US embassy cable - 05PARIS4044

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 004044 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR DRL/IL, EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND 
EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, EU, FR, PINR, SOCI, ECON 
SUBJECT: DOMINIQUE DE VILLEPIN'S MAIDEN SPEECH AS PRIME 
MINISTER -- PROJECTING COMMAND OVER GRIDLOCK AND 
CONFRONTATION 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (SBU) A tightly self-controlled Dominique de Villepin -- 
he stuck to an uncharacteristically dry text and kept his 
hands glued to the podium throughout -- delivered his 
"general policy" speech to a packed National Assembly on June 
8.  Villepin was clearly focused on televisually 
communicating firmness and determination to the public at 
large, and he may have partially succeeded.  As expected, the 
speech focused on tackling France's high unemployment. 
Villepin outlined a series of -- at best, modestly innovative 
-- policy proposals intended to ease hiring and encourage 
business expansion, and declared that as many of these as 
possible would be implemented by decree.  Reaction to the 
speech inside the National Assembly highlighted the way the 
May 29th referendum has exacerbated partisan differences 
among the major parties (all of which supported the proposed 
EU constitution, which was massively rejected by voters in 
the May 29 referendum).  As expected, Villepin's government 
handily won the vote of confidence that followed the "general 
policy" speech.  Uncompromising opposition to the policies 
proposed was immediate; before the parliamentary session had 
ended, Bernard Thibaut, head of the formerly communist 
General Confederation of Labor (CGT) called for a national 
day of protest on June 21.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE SPEECH: ON VIDEO VERSUS LIVE 
-------------------------------- 
2.  (SBU) In delivering his "general policy" speech to a 
packed National Assembly on June 8, Prime Minister Dominique 
de Villepin seemed clearly focused on projecting himself as a 
calm and determined national leader.  Despite ample 
provocation in the form of taunting interruptions from 
members of the opposition, Villepin never strayed from an 
uncharacteristically dry text that outlined a largely 
unsurprising set of measures (septel) aimed at combating 
unemployment.  In a way that seemed calculated to convey -- 
on television -- seriousness and firmness, Villepin cut out 
all Gallic gesticulation and spoke in minimally modulated 
tones.  Polls show that at least two thirds of the French do 
not have high expectations, either for Villepin or his 
assault on France's unemployment problem.  It remains to be 
seen if this carefully controlled, first major appearance as 
prime minister projects an image that boosts people's 
confidence in Villepin and the likely effectiveness of his 
leadership. 
 
3.  (SBU) Reaction to the speech as it was being delivered 
inside the National Assembly fully confirmed the French 
parliament's reputation for unruliness; indeed, for unabashed 
public rudeness.  "D'Artagnan!" mocked a member of the 
socialist opposition, interrupting Villepin during a (rare) 
florid moment during his speech.  Pitiless partisanship also 
characterized the right's reaction to Socialist Party (PS) 
National Secretary Francois Hollande's response to the Prime 
Minister's policy proposals.  As Hollande evoked the 
Socialist Party's alternative propositions for tackling 
France's high unemployment, rightist members, pointing up 
Hollande's lack of authority in the divided party following 
the May 29 referendum loss, started chanting "Fabius, Fabius, 
Fabius" -- as if calling for the leader of the dissident and 
victorious socialist 'no' camp to speak for the Socialist 
Party. 
 
PARTISAN "IMMOBILISM" AND 2007 PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
4.  (SBU) The reaction to the speech among parliamentarians 
highlighted the way the political crisis engendered by the 
May 29th referendum has prompted more politics-as-usual, 
rather than any cold assessment by the political class of the 
reasons for its rejection May 29.  The avid partisanship on 
display in the National Assembly does not bode well for the 
Villepin government's chances of bringing about major 
reforms.  The political gridlock excoriated by Villepin may 
well have already set in, as political decisions, 
notwithstanding the current disarray in policy direction and 
institutional credibility, are calculated more and more in 
terms of their impact on the 2007 presidential race, rather 
than any improvement they might bring to France's stagnant 
economy and paralyzed (legal) labor market.  The factionalism 
within the center left (reformist versus dissident 
socialists) and within the center-right (Sarkozist 'liberals' 
versus Gaullists 'statists') will make it that much more 
difficult for Villepin to get anything done.  (Indeed, during 
his speech expressions of support for Villepin from the right 
were markedly lukewarm and perfunctory).  Villepin's 
intention -- out of necessity -- to implement his policy 
proposals by decree rather than parliamentary action will be 
generating as much opposition as will the content of the 
policies decreed. 
 
IMAGE PROJECTION OVER THE GRIDLOCK AND CONFRONTATION 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
5.  (SBU) His unspinnable, crushing defeat in the May 29 
referendum has diminished the stature and visibility of 
President Chirac.  Prime Minister Villepin and Interior 
Minister Sarkozy have taken center stage in what is shaping 
up as a competition for the confidence of center-right voters 
in view of the 2007 presidential race.  Both will be very 
attentive to cultivating their image with the public at 
large, focused on projecting competence and effectiveness 
notwithstanding the intractability of France's social and 
economic problems and a political gridlock that puts 
long-term, compromise solutions out of reach.  Evidence of 
the opposition's confrontational mood -- the Villepin 
government will get no honeymoon -- was not long in coming. 
Before the parliamentary session at which Villepin outlined 
his policy initiatives had ended, Bernard Thibaut, head of 
the formerly communist CGT labor union federation, called for 
a national day of protest June 21. 
WOLFF