US embassy cable - 05BRUSSELS2231

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA - LERSTEN; EUR/CACEN - LOGSDON; EUR/RPM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, UZ, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU CONSIDERING HARDER LINE ON UZBEKISTAN 
 
REF: A. A) TASHKENT 1623 
 
     B. B) STATE 106098 
     C. C) BRUSSELS 2008 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: EU Foreign Ministers will consider taking 
punitive measures against Uzbekistan unless the GOU agrees by 
the end of June to an independent, international inquiry into 
the Andijon events.  If the GOU does not agree to an 
international inquiry, Germany plans to push for use of the 
OSCE "Moscow Mechanism," by which 10 or more OSCE member 
states can call for an OSCE rapporteur on Andijon without 
Uzbekistan's agreement.  The possibility of an EU visa ban, 
after the end-of-June deadline, on high-level GOU officials 
has also been raised.  Although the outcome of internal 
deliberations is uncertain, those calling for a harder line 
appear to be gaining ground within the EU.  Meanwhile, France 
has not yet officially refused the GOU's invitation to 
monitor a GOU-led investigation (REFS A-B).  The EU is still 
trying to get its Special Rep for Human Rights a visa to 
visit Uzbekistan, despite the GOU's recent refusal to grant 
one.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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EU DEBATING TOUGH POLICY DECLARATION 
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2. (C) On June 8 Poloff met with Leo Schulte-Nordholt, EU 
Council Principal Officer for OSCE Affairs, and Ausra 
Aleliunaite, EU Council Principal Officer for Central Asia. 
They said EU Foreign Ministers would discuss, at the June 13 
GAERC meeting, a draft declaration on Uzbekistan.  The 
declaration will repeat EU FMs' May 23 call for the GOU to 
agree to an independent, international inquiry into the 
Andijon events (REF C).  Two questions are being debated 
internally: (1) whether to set a deadline (probably the end 
of June) for the GOU to agree to an international 
investigation; and (2) whether to outline specific punitive 
measures the EU would take if the Uzbeks do not agree by the 
deadline.  Schulte-Nordholt said the main action under 
consideration was to downgrade the EU-Uzbekistan Partnership 
and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), and cut off development 
assistance other than aid that goes directly to independent 
civil society groups. 
 
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FRENCH UNLIKELY TO ACCEPT UZBEK INVITATION 
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3. (C) Our interlocutors reported that France had raised the 
question within the EU of whether it should accept the Uzbek 
invitation to monitor a GOU investigation of the Andijon 
events.  They told us that, although France had fended off 
all Uzbek approaches on this question so far, it had not yet 
come to a final decision.  In the light of the EU call for an 
independent international inquiry, though, they predicted the 
EU would counsel France against accepting the Uzbek 
invitation.  Language declining the invitation to the French 
might be included in the June 13 FMs' declaration, they said. 
 
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EU HUMAN RIGHTS REP TO VISIT UZBEKISTAN? 
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4. (C) Schulte-Nordholt told us that EU HighRep Javier Solana 
was trying to persuade the Uzbeks to grant his Special Rep 
for Human Rights a visa to visit Uzbekistan.  The Special 
Rep, Michael Matthiessen, had been denied a visa last week. 
Schulte-Nordholt added that Matthiessen was trying to get the 
EU FMs' declaration to include language calling on the GOU to 
grant the visa.  Schulte-Nordholt predicted, though, that EU 
FM's would balk at making demands at that level of 
specificity. 
 
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IF UZBEKS REFUSE, MOSCOW MECHANISM? 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Schulte-Nordholt said that Germany was likely to 
invoke the OSCE Moscow Mechanism (by which ten or more OSCE 
member states would appoint a rapporteur on Uzbekistan 
without GOU concurrence) if the Uzbeks refused to allow an 
international investigation by the notional EU-imposed 
deadline of end of June.  He said the Germans were attempting 
to get agreement on this from all of the 24 other EU member 
states, but might well press on even if EU consensus proved 
unachievable.  Schulte-Nordholt added that the Germans could 
easily get the agreement of at least 9 other EU member 
states, thus reaching the number required by OSCE rules. 
 
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AN EU VISA BAN ON GOU OFFICIALS? 
-------------------------------- 
6. (C) Schulte-Nordholt told us the possibility of an EU visa 
ban on high-level GOU officials had also been raised.  If the 
EU did set an end-of-June deadline and the Uzbeks did not 
meet the deadline, he said, deliberations on such a ban would 
begin in earnest. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: Our interlocutors stressed that the questions 
of whether to impose a deadline and name specific punitive 
measures were still undecided.  Nonetheless, those within the 
EU calling for a harder line to force the GOU's hand seem to 
be gaining momentum.  END COMMENT. 
 
SCHNABEL 
.