) A/S Fried said he had come to France, Italy and 
Germany to make clear that the U.S. did not welcome the 
rejection of the European constitution by French and Dutch 
voters.  We hoped that it would not cause Europe to enter "a 
long period of introspection," or lose the will to pursue our 
common agenda around the world.  The Administration, and 
particularly Secretary Rice, hoped that a confident Europe 
would continue to offer the prospect of a European future to 
the countries of the Western Balkans, the states bordering 
the EU to the east, and to Turkey.  That possibility acted as 
a powerful incentive for continuing democratic and economic 
reform in those countries -- a process that the U.S. and the 
EU want to continue.  A long pause while Europe looked inward 
could shake confidence in these countries in the course they 
have chosen.  This would certainly be a topic of discussion 
at the U.S.- EU summit scheduled for June 21-22. 
 
4.  (C) Recalling that he had been in Washington the previous 
week and talked with NSA Hadley about good U.S.- French 
cooperation on Lebanon, Gourdault-Montagne said this kind of 
cooperation would certainly continue.  France has appreciated 
the U.S. public and private reaction to the French and Dutch 
votes.  Washington's persistent refusal to be drawn into 
public speculation about the future of Europe in the wake of 
the referendum votes has helped European leaders manage the 
aftermath.  Europe has experienced set-backs before during 
its 50-year history of step-by-step integration, 
Gourdault-Montagne went on.  It will continue to function on 
the basis of the existing treaties.  The constitution, in the 
view of the GOF, represented an improvement.  But it was 
rejected by the people, and this cannot be ignored or 
regretted.  The reasons for the rejection were numerous in 
France, and many had nothing to do with the specific 
provisions of the constitution.  "People answered other 
questions," Gourdault-Montagne said, but their essential 
message seemed to be one of unease over their current 
economic situation, and particularly over persistent high 
unemployment in France (currently at about 10.2 percent). 
They feared that their jobs were endangered by competition 
from low-labor-cost producing nations and that their social 
welfare protections were under attack from a Brussels 
bureaucracy they did not trust.  The vote, in that sense, was 
a "no to existing systems," Gourdault-Montagne said. 
 
5.  (C) Immigration was also a concern, but to a far lesser 
extent in France than in the Netherlands, Gourdault-Montagne 
went on.  The prospect of Turkey's eventual entry into the EU 
and the consequent influx of Turkish residents into 
established EU countries certainly influenced voters in the 
Netherlands and was an important issue in France very early 
in the referendum campaign.  Chirac essentially neutralized 
the potential negative vote over Turkey by passing 
legislation making it compulsory that any future enlargement 
(after Romania and Bulgaria) be approved by referendum in 
France.  Nevertheless, the mounting evidence that France's 
integration of its mostly North African Muslim population is 
not working also makes immigration a focus of popular concern 
in France. 
 
6.  (C) The French and Dutch votes are forcing the EU to 
consider whether the ratification process should continue, 
Gourdault-Montagne said.  The treaty stipulates that if by 
the end of the ratification process on November 1, 2006 one 
or more states have not accepted the treaty, the European 
Council will consider next steps.  Ten countries have already 
ratified the treaty; "we cannot tell them that their votes 
don't count," Gourdault-Montagne said.  So, despite pressure 
for a "suspension" or abandonment of the ratification 
process, France believes it is important to go on, 
Gourdault-Montagne concluded.  But the courses now open to 
the EU are few.  Might a new French government decide to put 
the same question to French voters again -- in a rerun of the 
referendum as was done in Denmark and Ireland following their 
rejection of earlier treaties?  This cannot be ruled out, 
Gourdault-Montagne said, but the chances of any French 
government embarking on that path are slim.  Alternatively, 
the EU could decide to renegotiate the treaty, but here the 
possibility of agreement among the 25 is almost nonexistent. 
A more likely course might be to attempt to reach agreement 
at 25 on implementing elements of the constitution that are, 
in effect, extensions of provisions already in existing 
treaties.  These questions will be at the top of the agenda 
for the concluding summit of the Luxembourg presidency on 
June 16-17. 
 
7.  (C) The votes, with their clear indication of uneasiness 
over the continued expansion of the EU, will certainly cause 
the EU to move more deliberately on future enlargements, 
Gourdault-Montagne said.  In a climate in which voters 
worried about the flight of jobs to new member states in 
Central and Eastern Europe and the possible influx of 
low-paid workers from the east (the proverbial "Polish 
plumber"), French voters resented not having been directly 
consulted on the most recent, 10-member enlargement. 
Instead, agreement to that historic enlargement occurred 
after just two days of debate in the National Assembly "and 
no one even noticed," Gourdault-Montagne said.  Bulgaria and 
Romania are well along in the process, but EU members are now 
likely to insist on full compliance with the acquis as a 
condition for membership.  This may impact Romania, which has 
been slow to amend its criminal justice code, and Bulgaria, 
because no one wants to "decouple" the two.  France, Germany 
and Austria were pushing hardest for progress on Croatia's 
candidacy and are not likely to change this basic 
orientation, believing that prospective membership is 
fostering political change in Croatia.  But the process for 
Croatia and other Western Balkans countries is likely to slow 
down. 
 
8.  (C) Expansion to other states on the eastern borders of 
the EU poses problems, particularly in the case of Ukraine, 
"a huge country," Gourdault-Montagne said.  There are 
essentially no clearly defined European borders and EU 
enlargement could theoretically "go on forever" as long as 
these states are solidifying their democracies.  But there is 
no public support for such a limitless enlargement policy and 
thus distinctions will have to be made.  For Ukraine, this 
could mean close association with the EU in a "reinforced 
neighborhood," but not membership, Gourdault-Montagne said. 
A/S Fried suggested that it would be unwise to succumb to the 
temptation of drawing permanent borders around the EU's 
current members and noted that no one is talking about 
Ukraine or others in the neighborhood coming into the EU 
tomorrow.  Gourdault-Montagne conceded the point, saying that 
France's conception of Europe is "not closed."  However, 
there is a clear need to pause and absorb the most recent 
enlargement, he added.  "Let us swallow and digest," he said. 
 "If not, we will explode." 
 
9.  (C) Another temptation to avoid, A/S Fried went on, is to 
externalize the EU's problems by casting the U.S. as an 
adversary and precipitating conflict with us.  This would 
undo all of the patient work of the last two years to repair 
the damage caused by our disagreement over Iraq policy.  We 
are now cooperating in exemplary fashion in many parts of the 
world to our mutual benefit and we have good, workable 
arrangements for EU-NATO cooperation.  Gourdault-Montagne 
said he saw no desire among EU leaders to put the U.S.- EU 
relationship in jeopardy.  By the same token, however, it 
would not be constructive to push for Ukrainian or Georgian 
membership in the EU.  France understands and can deal with 
the U.S. position on Turkey, but the EU needs to be free to 
make its own decisions about its relations with Ukraine, 
Georgia and others, just as the U.S. determines the nature of 
its relations with Mexico. 
 
10.  (C) As for NATO-EU cooperation, Gourdault-Montagne 
continued, the EU has been active in Darfur for some 18 
months and welcomes NATO involvement as a complement to the 
EU effort, but would object to any indication that NATO 
wanted to take over and give the EU directions.  France 
continues to believe that a "NATO flag" in certain countries, 
like Iraq, would provoke resentment of the local population 
and ultimately be counterproductive.  As concerns Darfur, 
Chadian President Deby has warned that a NATO presence would 
be destabilizing to the entire central African region. 
France believes Deby knows the region and listens to his 
advice, Gourdault-Montagne said.  A/S Fried clarified by 
noting that the African Union has forces on the ground in 
Darfur, not NATO.  NATO is playing a much needed support 
role.  The solution to good EU-NATO cooperation is to allow 
each organization to do what it does best. 
 
11.  (U) A/S Fried cleared this message. 
WOLFF