US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI4447

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: ADVANI WITHDRAWS RESIGNATION AND RETURNS TO THE 
FOLD 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 4315 
     B. NEW DELHI 4270 
     C. NEW DELHI 4232 
 
Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: On June 10, LK Advani withdrew his 
resignation as BJP party President in response to unrelenting 
pressure from the party leadership.  He accepted a compromise 
formula which credits him for a successful trip to Pakistan, 
while criticizing Pakistan's founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah. 
Advani's return demonstrated the power of the RSS and its 
Hindu nationalist allies and their continued dominance over 
the BJP, and will likely increase the party's political 
decline.  End Summary. 
 
Back to the Fold 
---------------- 
 
2.  (U) The "crisis" in the BJP was resolved on June 10 when 
LK Advani accepted a statement issued by the party leadership 
and withdrew his withdrawal letter (reftels).  The BJP 
statement made the following points: 
 
--Advani's visit to Pakistan "brought the people of India and 
Pakistan closer together, helped remove a mountain of 
misunderstanding between them and has taken the momentum of 
better relations to a new level. 
 
--Advani did not "describe (Pakistan's founder) Muhammad Ali 
Jinnah as secular, "but "reminded the people of Pakistan of 
its founder's address to the country's constituent Assembly 
in which he had urged full freedom of faith for all its 
citizens and no discrimination between its citizens of 
grounds of religion." 
 
--"The BJP reiterates that whatever may have been Jinnah's 
vision of Pakistan, the state he founded is theocratic and 
non-secular." 
 
--There can be no revisiting the reality that Jinnah led a 
communal agitation to achieve his goal of Pakistan, which 
devoured thousands of innocent people in its wake and 
dispossessed millions from their homes and livelihoods." 
 
--"The very idea of Hindus and Muslims being two separate 
nations is repugnant to the BJP.  It has always condemned the 
division of India on communal lines and continues to 
steadfastly reject the two-nation theory championed by 
Jinnah." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
3.  (U) The BJP statement contradicts the historical record, 
as the "two nation theory" first originated with the Hindutva 
(Hindu nationalism) camp rather than Jinnah.  In 1923, BJP 
hero and progenitor of Hindutva Vinayak Damodar Savarkar 
wrote "India cannot be assumed today to be a Unitarian and 
homogeneous nation, but on the contrary there are two nations 
in the main: the Hindus and the Moslems in India."  In 1943 
he stated that "I have no quarrel with Mr. Jinnah's 
two-nation theory: We Hindus are a nation by ourselves and it 
is a historical fact that Hindus and Muslims are two nations." 
 
4.  (C) 
 
--The controversy surrounding Advani's resignation has 
reinforced the crisis within the BJP, which has steadily 
suffered at the polls since its fell from power in May 2004. 
 
--Although the BJP leadership patched together a face-saving 
"solution" to the "crisis," the deep divisions within the BJP 
and between the BJP and the NDA remain. 
 
--The poll in Bihar will is expected after the monsoons in 
November, 2005 will be a crucial contest for the BJP.  These 
developments make an NDA victory in Bihar increasingly 
unlikely. 
 
--The crisis underlined that there is no second generation 
BJP leader who can currently bridge the two BJP camps like 
Advani. 
 
--The behavior of the second tier of the BJP leadership, such 
as Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi, which failed to 
come to his aid when he came under attack from the Sangh 
Parivar (family of Hindu organizations) reportedly shocked 
Advani, as he had selected them personally. 
 
--Advani had most likely determined that Hindutva had 
outlived his usefulness and hoped to steer the BJP towards a 
more moderate course, in hopes of reversing the party's 
electoral decline. 
 
--His acceptance of the BJP statement with its negative 
portrayal of Jinnah and his role in history is a public 
withdrawal from his earlier stance. 
--The Hindu nationalist RSS and its Sangh Parivar allies have 
scored a major political victory by intimidating Advani and 
the second tier BJP leadership. 
 
--This is a major coup for Congress and the UPA, which can 
now draw a clear political line between its "secular" and 
progressive outlook and the "communalism" of the BJP. 
 
--These developments could lead to a further decline in the 
NDA, whose numbers have fallen from 22 parties in 1998 to 
only 10 today.  More parties could depart in the months 
ahead, spurring efforts to create a "third front" to oppose 
the UPA and occupy the political vacuum resulting from the 
decline of the BJP. 
BLAKE