US embassy cable - 05DHAKA2666

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 002666 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, BG, BGD Elections 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION KEEPS DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE 
POLITICAL PROCESS 
 
REF: DHAKA 02610 
 
Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reason para 1.4 d. 
 
 1. (C) Summary.  The Awami League is systematically opting 
out of the political process, a high-risk strategy that could 
severely limit its options at election time.  End Summary. 
 
Opting Out 
---------- 
 
2. (C) Thus far in 2005, the opposition Awami League has 
decided to: 
 
A) Boycott by-elections, even in traditionally strong AL 
constituencies, to underscore its rejection of the BDG and 
the existing electoral system.  Following the BNP's 
uncontested victory for the seat held by the assassinated 
Shah Kibria, 54 local AL activists resigned in protest. 
 
B) Boycott the entire budget session starting June 8.  During 
the AL's previous boycott of parliament, senior leaders had 
returned for budget day to denounce the BDG.  AL MPs, but not 
Sheikh Hasina, had fitfully attended Parliament since June. 
 
C) Reverse its earlier decision to accept and fill its 
allotment of the new reserved seats for women in Parliament. 
 
D) Demand far-reaching changes in the caretaker and electoral 
systems, focusing on political consensus for key appointments 
and the transfer of presidential powers to the caretaker 
chief. 
 
E) Reject the appointment of the new Chief Election 
Commissioner, mostly on the principle that the BDG failed to 
consult with it. 
 
F) Return, after a lull in the second half of 2004, to 
hartals/general strikes as its principal means of political 
protest.  Since January, the AL has held 11 nationwide 
hartals, including one for its slain Dhaka City legal 
secretary, even though he is generally considered to have 
 
SIPDIS 
been the victim of an intra-party feud. 
 
The AL's Case 
------------- 
 
3. (C) The AL insists that the BDG is well on its way to 
rigging the national election, and that the AL incumbent in 
the Chittagong mayoral election won only because AL people 
power in the streets in front of city hall foiled a BNP 
attempt to hijack the vote count.  On June 8, AL SYG Abdul 
Jalil told us that Chittagong had no national implications 
because AL leaders would be stretched too thinly to monitor 
and marshal popular resistance to irregularities.  He took 
the point that the national election would be the most 
observed, domestically and internationally, election in 
Bangladeshi history. 
 
4. (C) Jalil defended the boycott of the budget session by 
saying that the AL's participation would legitimize the BDG's 
"illegal action" of raising fuel prices several days ago in 
advance of the budget.  He reiterated AL charges that the BNP 
bars the AL from speaking in parliament, thereby leaving the 
AL with no alternative to hartals.  He rejected the 
appointment of the new Chief Election Commissioner, Justice 
Aziz, because he was a BNP supporter and the BDG ignored "the 
will of the country" by not consulting with opposition 
parties.  He denied that the AL was effectively opting out of 
the political process, asserting that the AL is the most 
committed party to democracy in Bangladesh. 
 
5. (C) Asked about reports of recurring contacts between the 
AL and dissident leaders of IOJ, the extremist Islamist 
member of the ruling coalition, to encourage them to join the 
opposition, Jalil paused and then said: "This is a small 
country.  It's only natural that we meet them at social 
functions."  He denied, however, that the AL would 
contemplate political partnership with Islamist extremists. 
He downplayed recent squabbles between Jamaat Islami and IOJ 
elements, predicting that at the end of the day IOJ would 
remain in the coalition despite its failure to get cabinet 
representation. 
 
6. (C) Turning to the soap opera involving Jatiya Party 
President Ershad and his now former junior wife Bidisha 
(reftel), Jalil said that Ershad's shabby and inept handling 
of the affair had seriously undermined the party's position 
in northern Bangladesh.  (Note: We have heard similar 
assessments elsewhere.  With dissatisfaction there reportedly 
rising over increased prices for fuel and other essentials, 
it is ironic that the AL might be the beneficiary of Ershad's 
PMO-induced fall.) 
7. (C) Regarding the June 4 defection to the BNP of AL MP 
Kazi Sirajul Islam, Jalil said that a tearful Islam, a big 
businessman from Hasina's home area of Faridpur, had met with 
Hasina the day beforehand to explain that BNP people had told 
him the BDG would pay the substantial funds owed to him by 
several BDG entities only if Islam joined the BNP.  Jalil 
agreed to provide us with copies of Islam's unpaid BDG bills. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) The AL is systematically opting out of the political 
process, sometimes on some pretty flimsy grounds, but its 
concerns about BNP hardball politics are well placed. 
Central to the AL's hard-line stance is the insistence that 
the BNP nearly stole the Chittagong election -- an allegation 
that the former and new chief election commissioners have 
denied to us with some credibility (septel).  There is 
growing danger that the AL's confrontationist actions, 
including its line in the sand on electoral reforms, will end 
up severely constraining the AL's flexibility at election 
time and push it towards a potentially disastrous boycott. 
THOMAS