US embassy cable - 05AMMAN4652

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004652 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KPAL, ECON, JO 
SUBJECT: THE KING PLAYS HIS HAND 
 
REF: AMMAN 4368 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  In a series of meetings and remarks reported 
prominently in the Jordanian media, King Abdullah confirmed 
this week that the government will seek a vote of confidence 
for Badran's government during an extraordinary session of 
parliament to be convened at the end of June or beginning of 
July.  He also addressed the persistent fears of East Bankers 
about the direction of his reform program by promising "no 
settlement" of Palestinians not currently holding Jordanian 
citizenship and by putting off any changes to the Jordanian 
constitution that would threaten the political ascendancy of 
Jordan's East Bank population.  Reaction to the King's 
remarks was publicly positive, with many observers and 
commentators predicting the beginning of the end of the 
present Cabinet-parliament stalemate.  Despite a subsequent 
vow by oppositionist MPs to hold fast to their demands, 
contacts widely believe the GOJ will secure the vote of 
confidence, but not without incurring significant costs.  The 
King anticipates resolving the crisis by adding three 
southerners to the cabinet while leaving all other 
appointments unchanged.  End Summary. 
 
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KING CONFIRMS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE COMING SOON 
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2.  (U)  During an extensive joint interview with local 
Arabic-language dailies al-Dustour and al-Arab al-Youm on 
June 4, King Abdullah confirmed that the government will seek 
a vote of confidence for embattled PM Badran and his cabinet 
during an extraordinary session of parliament in the coming 
weeks (reftel).  Emphasizing that contacts with key MPs are 
underway to resolve the matter, the King said: "I am in 
contact with senior officials to look into the possibility of 
an early request for a vote of confidence during this month 
or early next month," adding that "this will be clear within 
the next 10 days."  According to the King: "After that, we 
will keep an eye on the performance of the ministerial 
economic team for evaluation.  If they do not do their job in 
the following six months, they will be held accountable for 
that." 
 
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KING ALSO TRIES TO TAMP DOWN EAST BANKERS' FEARS 
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3.  (C)  During the interview, the King addressed the ongoing 
controversy that erupted after former Minister of Information 
Technology and Communications Fawaz Zoubi (a poster child for 
private sector-led reform, and inevitably, of West Bank 
origin) published a lengthy analysis of the reform process 
that has further inflamed East-West Bank sensitivities, 
already on a slow boil given East Bankers' unhappiness with 
the Badran cabinet's perceived Palestinian-heavy composition. 
 In a thinly veiled response to the flurry of political 
commentary responding to Zoubi's article, the King tried to 
reassure his nervous East Bank loyalist base that the reform 
process will not politically empower Jordanians of 
Palestinian origin.  He said that amending the Constitution 
is a "red line" that cannot be crossed, adding that 
"rejecting resettlement (tawteen) of (Palestinian refugees in 
Jordan) is firm and will not change." 
 
4.  (U)  The King's remarks closely mirror those he made just 
days after a private, but widely reported meeting with 
members of the Jordanian Senate in which the King is said to 
have weighed in heavily on what are considered East Bankers' 
core concerns: no to "settlement" of those Palestinian in the 
country not currently carrying Jordanian citizenship; and 
declaring a "red line" preventing any alteration to the 
Jordanian Constitution (and its enshrinement on the current 
political system that preserves East Bank prerogatives 
despite a Palestinian-heavy population). 
 
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COMMENTS WELL RECEIVED, BUT MPS STAND THEIR GROUND 
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5.  (U)  The King's comments were hailed in the official 
press by political leaders of every stripe as "wise" and 
"reassuring."   The line-up of endorsements included one from 
Islamic Action Front Secretary General Hamza Mansour. 
Meanwhile, the 48 members of parliament who have pledged to 
withhold their votes from any motion of confidence in the 
current cabinet, while expressing their loyalty to the King 
and their support for reform, reiterated their no-compromise 
position during a meeting on June 5.  They remain 
dissatisfied with the lack of consultation before the cabinet 
was formed, the dearth of Cabinet members from the south, and 
the composition of the economic team, which, according to the 
MPs, "have no interaction or contact with the concerns of the 
Jordanian people, in addition to their ignorance of the 
reality of those people."  Even so, a few oppositionist MPs 
tried to take a conciliatory stand.  MP Abdallah al-Jazi (one 
of the signatories from the southern Badia) commented to 
al-Ghad daily: "His Majesty's words about the need to find 
common grounds with this or any other government is for the 
public interest and the interest of the homeland."  According 
to al-Jazi, the King's statements "were read thoroughly," and 
"they contributed to curbing rather than intensifying tension 
between the executive and legislative authorities.... His 
Majesty was clear in emphasizing that there will be no 
constitutional amendment and that there are no plans to 
settle Palestinians in Jordan." 
 
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VOTE OF CONFIDENCE EXPECTED, BUT NOT WITHOUT A COST 
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6.  (C)  However, a number of East Bank commentators have 
predicted the King's intervention will ultimately prove 
decisive in bringing about the "beginning of the end" of the 
current stand-off.  Prominent East Bank weekly Shihan went so 
far as to declare in a front-page headline: "End of the 
Crisis."  A senator and prominent columnist who was present 
at the King's meeting with senators told IO that a likely 
scenario would include PM Badran carrying out a limited 
Cabinet reshuffle immediately prior to the convening of an 
extraordinary session, during which he would bring on three 
East Bank ministers representing the southern governorates, 
thereby satisfying one of the stated demands of the "no 
confidence" bloc.  No ministers among the "economic team" 
would be touched at this point.  This initial half-measure, 
combined with the King's reassurances regarding East Bankers' 
political prerogatives, would, he predicted, solve the 
problem for now.  (The King has said to Charge that he was 
thinking of resolving the crisis along these lines.) 
 
7.  (C)  While many contacts believe that the government will 
eventually come out on top with a vote of confidence, they 
add that the fray has strengthened parliament at the expense 
of Badran's government.  One contact commented to poloff that 
the King made a mistake by announcing that the economic 
team's performance would be evaluated in six months, saying 
that such a short time frame is unrealistic given that 
economic reform demands patience and time.  By setting such a 
deadline, the King has set the team up for more severe 
oppositionist attacks which will only be exacerbated by the 
intense debate most observers expect over fuel price 
increases, which on June 7 the cabinet committed to begin 
this year, starting with elimination of JD 120 million in 
various subsidies.  As a result of the "no confidence" bloc's 
tenacity (and the fact that their gripe over the lack of 
consultation resonates with wide segments of the population), 
parliament has succeeded in ensuring that the King will 
consult with parliament before naming future cabinets, one 
contact told poloff.  Many expect the Badran government to be 
short lived no matter what compromise is reached -- the 
damage is done.  Indeed, one contact involved in the 
government's public sector reform initiative told IO that the 
Prime Minister now laces his conduct of weekly cabinet 
meetings with black humor about his dim prospects for a 
lengthy tenure. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE