US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1044

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001044 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR BELL 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: MONKS, SOME MUSLIMS OPPOSE JOINT 
MECHANISM; CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS PERSIST 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 1039 
     B. COLOMBO 1033 
     C. USDAO COLOMBO IIR 6 816 0141 05 (NOTAL) 
     D. COLOMBO 0812 
 
Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) The controversy surrounding the proposed "joint 
mechanism" to coordinate tsunami aid with the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has deepened following unanimous 
public opposition from the chief prelates of all four 
Buddhist chapters.  At a June 10 press conference, Government 
alliance partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) announced it 
would give President Chandrika Kumaratunga until midnight 
June 15 to withdraw support for the mechanism or face a JVP 
pull-out from her government.  The President met with 
pro-Government Muslim MPs on June 9 in a bid for their 
support, but the opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress is 
withholding its endorsement.  Amid rumors of disaffection 
within her own Sri Lanka Freedom Party, no other parties, 
with the exception of the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance 
and the former paramilitary Eelam People's Democratic Party, 
have come out in public support of the mechanism.  The 
prelates' monolithic opposition--and the moral and religious 
weight their position carries in this predominantly Buddhist 
country--will make it increasingly difficult for the 
President to move ahead with the agreement.  Violence 
continues in the east.  Police have taken in two members of 
an anti-LTTE organization for questioning in connection with 
the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE journalist Dharmaretnam 
Sivaram.  End summary. 
 
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ANTI-MECHANISM MOVES 
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2.  (U) On June 9 the chief prelates of the four Buddhist 
chapters in Sri Lanka issued a joint public statement against 
the proposed "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  Citing the rapidly 
deteriorating condition of the hunger-striking Ven. Omalpe 
Sobitha Thero, a Buddhist monk and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) 
MP (Ref B), the four head monks (or "Mahanayakes") urged 
President Chandrika Kumaratunga to issue a definitive 
statement pledging not to sign the mechanism.  Absent such a 
statement, the Mahanayakes threatened her with an "edict" 
calling the entire Buddhist Sangha and laity together in a 
mass convocation against the mechanism. 
 
3.  (U) On June 10 the Patriotic National Movement, a front 
for the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP), organized an anti-mechanism march in Colombo; the JVP 
is scheduled for a June 14 rally with the same theme.  At a 
June 10 press conference, JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe 
announced that his party would leave the government on June 
16 if the President had not publicly withdrawn support for 
the mechanism by midnight June 15.  Echoing earlier 
complaints (Ref B), the JVP leader criticized the President 
for keeping the mechanism text hidden from everyone except a 
few members of her coterie.  Amarasinghe also called on the 
opposition United National Party (UNP) to make its position 
on the mechanism public. 
 
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MUSLIMS SPLIT 
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4.  (C) On June 9 President Kumaratunga met with Muslim MPs 
who support the government to enlist their support for the 
joint mechanism.  According to sources in the Presidential 
Secretariat, the Muslim MPs indicated possible support for 
 
SIPDIS 
the mechanism subject to some modifications--e.g., that a 
Muslim representative, in addition to the Government and 
LTTE, also sign the agreement and that Muslims be given 
representation equal to that of the Tigers in regional-level 
committees. The President reportedly promised to have a 
response to that request by June 17, after consulting the 
Norwegians.  (Note:  See Ref A on Ambassador's June 9 meeting 
with the President.)  The President has not briefed the 
opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) on the joint 
mechanism and has not approached SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem for 
support, according to Shafeek Rajabdeen, Colombo District 
Organizer for the SLMC.  Instead, the President "is trying to 
ignore us," he complained, and "Hakeem has been totally 
sidelined in the discussions."  Since Muslims were the 
population most heavily affected by the tsunami in the east, 
any discussion of a joint mechanism on tsunami aid ought to 
include them, Rajabdeen asserted.  While the mechanism might 
be a good idea in principle, Rajabdeen concluded, the SLMC 
cannot support it at this time because the party leadership 
does not know what is in the document.  (Note:  Three of the 
seven SLMC MPs who won seats in the 2004 election have 
crossed the aisle to join the government.) 
 
 
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OUTSIDERS BETTING AGAINST PRESIDENT SIGNING 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) On June 9 UNP MP Navin Dissanayake told poloff that 
he doubts Kumaratunga will actually sign the controversial 
agreement, given the staunch opposition voiced by the 
Mahanayakes and purported dissension within the ranks of her 
own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Ref B).  Instead, he theorized, 
she will likely stand down and try to put the best face on 
her reversal by claiming she remains committed to the 
principle of a joint mechanism but was prevented by JVP 
opposition from realizing these principles.  Father A.I. 
Bernard, a Catholic priest in Jaffna who maintains contact 
with the LTTE, said that the prevailing view up north is 
skeptical that the President will sign.  Jaffna spectators 
believe the "President is losing her grip" on the government, 
thanks in large part to JVP agitation--agitation that the JVP 
can be expected to continue "until they come to the top." 
Noting press reports that the President might be considering 
some modifications to the text of the agreement, Fr. Bernard 
said he doubted the LTTE would accept such tinkering at this 
late date.  Tamils in the north were "losing trust" and felt 
there was "no point in hoping anymore" for an improvement in 
their situation for three reasons:  the lack of leadership in 
the south; the lack of unity in the south; and ethnically 
divisive pronouncements by the JVP and the JHU, he asserted. 
"Attitudes are hardening" everywhere, he concluded glumly, 
adding that the country seemed to be heading toward a 
resumption of hostilities. 
 
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MORE VIOLENCE; TWO ARRESTS 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) On June 8 police apprehended two members of the 
anti-LTTE People's Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam 
(PLOTE) for questioning in the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE 
journalist Dharmaretnam Sivaram (Ref D). Public Security 
Secretary Tilak Ranaviraja confirmed the arrests to us on 
 
SIPDIS 
June 9.  (Note:  Sivaram was originally a member of the 
anti-LTTE paramilitary PLOTE.  Under the Ceasefire Agreement, 
non-LTTE Tamil paramilitaries were supposed to have been 
disarmed.  PLOTE's numbers--and thus its activities--have 
diminished over the past 10 years.  End note.) 
 
7. (SBU)  While there has been a visible increase in Sri 
Lanka Army personnel on Colombo streets over the past few 
days, violence persists in the east.  On June 8 two LTTE 
cadres were killed in a mine explosion in Ampara District two 
km from a Sri Lanka Army checkpoint.  The LTTE's 
Batticaloa-Ampara political wing blamed the attack on the 
Special Task Force (STF) and unidentified "paramilitary 
cadres" allegedly working with the STF and lodged a complaint 
with the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission.  The STF denied the 
allegation the following day, claiming instead the two LTTE 
cadres had been shot by a disgruntled former comrade-in-arms. 
 Government forces and the LTTE also traded accusations over 
the June 9 killing of a civilian bystander in Batticaloa when 
shots were fired at an anti-LTTE Eelam People's Democratic 
Party (EPDP) member and his military escort.  The Defense 
Ministry reported that suspected LTTE gunmen killed the 
civilian after they opened fire on the EPDP entourage, also 
wounding one EPDP member and an Army corporal escorting him, 
while the LTTE claimed the 45-year-old trishaw driver was 
killed when the Sri Lanka Army returned fire. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C) If the President faced an uphill struggle before, the 
Mahanayakes' unanimous disapproval of the mechanism--and the 
threat of a Buddhist edict to quash it--now makes the battle 
seem almost unwinnable. The Mahanayakes' intervention has 
moved the issue out of the purely political realm, giving it 
moral and religious implications as well.  With only the 
pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the dubious 
paramilitary-cum-party EPDP expressing open support for the 
mechanism so far (and, with the Mahanayakes' thumbs-down, the 
tacit disapproval of over 70 percent of the population), it 
is becoming increasingly difficult for the President to claim 
she has a mandate to move forward on the mechanism. 
LUNSTEAD