US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1036

UNCLAS  SOFIA 001036 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE JUNE 25TH ELECTION 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 808, (B) SOFIA 836, (C) SOFIA 931, (D) SOFIA 1020 
 
1. SUMMARY:  Bulgaria holds general elections on June 25 to elect 
240 members of parliament for a four-year term.  The MPs are 
elected through a system of proportional representation in 31 
electoral regions, and parties must win a minimum four percent of 
the nationwide vote to enter parliament.  The 2001 general election 
was won by the ruling National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) which 
is now trailing the main opposition Socialists.  Elections are 
preceded by a month-long campaign - which began May 25. 
Preliminary results are announced by the Central Electoral 
Commission usually within several hours of the 8 p.m. poll closing. 
The President convenes the first session of the new parliament 
within a month of the vote.  The incumbent government operates on a 
lame-duck basis until its successor is approved by the newly 
elected parliament, a process which in the past has taken roughly a 
month.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  As a parliamentary republic, Bulgaria's unicameral parliament 
approves the PM and his ministers, exercises control over the 
government, and sanctions deployment of troops abroad.  Twenty-two 
parties and coalitions are running in the elections, compared to 64 
in 2001, but opinion polls show only six have a realistic chance to 
enter parliament.  In previous post-communist elections only three 
to five parties have succeeded.  Currently, the PM's ruling NMSS, 
the poll-leading Socialists, the major center-right coalition led 
by the Union of Democratic Forces and the predominantly ethnic 
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) are expected to 
safely make it to the next parliament.  Two smaller center-right 
groups, the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria and the Union of Free 
Democrats, hover on the four-percent vote threshold required to be 
seated in the parliament as a party (Ref. A, B, D). 
 
THE PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SYSTEM 
 
3. Under Bulgaria's proportional representation system, parties and 
coalitions put up rank-ordered lists of candidates for each of the 
country's 31 electoral regions.  Each district is allocated a 
certain number of seats in parliament, depending on its population. 
Citizens cannot change the candidates' order or add or delete names 
on the party lists.  They in effect cast their vote for the party 
rather than the individual.  MP candidates can run in two electoral 
regions, which is usually the case with the party leaders and the 
most popular politicians.  If a candidate wins in both places, 
he/she steps down in favor of the number two on the list in one of 
the regions.  The winning party is determined by the parties' 
performance at the national level.  Parties and coalitions must win 
a minimum four percent of the nationwide vote to enter parliament. 
Seats are then allocated to the parties in the electoral district 
in exactly the same ratio as the distribution of votes between the 
different parties in the district.  However, the seats are 
distributed only among the parties that meet the national 
threshold. 
 
4. The distribution of seats in parliament depends both on the 
voter turnout and the number of parties and coalitions that cross 
the four percent threshold.  The votes for parties that do not make 
the threshold are redistributed using the d'Hondt method of 
proportional representation (also known as the highest average 
method), which favors the winning parties with a greater percentage 
of assembly seats than their actual vote would win.  The party with 
the best showing gets the lion's share of the redistributed votes. 
Thus, a possible low turnout will likely favor the Socialists who 
have the most disciplined electorate, and at this stage seem to be 
in the best position to emerge as the biggest parliamentary 
faction.  If many of the small center-right parties fail to cross 
the threshold the largest percentage of their vote will ironically 
be added to the Socialists.  In 2001, the NMSS received 42.74 
percent of the votes but won 50 percent of the seats in Parliament 
through the redistributed vote. 
 
ELECTION RULES 
 
5. The election is organized by the Central Electoral Commission 
(CEC) whose 25 members are nominated by the President and 
parliamentary parties.  No single party has a majority.  Elections 
are preceded by a month-long campaign which kicked off May 25. 
Campaigning is forbidden on election day and the day before the 
vote.  Polling stations open at 6 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.  Voting 
age is 18.  Exit polls are allowed but results cannot be announced 
before polling stations close.  Preliminary results are usually 
announced by CEC within several hours after the end of voting. 
Final results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC 
within four days.  The list of names of newly-elected MPs is 
announced in seven days.  There will be 11,475 polling stations in 
Bulgaria and about 500 polling stations in 72 countries abroad, 
with the largest number of stations in the U.S., Canada, Turkey and 
Greece.  Polling stations are planned for 31 U.S. cities, up from 
17 in 2001. 
 
THE BALLOT 
 
6. For the 2005 general election Bulgaria has introduced a 
consolidated ballot that includes all parties.  Voters check the 
party list of their choice.  Bulgarians have voted with such ballot 
 
only once - in a local election.  In previous general elections 
voters had to choose among ballots with different colors for 
different political parties, something perceived as an anachronism 
contradicting the European electoral practice.  The introduction of 
a white, consolidated ballot as part of legislative changes 
initiated by the ruling NMSS has stirred political passions.  The 
ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior partner in the government, said the 
new ballot might prove difficult to use by the ethnic Turks, some 
of whom are illiterate. 
 
FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
7. The President must convene the newly elected MPs for the first 
session of parliament within a month of the election.  After 
political consultations, the President tasks the PM-designate of 
the largest parliamentary group to form a government.  The 
parliamentary group may be a political party, a pre-election 
coalition or a post-election union of political groups which ran 
separately in the elections.  There is no set deadline for the 
President to ask the first-place group to form a government. 
 
8. If the parliament fails to approve the government line-up or the 
PM-designate fails to propose a cabinet within seven days of being 
asked, the mandate goes to the second largest parliamentary group. 
If the PM-designate of the second largest group fails to form a 
government, the President, at his discretion, tasks any of the 
other parliamentary groups to nominate a PM.  Only if the third 
parliamentary group's PM-designate fails to form a government, does 
the President appoint a caretaker PM and government, dissolves 
parliament and schedules new elections. The incumbent government 
operates on a lame-duck basis until its successor is sworn in 
following the elections.  The process has taken roughly a month in 
past post-communist elections but a drawn out process is also 
possible.  (Ref. C)