US embassy cable - 05ANKARA3177

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003177 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PINS, PBTS, SY, TU, SYRIA 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA AND MILITARY ON SYRIAN MISSILE LAUNCH 
 
(U) Classified by Polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: E.O. 
12958, 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Despite a blase official statement and 
light media coverage, Turkish MFA official says privately 
that the MFA considers as "serious" Syria's May 27 missile 
launch that resulted in one missile going astray over Turkey 
and scattering debris.  MFA is not satisfied with the Syrian 
explanation of the incident and is awaiting a report from the 
Turkish military before deciding what further reaction to 
recommend to FM Gul.  End Summary. 
 
MFA Calls in Syrian Ambassador, Issues Blase Statement 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2.  (U) The Turkish MFA called in the Syrian Ambassador on 
May 27 and again on May 30 regarding Syria's May 27 missile 
launch that scattered debris in Turkey.  The MFA issued a 
blase statement on May 28 noting that debris had fallen on 
Turkish territory, and the Syrian Embassy attributed the 
incident to an "individual mistake" occurring during a 
"training exercise" and apologized. 
 
3.  (C) However, according to MFA Middle East Department Head 
Bozay, the Syrian Embassy's first response to the MFA was to 
deny Syria had anything to do with the missile.  Their second 
response was that only one missile was launched.  The third 
time, the Syrians came clean, admitted to three launches, and 
apologized.  Turkey is keeping open its right to claim 
compensation for the incident, although Bozay doubts there 
will be any compensable damage. 
 
4.  (U) Coverage of the incident in the Turkish media, much 
of which is intimidated by or beholden to the AKP government, 
has been light.  There was no op-ed commentary on the 
incident until June 7, when mass circulation daily "Sabah" 
columnist Erdal Safak remarked how odd it was that Turkey 
calmly accepted the Syrian apology.  He noted that this would 
not have been the reaction had the incident involved Greece. 
Safak, normally writing with an anti-American edge, concluded 
his column with an unusually sympathetic assessment of the 
U.S. stance: "The U.S. is certainly not wrong to be wary of 
Ankara's relations with Damascus." 
 
MFA "Not Satisfied" with Syrian Explanation 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) According to Bozay, the MFA is "not satisfied" with 
the Syrian explanation.  The MFA is awaiting a Turkish 
military investigation into technical details of the launch, 
including the type of missile involved and its exact flight 
path over Turkey.  Asked what the political consequences of 
the incident will be, Bozay said the MFA recommendation to FM 
Gul will depend on the results of the military's 
investigation.  However, Bozay several times characterized 
the event as "serious" and said it damaged Turkish 
"confidence" in the SARG. 
 
Military Reaction 
----------------- 
 
6.  (S) TGS/J5 Strategy Chief MG Cengiz Arslan told 
PolMilCouns on June 2 that, while he does not have direct 
responsibility for the incident (Turkish military 
intelligence has the lead), he understood the Syrians had 
made a mistake.  That said, the headquarters was buzzing with 
activity the afternoon of the launch.  Several explanations 
were examined and rejected a deliberate provocation, the 
beginning of a military coups, etc.  Arslan said TGS 
concluded it was an accident.  No one they approached in 
Damascus initially knew of the incident because, he said, the 
unit that had fired the missile was afraid to report that 
they made a mistake.  When PolMilCouns pressed how such a 
significant mistake could occur, Arslan said he had had an 
artillery unit under his command that had ended up aiming in 
the wrong direction because someone forgot to add 180 degrees 
to the formula used in calculating trajectories.  He surmised 
that a Syrian unit could make the same mistake, intending to 
fire southeast instead of northwest. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) PM Erdogan, FonMin Gul, and the AKP government's chief 
foreign policy advisor Davutoglu firmly defended the AKP 
government's pro-Assad line to a series of Codels the week of 
May 30.  However, the Syrian missile incident has given room 
to some who question the wisdom of AKP's policy to break 
through the wall against criticism that AKP has tried to 
build in front of the Turkish media. 
MOORE