US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA964

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: KABILA LAUNCHES TRANSITION ASSESSMENT SEMINAR 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece.  Reason 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1.  (U)  President Kabila presided over the ceremonial 
opening June 10 of a Transition  evaluation and assessment 
seminar.  The Ambassador and other chiefs of mission of 
members countries of the International Committee to Accompany 
the Transition (CIAT) were also invited to attend, as were 
selected other senior international community representatives 
and senior GDRC executive and legislative branch officials. 
The opening was covered by the local press, although the 
substantive discussions will be closed.  The seminar itself 
will involve government ministers and other senior officials. 
 
2. (C) The idea of a general Transition assessment was 
included in President Kabila,s May 16 national speech, which 
was generally viewed as the President,s endorsement and 
kick-off to official parliamentary debate over a needed 
extension to the DRC,s two-year old transition.  The purpose 
of the exercise is not entirely clear.  One plausible idea is 
that Kabila is seeking to use the seminar as a means to 
oblige all of the various parties participating in the 
Transitional Government to express their criticisms and 
suggestions in a coherent manner, rather than express views 
separately in public, and politically-driven, remarks that 
could contribute to further political divisiveness during a 
politically-tense period.  In other words, Kabila is using 
the seminar to fence in his transition government partners. 
 
3. (C) During a wide-ranging discussion June 11 in a private 
meeting with the Ambassador (septel), Vice President Ruberwa 
commented that Kabila also seems to be seeking to use the 
seminar to lay the groundwork for what Ruberwa characterized 
as significant changes in the government.  Potentially, he 
said, this might include an effort by Kabila to replace Vice 
President Yerodia, as well as several cabinet ministers. 
Ruberwa commented that Kabila,s apparent desire for all of 
the parties participating in the government to undertake 
similar shake-ups posed a problem for his party, RCD-Goma. 
Having completed several cabinet changes of RCD-Goma 
ministers a few months ago, and just winding up an apparently 
often-contentious party conference to review whether RCD-Goma 
officials should be maintained in their party functions, 
Ruberwa has no desire to undertake further changes among 
RCD-Goma ministers. 
 
4. (U) The seminar is expected to be completed on Tuesday, 
June 14 or Wednesday, June 15.  Whatever changes are expected 
in government operations or personnel would presumably be 
clear soon thereafter. 
 
5. (C) Comment:  Making changes among key PPRD ministers or 
other officials within a context of a broader government-wide 
shakeup would simplify things a bit politically for Kabila. 
Such an approach would be consistent with Kabila,s mode of 
operating and sounds entirely plausible.  Presumably, in 
addition to laying the groundwork for personnel changes, and 
keeping his transition partners somewhat coordinated, Kabila 
views the seminar as a part of the overall government effort 
to address popular concerns in advance of the sensitive June 
30 anniversary date.  In that regard, we are more skeptical 
that the seminar will achieve significant results.  As far as 
specifics, there are widespread rumors that the Minister of 
Finance is particularly vulnerable. Kinshasa, however, is 
always full of often-specific rumors, and most are untrue. 
If significant personnel changes are coming, they will 
probably be sooner rather than later, i.e. before June 30. 
End comment. 
MEECE