US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI4315

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004315 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, IN, PK, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: ADVANI'S RESIGNATION - WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 4270 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 4232 
 
Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The turmoil surrounding Advani's dramatic 
June 7 resignation as BJP President continues.  The BJP 
leadership meeting June 8 voted unanimously for him to 
remain, while the Sangh Parivar (family of Hindu nationalist 
groups) spent the day celebrating his resignation and 
anticipating his departure.  In our view, Advani made this 
move deliberately, having decided that the party must change 
direction, renounce Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) and move to 
the political center.  He took a major gamble to preserve his 
chances of becoming Prime Minister, but failed to rally the 
hard-line Sangh Parivar wing of the party around him, which 
is intent on returning the BJP to a Hindutva stance.  There 
will be no quick resolution to the conflict between the Sangh 
and the modernizers.  With the BJP immersed in inner turmoil, 
possibly for months to come, Congress and its allies have no 
serious obstacle to secure their hold on power.  End Summary. 
 
Fastbreaking Developments 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) New Delhi has been engulfed in political drama since 
LK Advani submitted his resignation as BJP Party President on 
June 7. 
 
--The Press has confirmed that Advani drafted his resignation 
letter while still in Karachi and was fully aware that his 
statements would likely lead to the loss of his position as 
BJP President. 
 
--When he arrived at the airport in India, Advani was asked 
to sign a statement clarifying that his views as expressed in 
Pakistan were "dictated by protocol" and "did not indicate a 
change in policy."  He refused to sign. 
 
--It is not clear whether Advani will be able to hold onto 
his position as leader of the opposition in Parliament. 
Former FonMin Yashwant Sinha urged the BJP to consider 
whether he should be replaced in that position as well, which 
may embolden other Advani detractors to join in. 
 
--With the exception of the Hindu nationalist Shiv Sena, the 
BJP allies in the NDA expressed support for Advani and urged 
him to withdraw his resignation. 
 
--Former Prime Minister Vajpayee also supported his longtime 
confidant, saying that he agreed with Advani's controversial 
remarks regarding Pakistani founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah 
(Reftel B). 
 
--The hard-line Hindutva VHP celebrated Advani's departure, 
praising the move as cleansing the party of deadwood and 
clearing the way for "younger" leadership. 
 
--In Gujarat, BJP workers clashed with celebrating VHP 
supporters.  Police broke up the fight and arrested 20 VHP 
workers. 
 
--Although the RSS leaders and rank and file are pleased with 
Advani's departure, the leadership took a more moderate 
public stance, commenting that it was an "internal matter" of 
the party. 
 
--The BJP leadership met in New Delhi on June 8 and passed a 
unanimous resolution rejecting Advani's resignation and 
delegating senior leaders to meet with him and persuade him 
to stay on. 
 
--The resolution made no mention of Advani's Jinnah remarks, 
while Vajpayee told reporters the issue can be discussed 
later. 
 
--There is some speculation that Advani could accept the BJP 
leadership's offer and withdraw his resignation, but most 
observers are convinced he will not. 
 
--Attention has begun to focus on the succession.  Most 
expect the BJP to name an interim president for approximately 
one month, with the moderates favoring former BJP President 
Venkaiah Naidu and the Sangh Parivar the doctrinaire RSS 
ideologue Ram Manohar Joshi. 
 
--Staking his position as the favorite of the moderates, 
Naidu expressed "strong disapproval" of the "totally 
objectionable language" used by VHP leader Pravin Togadia to 
criticize Advani (he used the word "traitor"). 
 
Two Camps 
--------- 
 
3.  (C) The BJP/NDA has now split into two predictable camps, 
with the NDA's secular allies and BJP moderates supporting 
Advani and calling for him to remain as party President and 
the Sangh Parivar welcoming his departure and pressing for 
one of their own to be named to succeed him.  Vajpayee has 
demonstrated that he still considers Advani his protege, 
convincing others within the party to also back him.  The 
gulf between these two groups has grown so wide and so deep 
that it will be difficult for the party to maintain cohesion. 
 All eyes will be on who is named as the next Party 
President.  Whoever ascends to the position, the other camp 
will be embittered and alienated. 
 
Ideological Consequences 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Advani's public remarks in Pakistan hit hard at basic 
planks of Hindutva.  He has rejected the RSS insistence on an 
Akhand Bharat (United India) that would include Pakistan, 
instead urging Indians to come to terms with the partition of 
India and respect Pakistan's borders and sovereignty.  By 
describing the occasion of the destruction of the Babri 
Mosque in 1992 as "the saddest day of my life," Advani 
rejected the Sangh Parivar's preaching of hatred against 
Islam and Muslims.  By praising Jinnah as a "secular" leader 
and a "great man," Advani tried to bury the RSS 
villainization of Pakistan's founder and urged Indians to 
adopt a more objective view of the events surrounding 
partition.  By taking these stances, Advani has burned his 
bridges with the Sangh Parivar and staked out new ground as a 
moderate and modern leader willing to move forward into 
uncharted territory. 
 
5.  (C) Advani clearly intended to move his party away from 
Hindutva, which he has apparently concluded is no longer a 
viable political option.  Most Delhi-based political 
observers agree that this was a calculated "gamble," which 
could have far-reaching consequences for the BJP and the 
Sangh Parivar. 
 
Why Did He Do It? 
----------------- 
 
6.  (C) In conversation with Poloff on June 7, Congress Party 
Secretary Manish Tewari speculated that Advani had concluded 
 
SIPDIS 
that he needed to make a dramatic gesture to gain political 
momentum and preserve his chances of becoming Prime Minister. 
 Advani has already been Deputy Prime Minister and can only 
aspire to the top position.  He may have concluded that he 
must make a dramatic move to the center or face political 
oblivion.  Advani has been hounded for the past year by the 
Sangh Parivar and may have wanted to put the group in its 
place by resigning and then compelling the party to ask him 
back.  Tewari theorized that Vajpayee and Advani could have 
mapped out the entire strategy prior to his trip to Pakistan. 
 Vajpayee submitted his resignation in 2004 under similar 
circumstances and all factions of the party united behind him 
and asked him to remain. 
 
7.  (C) It is clear that Advani's remarks in Pakistan were 
not spontaneous or "off the cuff."  He was not overcome by 
emotion at returning to the land of his birth and youth. 
Advani is too much the politician for that.  This lends 
credence to the musings of Tewari and others.  It appears 
Advani hoped a dramatic gesture would enable him to lead the 
BJP to the center, reinforce the NDA coalition, replace 
Vajpayee as the grand statesman of the BJP, and contest 
upcoming elections from a position of strength with hopes of 
defeating the UPA. 
 
8.  (C) If this was indeed Advani's intention, developments 
have not gone according to plan.  Advani seemed genuinely 
disappointed by the vitriolic criticism of Hindu hard-liners 
and the reluctance of the BJP to spring to his defense.  The 
ecstatic celebration of his departure by the Sangh Parivar 
indicates that it feels that it has asserted its power and 
demonstrated that it will get its way.  Advani will be unable 
to retract his resignation without appearing humbled and 
contrite.  He may have calculated that he could sacrifice the 
Party President's job and use his position as leader of the 
opposition to counter his opponents in a more protracted 
battle.  Should his enemies become emboldened to demand his 
resignation from that position as well, he would be facing a 
more serious fight.  It is too early to count Advani out, but 
he could be facing the fight of his life in the months ahead. 
 
 
What Happens Next? 
------------------ 
 
9.  (C) The BJP has been in decline since its electoral 
defeat in May 2004.  Advani's resignation has increased the 
division and bitterness within a deeply divided party.  The 
Sangh Parivar is determined to demonstrate that it can 
dictate to the BJP and will fight to ensure that it hand 
picks the next President.  Were Joshi to be selected 
"interim" party President, it would indicate that the Sangh 
Parivar has prevailed.  It would then move to ensure that the 
BJP chooses its candidate for the "permanent" Party 
President.  Most commentators agree that the RSS is 
determined to get its way, and that even if Naidu or another 
moderate is named to the post, he/she will have to follow RSS 
dictates or face the ire of the hardliners.  This could 
herald a return to Hindutva, which would isolate the BJP's 
NDA allies and BJP moderates.  Such a move would result in 
the BJP's further decline and more losses at the polls and 
could break up the NDA as secular allies leave the alliance. 
 
10.  (C) This was reflected in the statements of BJP leaders, 
like Vinay Katiyar, who noted that "Advani's resignation will 
further disintegrate the party.  It will deepen the crisis in 
the party."  BJP National Executive Member Seshadri Chari 
opined that "the resignation will worsen the image of the 
already disintegrating party," complaining that "the timing 
could not have been worse."  By joining forces with Advani, 
former PM Vajpayee rebuffed his mentors in the RSS, and 
displayed to the nation how deep the divisions run within the 
BJP. 
 
11.  (C) Should Advani and Vajpayee decide to take on the 
Sangh Parivar, they will face a hard battle without a quick 
victory and may well fail.  The resulting conflict could 
consume the BJP for months to come, allowing Congress and its 
UPA allies to fill the resulting political vacuum and cement 
their hold on power. 
 
Excesses of the Press 
--------------------- 
 
12.  (C) The BJP has relied upon press manipulation and drama 
to score points with India's middle class.  This tendency may 
yet come to haunt it.  The Indian media have overplayed and 
overdramatized Advani's resignation, constricting his 
options.  BJP politicians have played to the media, resulting 
in frenzied and hysterical statements.  This has allowed 
Congress to play it cool and assume the role of the dignified 
and statesmanlike party.  Advani's resignation has benefited 
Congress at the BJP's expense. 
BLAKE