US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI4330

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 004330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, KCRM, KWMN, BG, IN, India-Bangladesh 
SUBJECT: INDO-BANGLADESHI RELATIONS SOUR 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 2410 
 
Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Relations between India and Bangladesh have 
soured since the April 16 killing of a BSF guard along the 
India-Bangladesh border, with increased concerns about 
illegal migration and terrorist groups along the border and 
calls for a more aggressive Indian policy towards the GOB. 
At the one year anniversary of the UPA government, most 
experts consider GOI policy towards Bangladesh as one of the 
few weak spots in an otherwise impressive year in foreign 
policy.  As the GOI tries to keep ties with Dhaka on an even 
keel, we are hearing more criticism of the GOI for lacking a 
comprehensive policy to deal effectively with the GOB.  A 
meeting between the Foreign Ministers planned for the end of 
June and the rescheduling of the SAARC Summit in November 
offer opportunities to improve ties.  End Summary. 
 
Bangladesh: Weak Point of Indian Foreign Policy 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
2.  (U) The recent one year anniversary "report cards" for 
the UPA government gave the GOI a low grade on its policy 
towards Bangladesh, with most observers naming it as one of 
the weakest areas of performance during a year of otherwise 
impressive foreign policy gains.  Ambassador G. 
Parthasarathy, former High Comissioner to Pakistan, gave the 
GOI an "C minus or F" grade in this area.  "Hindustan Times" 
Editor Vir Sanghvi called Bangladesh one of two "areas of 
concern."  He worried that India has neglected Bangladesh 
because New Delhi is "obsessed with Pakistan," but that it 
should be more proactive because if Bangladesh fails as a 
state, "much of its population would end up on our doorstep." 
 
 
More Lows than Highs 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The Ministry of Defense voiced growing concern over 
Bangladesh in its 2004-2005 annual report released in early 
May, which criticized the GOB for being "insensitive and 
unresponsive" to India's security concerns.  Increasing 
political violence in Bangladesh and tussles along the border 
are leading many experts to conclude that relations have hit 
at a low point.  Anil Kamboj, previously an Additional Deputy 
Inspector General in the BSF, concluded recently that 
relations, especially along the border, have deteriorated 
over the last 10 years, to the point where "cooperation 
across the board is impossible."  Former Deputy National 
Security Advisor Satish Chandra told visiting House 
International Relations Committe Senior Staffer James 
McCormick on June 1 that Bangladesh should be India's "number 
one concern today." 
 
4.  (C) In response to these concerns, Bangladesh High 
Commission First Secretary Bodiruzzaman recently observed to 
Poloff that the relationship between the two countries has 
always been one of "highs and lows" and that these problems 
should "not hamper bilateral relations," complaining that the 
"border mars the situation when we have worked so hard" to 
improve over the last 2-3 years."  Despite these assurances, 
the Indian newsweekly "Outlook" magazine recently reported 
that a Bangladesh Foreign Ministry Committee headed by 
barrister Ziaur Rahman of the BNP described relations "as the 
worst-ever since the birth of the country in 1971" and blamed 
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Morshed Khan for the souring in 
relations. 
 
Continuing Border Tensions 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) These recent developments take place against a 
backdrop of concerns along the border.  Despite the presence 
of border guards on both sides and fencing along most areas, 
the porous border, which includes the states of West Bengal, 
Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram, remains a day-to-day 
irritant in Indo-Bangla relations.  Assam Governor Ajai Singh 
sparked controversy on May 20 when he claimed that "up to 
6,000 illegal infiltrators were entering Assam and other 
states in the region daily."  However, the 2001 census of 
Assam showed a normal growth curve suggesting at most modest 
emigration from Bangladesh in the 1991-2001 period.  Chief 
Minister Tarun Gogoi refuted the numbers, but estimates of 
the number of illegal migrants range from five million from 
the Union Minister of State for Home Prakash Jaiswal to 12-18 
million from MEA Bangladesh Desk Officer Puneet Kandal.  The 
Bangladesh High Commission's Bodiruzzaman admitted that the 
GOB "can't deny all immigration," but considered these 
figures, "like all news about Bangladesh, exaggerated for 
domestic consumption". 
 
6.  (C) In response to India's complaint about the recent 
death of the BSF guard, Bodiruzzaman countered that loss of 
life is heavier on the Bangladesh side, and that these deaths 
are never reported in India, observing that after the April 
incident, 11-12 Bangladeshi citizens were killed.  In 2004, 
BSF guards killed approximately 80 Bangladeshi citizens, he 
claimed, whereas there have already been 47 deaths in 2005, 
all unreported in Indian media.  Some press reports claimed 
that the BSF guard killed in April was armed and within 
Bangladeshi territory when he was killed, although others 
reported that he was lured in by the BDR in a case of a 
cooperative illegal racket gone wrong.  Masud Bin Momem, the 
Acting Bangladeshi High Commissioner in New Delhi, stressed 
to Poloff that despite the large contribution Bangladeshis 
make to India's economy, Bangladesh is "blamed for 
everything."  He worried about an anti-Bangladesh backlash, 
and pointed to the recent controversy over the potential 
closure of Mumbai dance bars as an example of India blaming 
his country for its own larger morality problem.  Of the bar 
girls in Mumbai, some 30 percent are suspected to be illegal 
Bangladeshis, virtually all of whom were likely trafficked 
for sexual or labor explotation. 
 
7.  (C) Frustrated with the rising number of Bangladeshi 
migrants living in India, a group of young Assamese men 
called the "Chiring Chapori Yuva Mancha" ("Youth Forum from 
Chiring Chapori") on May 12 reportedly forced out up to 
15,000 suspected illegal migrants from the Dibrugarh and 
neighboring areas.  The Congress-controlled Assam government 
was reportedly aware of the movement and has taken no action. 
 This vigilante gang blamed "vote bank politics" for the lack 
of deportations.  Dr. Prakash Singh, a former BSF Director 
General, adding that "the state government is not taking any 
action to detect or deport illegal migrants and Prakash Singh 
worried that these evictions could get out of hand and lead 
to an "explosive situation." 
 
Short Term Fencing Measures 
--------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) After the BSF official's death in April, BSF DG 
Mooshahary visited the region and announced plans to beef up 
fencing in the Northeast section with double-layer barbed 
wire on concrete posts, with the 14-yard gap between the 
barbed wire filled with concertina coils, similar to the 
Indo-Pak border on the Western Sector.  The BSF was also 
reportedly considering electrification of the fencing in the 
"busiest" sections in Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya.  Soon 
after the incident, however, the Calcutta-based "Telegraph" 
reported that Home Minister Shivraj Patil suspended erection 
of fences within 150 yards of the international border.  In 
212 contentious patches, villages sit along the border, and 
if fenced over 150 yards away, 62,000 Indians on the 
Bangladeshi side would be fenced out.  According to the 
Indian media, Bangladesh has objected to fencing so near the 
border, citing the 1975 Indo-Bangladesh Border guidelines 
that prohibit either country from building "defensive 
structures" within 150 yards.  GOI officials claim the fence 
is "not a defensive border" and assert that it is Delhi's 
sovereign right to build the fence. 
 
GOI Policy 
---------- 
9.  (C) In a recent meeting, MEA Director for Bangladesh, Sri 
Lanka and the Maldives TS Sandhu stressed to Poloff that the 
GOI had a "clear policy of trying to engage Bangladesh." 
Noting that "if India and Pakistan are engaging, then why not 
Bangladesh," he said the concern was to engage the leadership 
rather than try to "fence them in."  He argued that 
engagement was most important on the economic side, 
especially regarding gas, an area where the GOI has "made 
efforts to give Dhaka economic concessions."  PM Manmohan 
Singh repeated this emphasis on diplomacy over punishment 
when he recently responded to complaints of a "soft policy" 
saying that "If Bangladesh is not friendly, it does not mean 
that India should use a big stick again them" and that "New 
Delhi decided to go the diplomatic route."  Semu Bhatt of the 
Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group agreed with this 
approach, commenting that it was the responsibility of the 
larger, more influential country not to use its power to 
escalate the situation. 
 
Criticism From All Sides 
------------------------ 
 
10.  (C) India-based experts assert that GOI engagement with 
Bangladesh has been slim, and that India does not have an 
effective, developed strategy to deal with its neighbor, and 
offer a variety of reasons why.  Dr. Rajesh Kharat, professor 
at the University of Mumbai, bluntly called Bangladesh 
India's "soft corner," saying that India has "no proactive 
policy" because they have been "too concerned with Pakistan 
and Nepal to care."  Rashid Alvi, a young Muslim MP from 
Uttar Pradesh, complained that "Bangladesh is nothing" and 
yet when incidents arise, the "GOI can't do anything other 
than call the embassy."  He added that India is "bound to be 
soft" because West Bengal has a significant Muslim 
population, which opposes stronger action against Bangladesh. 
 Dr. Prakash Singh, who led the BSF on this border for many 
years, observed that border incidents continue because of 
Delhi's "weak government."  Terrorism hawk Ajai Sahni, 
speculated that the GOI may be soft because it fears "the 
Awami League (AL) would suffer from anti-Indian rhetoric" and 
a policy that hurts AL electoral chances is not in Delhi's 
self-interest. 
 
11.  (C) While Delhi-based analysts have been ringing the 
alarm bells and criticizing GOI policy, few have offered 
solutions.  If the entire border were fenced off, many 
experts believe this would slow the flow of migrants but not 
solve India's Bangladesh woes.  Much of the migration to 
India occurs at existing legal transit points facilitated by 
bribes on both sides of the border, and would therefore be 
unaffected by greater fencing.  Anil Dutta from the 
Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation pointed out that 
many Bangladeshis illegally cross over the Bramaputra and 
Meghna rivers along the border.  The GOI has constructed a 
floating border post, but it has not been permitted to come 
down the river.  Sahni observed that a continuous border 
would "significantly slow" the number of migrants and that 
putting off the fencing in these areas is the "classical 
policy of appeasement" towards Bangladesh.  He urged the GOI 
to take a "stronger line on Bangladesh," characterizing GOI 
policy as "weaning away problems with Bangladesh through 
economics and aid," which is "oversimplified and not 
working".  He recommends that India "devise a series of 
coercive strategies that will force the GOB to adhere to 
minimal norms of international conduct" such as undermining 
the Bangladesh economy, isolating it internationally, 
responding to incidents with immediate and harsh punitive 
action and hardening India's military posture. 
 
Chances To Improve Ties 
----------------------- 
 
12.  (C) Responding to the negative report cards, MEA's 
Sandhu acknowledged to Poloff that the GOI has noted public 
concern for a more proactive policy and agreed to the first 
meeting in two years between the Foreign Secretaries, likely 
to take place on June 20-21.  In addition to the fencing 
predicament and the need to discuss illegal immigration, the 
"Telegraph" recently expected Delhi to raise cooperation on 
Northeast insurgents in Bangladesh.  Bodiruzzaman suggested 
that Dhaka will raise the idea of Coordinated Patrolling on 
the border to decrease tension.  However, Pallavi Mutalik, a 
researcher at the Strategic Foresight Group, thought that 
"distrust on both sides runs too high for this to be a viable 
solution." 
 
13.  (C) The GOI cancellation of the February SAARC meeting 
was a response to both the coup in Nepal and the security 
situation in Bangladesh (Reftel).  Bodiruzzaman indicated 
that this characterization caused further strain on the 
relationship, but that the GOB welcomes the meeting, 
tentatively expected this fall.  The GOB proposed two sets of 
dates in September and November, with India agreeing to 
November 13-14.  Bodiruzzaman remarked that it was "very 
funny" that India has now agreed to the meeting, noting that 
neither the "security situation in Bangladesh nor the coup in 
Nepal has improved."  Instead it is a sign that the GOI sees 
the SAARC meetings as a much needed chance to improve ties 
with its neighbors.  Sandhu agreed that "security concerns 
had not all been addressed" but that the GOI "didn't want to 
stand in the way of SAARC." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) GOI policy towards Dhaka has been a tough balancing 
act, exacerbated by the MEA's focus on Pakistan and Nepal. 
Although the GOI does need to step up engagment, a more 
punitive response, as suggested by hardliners, could be 
counterproductive.  GOI officials  worry that if their 
measures are too harsh, they could contribute to a "failed 
state," which would only increase migration into India and 
provide more room for insurgent groups to train on 
Bangladeshi soil.  While New Delhi dithers, many Indians 
along the border are organizing and pushing suspected 
migrants out of the country -- with no apparent 
repercussions. 
 
15.  (C) Our Delhi-based interlocuters are increasingly 
concerned about governance issues in Bangladesh, and consider 
this an area where India and the US might usefully cooperate 
on policy.  They stress, however, that the GOB is very 
sensitive to being "pushed around" by Washington, which would 
provoke heightened anti-US rhetoric, which is often linked 
with anti-Indian rhetoric, especially in the run up to 2006 
elections.  As India is forced to focus more attention on 
Bangladesh, the USG may have an opportunity to use the model 
of our cooperation with Nepal and work with the GOI to try 
and counter the security concerns coming from this important 
neighbor. 
 
16.  (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Calcutta. 
BLAKE