US embassy cable - 02ABUJA2267

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002267 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: 07/29/12 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SOCI, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: METHODIST ARCHBISHOP TOUTS OBASANJO -- 
THE PRESIDENT WILL WIN! 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason 1.5 (B) 
and (D). 
 
 
1. Summary: (C) During a July 5 meeting with Ambassador 
Jeter, Methodist Archbishop Sunday Mbang felt Obasanjo was 
performing well and would win reelection. One of Nigeria's 
most influential clerics, Mbang attributed much of the 
criticism levied at the President to Obasanjo's clamping 
down on corruption and politics as usual. Mbang predicted 
former Head of State Babangida would be attacked heavily by 
pro-democracy and human rights groups should he join the 
presidential race. Mbang also downplayed the Southeast's 
clamor for an Igbo President as premature, believing the 
Igbos have not yet been fully rehabilitated politically 
since the end of the Biafran civil war. Co-chairman of the 
Inter-Religious Council, Mbang asserted the Council had 
successfully prevented communal violence in many areas and 
that the group would focus more attention on discouraging 
electoral violence. End Summary 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
NIGERIAN POLITICS -- A MURKY GAME 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) During a July 5 visit with Ambassador Jeter at 
AmConsul Lagos, Archbishop Mbang stated he had predicted 
the political situation would be tumultuous because of the 
gross overreacting and overreaching by civilian politicians 
were out of control because they lacked responsibility. 
Civilian politicians were engaged in a no-holds barred 
contest to gain office or to keep it. Mbang recalled 
recently walking into the VIP lounge in the Abuja airport, 
the lounge crowded with politicians and government 
officials. Taking advantage of this impromptu and captive 
congregation, Mbang gave the briefest of sermonettes 
culminating with his asking the group why they sought or 
held public office. Still tongues and evasive eyes were the 
collective reply, he said. The cause of Nigeria's current 
muddle was that its political class was absorbed by an 
ideology of self-interest, not the collective good, Mbang 
stressed. 
 
 
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OBASANJO BETTER THAN THE REST 
----------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) Mbang believed Obasanjo was performing well given 
the dysfunctional system he inherited and the strong 
resistance of politicians to meaningful reform. He cited 
liberalization of the telecom sector, road construction, 
slow but steady progress improving the electrical grid, and 
the fight against corruption as real, albeit still 
unfinished, Obasanjo accomplishments.  Mbang believed 
Obasanjo deserved four more years to complete his work and 
consolidate democracy.  Moreover, most educated Nigerians 
felt the same way. However, Mbang acknowledged Obasanjo was 
having serious problems in his own party to the extent that 
recapturing the party nomination was not certain. Many of 
Obasanjo's own Cabinet Ministers have been heard muttering 
that " Baba has to go, he does not let us chop." (Chop is 
local slang for engaging in corrupt practices.) 
 
 
4. (C) Drawing attention to the electoral map, Mbang 
stated: 
 
 
-- Northwest: Obasanjo would lose here because the region's 
leadership was angered the President had closed the spigot, 
stifling avenues of corruption and cut them off from 
accustomed but unlawful revenue. 
 
 
--Northeast: Retaining Vice President Atiku as his running 
mate would help Obasanjo win the Northeast and adjoining 
areas. 
 
 
--Middle Belt: Most Christians in this zone would support 
Obasanjo.  Mbang mentioned receiving a delegation of 
influential Middle Belt and Northern Christians who backed 
Obasanjo, stating he needed four more years to consolidate 
democracy . An unknown question is whether Vice President 
Atiku's close ties to the populous Tiv would secure 
significant Tiv support notwithstanding last October's 
massacre of civilians in Benue State by army soldiers. 
 
 
--Southeast: Mbang thought this region still might vote for 
Obasanjo, the determining factor being who emerged as 
Obasanjo's chief opponent. 
 
 
-- South-South: Support hinged on resolution of the oil 
revenue allocation issue. Mbang felt Obasanjo has made 
headway judging from recent positive comments by Awka Ibom 
Governor Victor Attah whose state was the most adversely 
affected by the Supreme Court ruling on the oil revenue. 
--Southwest: Will vote for Obasanjo en masse, Mbang 
believed. 
 
 
5. (C) The Archbishop thought former Head of State 
Babangida (IBB) would be reluctant to run.  Babangida erred 
by failing to appear before the Oputa Panel, Nigeria's 
Truth & Reconciliation Commission that looked into past 
military governments' human rights practices. IBB 
compounded the mistake by seeking a court injunction 
against government implementation of the Panel's 
recommendations for a criminal investigation into the 
unsolved murder of journalist Dele Giwa which happened 
during Babangida's tenure. IBB's attempts to stymie the 
investigation confirmed suspicions of him held by many 
Nigerians.  If Babangida thrusts himself into the contest, 
Mbang said that he will be hounded by questions about Giwa 
and other human rights abuses that IBB would rather not 
have to answer.  Regarding the other Northern former 
military Head of State seeking the presidency, Muhammadu 
Buhari, Mbang discounted him as a religious chauvinist 
whose appeal was strictly limited to the North. 
 
 
6. (C) The Archbishop contended that attempts by the 
President's foes to field a Southeast/Northwest 
Presidential ticket would not reach fruition. The Southeast 
has not been fully rehabilitated politically, he claimed. 
People in many other parts of the country would suspect 
that an Igbo would use the Presidency to unjustly enrich 
his region or as a platform for succession.  Moreover, he 
doubted that a credible Northerner would play second fiddle 
to an Igbo President. Flipping the ticket to a 
Northwest/Southeast combination would still pose problems, 
Mbang indicated.  Most other sections of the country would 
rail against the return of national leadership to the 
Northwest after only four years. 
 
 
7. (C) The Archbishop implied the high political anxiety 
Nigeria was experiencing was because the outcome of the 
election would determine the balance of power between 
Nigeria's geopolitical regions for years to come.  He 
claimed the North looked askance at INEC's voter 
registration plans and was petrified by the proposal to 
implement a national identification card.  The North has 
inflated its population for years but with the use of 
photographic identification opportunities to cheat would be 
reduced. Mbang also noted the North was not as monolithic 
as in past; more people were beginning to think 
independently, breaking the grip of traditional rulers and 
the political elite. The Arewa Consultative Forum, which 
has vociferously opposed Obasanjo and the national identity 
card, was attempting to maintain the old order but would 
fail, he believed. 
 
 
8. (C) Regarding the military, Mbang said the Oputa Panel 
did the country a great service by exposing the military's 
dirty linen for all to see. Not only has the gloss 
disappeared, but the military has been placed in a very bad 
light. With its stature diminished, the military would be 
very hesitant to return to politics. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
THE INTER-RELIGIOUS COUNCIL -- DOING GOOD WORK 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
 
9.  (C) Co-Chairman of the Council along with the Sultan of 
Sokoto, Mbang emphasized that the group was working well. 
The Council was the brainchild of Obasanjo's pastor, 
Reverend Yusuf Obaje. Formed in response to growing 
communal violence, the Council's purpose is to promote 
understanding and tolerance.  He noted that the Council had 
developed an early warning system, alerting members to 
areas of tension in the country.  This enabled the group to 
engage in preventive diplomacy that has defused many 
potentially violent situations. Mbang stated that many 
religious clashes could be avoided but for the baseness of 
local politicians who used religion to garner support, 
particularly in the North.  He recalled the Council 
stepping in to cool a hot situation when a local government 
chairman in Kano tried to demolish a church although the 
structure had a proper building permit. 
 
 
10. (C) Mbang refuted conventional wisdom that religion was 
at the root of most of Nigeria's communal violence.  More 
often, the violence was due to fighting over scarce local 
resources or local political power between different ethnic 
groups. The rival ethnic groups sometimes tend to be 
predominantly of different religions.  When this occurs, 
outside observers resort to the facile explanation of 
"religious violence" to describe what essentially is 
localized economic or political competition. 
 
 
11.  (C) Given the increasing electoral violence, Mbang 
said the Inter-Religious Council will devote more attention 
to the problem of elections as the campaign season 
progresses.  While acknowledging that more violence and 
confusion are in the offing, he was optimistic that Nigeria 
would "muddle through."  Mbang cited the Abacha years as a 
blessing in disguise.  Although the political game in 
Nigeria has few rules, politicians now realize how far they 
can go before reaching the edge. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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12. (C) Mbang is clearly a man of conscience; that 
conscience is decidedly Christian and Southern in its 
outlook. For instance, he may be a little too dismissive of 
the traditional Northern elite as a spent force. Projection 
of his sense of individual morality on other Christians in 
the South may also lead him to believe that Babangida can 
be easily harnessed; a belief most other observers do not 
share.  Nevertheless, Mbang is an astute observer of the 
scene and is well informed.  His views reflect an important 
segment of thought among Southerners and Christians in 
Nigeria, and, because of his position and his personal 
stature, Mbang's view will also influence many Nigerians. 
 
 
JETER