US embassy cable - 05ABUJA1024

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001024 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: REGIME STABILITY QUESTIONED BY RECENT INCIDENTS 
 
REF: 04 ABUJA 1885 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D). 
 
1.  (S)  SUMMARY:  Joseph Wayas, the chairman of the 
political committee at the National Conference on Political 
Reform (Confab), avoided an apparent assassination attempt on 
June 3 and has been absent from the Confab since the 
incident.  President Obasanjo apparently collapsed twice on 
June 7, sparking rumors of his death and vehement denials 
from the GON.  These two events highlight continuing concerns 
about security throughout the country. 
 
2.  (C)  Joseph Wayas, Chairman of the Political Committee at 
the National Conference on Political Reform (Confab), avoided 
an apparent assassination attempt on June 3 when he did not 
return to his office after the Confab closed.  According to 
his personal assistant, a "group" of thugs forced their way 
into his office shortly before he was due to return.  One of 
Wayas' friends told Poloff that the group had apparently been 
observing Wayas for over a week and that Wayas decided at the 
last minute to return to his residence rather than stopping 
at his office.  The gang was characterized as "assassins" by 
his PA. 
 
3.  (C)  Wayas has not attended the Confab since the incident 
and has been avoiding many of its members.  According to one, 
the Political Committee has been looking for him this week to 
iron out their recommendations to the Confab before it closes 
late this month. 
 
3.  (C)  COMMENT:  Wayas, a former Senate President, has been 
critical of the Confab of late, especially on the handling of 
the draft constitution that appeared late during term of the 
conference.  This draft, attributed to President Obasanjo and 
his advisers Professor Jerry Gana and Ojo Maduekwe, is 
believed to represent Obasanjo's preferred constitution 
moving towards the 2007 elections.  Standing up to the PDP 
has proved dangerous in the past (reftel) and Wayas' 
avoidance of the conference is believed to be an indication 
of his concern about his own health.  END COMMENT. 
 
4.  (S)  In an unrelated incident, rumors of the death of 
President Obasanjo swirled through the country on June 7. 
Beginning before daybreak, the word spread from North to 
South by the end of the day.  The concern about his health 
was apparently triggered by two incidents the same day. 
According to Obasanjo's steward, Obasanjo collapsed in the 
early morning hours.  At about the same time, according to a 
presidential orderly, an emergency call came from the 
Presidential Villa to the State House Clinic for "oxygen" and 
an ambulance.  The steward claims that Obasanjo collapsed 
again at about 1300 hrs local just before a meeting with the 
Kogi State Governor.  This time, the steward says that they 
revived him one time but he was unable to stand.  He then 
collapsed and, according to another source, was unconscious 
for about two hours. 
 
5.  (C)  According to one of the Kogi Governor's aides, the 
group never met with Obasanjo throughout the day, but was 
hopeful of meeting today.  A foreign diplomat claims that he 
met with Obasanjo on June 8 and that he "appeared well."  The 
diplomat also reported that Obasanjo is leaving for London 
almost immediately for "consultations and speeches," 
coincidentally the location of his preferred private 
physician. 
 
6.  (C)  Presidential spokesperson Remi Oyo was on network 
television and radio on the evening of June 7 stating that 
the President was in good health and had kept all his 
appointments for the day.  According to one contact who saw 
the broadcast, she appeared "nervous or shaken" and did not 
give her usual "composed delivery."  The print media on June 
8 was plastered with several articles denying the "vicious 
rumor of the President's ill-health" and providing 
testimonials of the President's "great stamina." 
 
7.  (S)  COMMENT:  It appears that something happened to 
Obasanjo on June 7 and that he actually did collapse once, if 
not twice.  A similar story made the rounds in December, when 
many claimed that he collapsed unconscious at his Otta Farm 
in Ogun State.  These two incidents indicate that Obasanjo, 
who claims to be 68 but many think is closer to 75 years old, 
may have a health problem, although we have no indication 
what ailment it might be.  The speed of the rumors, and the 
attack on Wayas highlights a different, perhaps more serious 
issue:  regime fragility.  Continued physical and personal 
attacks on Obasanjo's opponents and the lack of security 
throughout the country point to the dangers present to the 
GON in the near future.  The speed with which the rumors of 
his death (and the glee they generated in some quarters) only 
reinforces the fact that at least some in Nigeria stand to 
gain from the demise of Obasanjo and the regime.  END 
COMMENT. 
CAMPBELL