US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI2557

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002557 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ROBERT 
PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
Summary: 
 
1. Taiwan dailies focused June 10 on the election for the 
new president of National Taiwan University (NTU), and U.S. 
President George W. Bush's comments on cross-Strait 
relations.  The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" and 
the conservative, pro-unification "United Daily News" both 
reported on their front pages that Professor Lee Si-chen was 
elected as the new president of NTU.  Pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" carried a banner-headline on the front page 
that read "If China were to invade [Taiwan,] Bush promised 
to defend Taiwan."  However, pro-independence "Liberty 
Times," Taiwan's largest daily, downplayed both issues; its 
front page highlighted the arrest of a local merchant who 
sold contaminated flour. 
 
2. Taiwan dailies editorialized and commented June 10 on 
local issues, such as the second stage of constitutional 
reforms, the protest staged by Taiwan fishermen against 
Japanese patrol vessels, and the policy to raise taxes.  The 
"Taiwan Daily," however, editorialized that the Taiwan 
people should unite to counter China's military threat even 
though U.S. President George W. Bush has promised to defend 
Taiwan if China were to invade.  A commentary from the pro- 
independence, English-language, "Taipei Time" said although 
the "hawkish faction" in China might not want to listen to 
President Chen Shui-bian's call for peace, Chen stills needs 
to support his words with actions. End summary. 
 
A) "Only A Unified Taiwan Can Face China's Provocation of 
Reviewing The Draft of The `Emergency Status Law.'" 
 
Pro-independence Taiwan Daily [circulation: 150,000] 
editorialized that (06/10): 
 
". [C]hina still plans to review the draft of the `Emergency 
Status Law' as a supplement law for the `Anti-Secession Law' 
to rationalize and internalize its plan to use force against 
Taiwan.  China's bully behavior, which contradicts Taiwan 
public opinion, has imposed again a negative impact on cross- 
Strait relations, and has added an influential variable to 
the development of cross-Strait relations. 
 
"[T]he United States has also felt China's military threat, 
but it is fundamental for Taiwan to make unceasing efforts 
to improve itself, to strengthen its military buildup, and 
to enrich the Taiwan people's psychological defense 
capabilities.  Taiwan cannot rely solely on U.S. President 
George W. Bush's promise [to defend Taiwan according to the 
Taiwan Relations Act], neither can Taiwan wait for the 
United States to stretch out friendly hands.  Because once a 
war erupts in the Taiwan Strait, China will launch a 
decisive strike to defeat Taiwan's military as soon as 
possible to dissolve Taiwan society's capability to resist 
[it].  Hence, we need to strengthen Taiwan's military 
buildup, and solidify the Taiwan people's psychology. ." 
 
B) "Voices of Peace Are Barely Audible" 
 
Wang Kun-yi, associate professor at the Graduate Institute 
of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang 
University, commented in the pro-independence, English- 
language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000](06/10): 
 
". [T]he national security departments within the People's 
Liberation Army (PLA) have extensively studied the issue of 
referendums and concluded that the attempt to include these 
in the Constitution is the first step toward seeking de jure 
independence.  On May 28 and 29, China's Taiwan experts 
convened in Beihai, Guangxi province, in the hope of setting 
the tone for future cross-Strait relations. 
 
"During the meeting, some proposed directly negotiating the 
sovereignty issue and the status of Taiwan with Taipei 
rather than the impractical suggestion that `all topics are 
open for discussion.'  Apparently, these people have been 
racking their brains to seek ways for both sides to make 
concessions and engage in dialogue. 
 
"Such a claim has yet to garner sufficient support within 
China. . 
 
". [T]here is still hope for peace.  China is monitoring the 
various statements coming from the government, but since the 
Chen administration does not support its words with actions, 
the Chinese officials in charge of Taiwan affairs have been 
vexed over what is true and what is not.  What they hope for 
most of all is for Chen to put his aspirations down on 
paper, listing the conditions on which negotiations can be 
resumed.  Only then might all topics be open for discussion. 
 
"Therefore, to open the `window of opportunity' for peace 
across the Taiwan Strait, Chen not only has to make clear 
what he is prepared to do for the establishment of a 
`mechanism of mutual trust,' he also has to ascertain 
whether the `doves' in the Chinese government are willing to 
accept his goodwill.  Unfortunately, this `voice of peace' 
is not able to make itself heard over the voice of those 
calling for a `civil war' across the Strait.  That is why we 
have the current crisis, and that is why US Secretary of 
Defense Donald Rumsfeld felt it necessary at a conference in 
Singapore on the weekend to warn of expanding Chinese 
military activity." 
 
PAAL