US embassy cable - 05PARIS3937

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - EUROPE: REFERENDA FALLOUT, 
2012 OLYMPICS SYRIA: BAATHIST PARTY CONGRESS - 
IRAN: JUNE 17 ELECTIONS 
PARIS - TUESDAY, JUNE 07, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
EUROPE: REFERENDA FALLOUT, 2012 OLYMPICS 
SYRIA: BAATHIST PARTY CONGRESS 
IRAN: JUNE 17 ELECTIONS 
 
(B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
THE BRITISH DECISION TO POSTPONE THE REFERENDUM IN THE UK 
DOMINATES A NUMBER OF HEADLINES AND RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO 
CARRIES A COLOR PHOTOGRAPH OF A DEMONSTRATOR HOLDING A SIGN 
THAT READS "THANK YOU FRANCE, THANK YOU HOLLAND." LEFT-OF- 
CENTER LIBERATION CLAIMS "LONDON IS THROWING IN THE TOWEL" AND 
QUALIFIES TONY BLAIR AS A "LUKEWARM AMBASSADOR FOR THE EU" 
WHILE COMMUNIST L'HUMANITE STATES THAT THE EU CONSTITUTION HAS 
BECOME A "HOT POTATO." COMMENTARIES ABOUND ON THE OLYMPIC 
COMMITTEE'S LOOMING DECISION BETWEEN PARIS AND LONDON TO HOST 
THE 2012 GAMES. (SEE PART C) 
 
THE BAATHIST PARTY CONGRESS IN DAMASCUS IS WIDELY REPORTED AND 
GENERALLY VIEWED AS "DISAPPOINTING," PROMPTING AN ANALYSIS OF 
THE PROGRESS OF THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST IN 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO. COMMUNIST L'HUMANITE HEADLINES 
"SYRIA: AT A STANDSTILL." (SEE PART C) 
 
THE JUNE 17 ELECTIONS IN IRAN ARE NOT YET A PRINCIPAL FOCUS OF 
THE INTERNATIONAL STORIES IN THE FRENCH DAILY PRESS, BUT RIGHT- 
OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES A REPORT FROM TEHERAN ANALYZING 
THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES' DESIRE TO PURSUE IRAN'S NUCLEAR 
PROGRAM. (SEE PART C) 
 
TWO AMERICAN THINKERS, PHILIP GORDON OF THE BOOKINGS INSTITUTE 
AND JEREMY RIFKIN, OF THE FOUNDATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS PEN OP- 
EDS TRANSLATED FOR LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE AND LEFT-OF-CENTER 
LIBERATION RESPECTIVELY. BOTH PIECES REACT TO THE FRENCH "NO" 
ON THE EU CONSTITUTION. GORDON POINTS OUT THAT THE APPOINTMENT 
OF DE VILLEPIN AS PRIME MINISTER EFFECTIVELY DOES AWAY WITH 
ANY HOPE THE AMERICANS MAY HAVE HAD TO SEE A CHANGE IN FRENCH 
FOREIGN POLICY. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
EUROPE: REFERENDA FALLOUT, 2012 OLYMPICS 
 
"PARIS-LONDON: THE FACE-OFF" 
THE EDITORIAL BY YVES THREARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO 
(06/07): "JACQUES CHIRAC'S FRANCE OR TONY BLAIR'S GREAT 
BRITAIN? THE DISCUSSION OVER THE SOUNDNESS OF EACH COUNTRY'S 
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY HEATED. WITH THE TWO 
COUNTRIES IN A RACE TO HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE WITHIN THE EU. 
NOW THE OLYMPIC COMMITTEE HAS PARED DOWN ITS CHOICE FOR THE 
2012 GAMES TO PARIS AND LONDON. FOR 2012, IF THE EURO- 
SKEPTICISM OF THE FRENCH IS A NEGATIVE POINT FOR PARIS, GREAT 
BRITAIN'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR IN IRAQ COULD BE A HANDICAP 
FOR LONDON.. THE CHOICE BETWEEN PARIS AND LONDON WILL NOT BE 
INSIGNIFICANT FOR THE DIPLOMATIC FUTURE OF THE TWO COUNTRIES." 
 
"ENGLAND STRUTTING THROUGH A EUROPEAN CRISIS" 
FRANCOISE CROUIGNEAU WRITES IN ECONOMIC DAILY LES ECHOS 
(06/07): "THE ANNOUNCEMENT TO POSTPONE THE REFERENDUM IN THE 
UK IS A WAY FOR THE BRITISH TO AVOID LOOKING LIKE THE 
GRAVEDIGGERS OF THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION AND TO DELAY ITS 
OFFICIAL, AND COLLECTIVE, BURIAL UNTIL THE EU SUMMIT IN MID- 
JUNE. THIS MANEUVER IS ESPECIALLY AN EFFECTIVE WAY FOR TONY 
BLAIR TO KEEP HIS HANDS FREE AS THE UK TAKES ON THE PRESIDENCY 
OF THE EU. THE CRISIS IN EUROPE OFFERS TONY BLAIR THE PERFECT 
OPPORTUNITY TO ACHIEVE A DREAM THAT IS AT LEAST AS GRAND AS 
HIS AMBITIONS: TO BECOME THE LEADER OF A UNION REWORKED 
ACCORDING TO HIS OWN IDEALS. NONETHELESS, THE GOING WILL NOT 
BE EASY. REINFORCING THE TRANSATLANTIC TIES WILL BE, AT THE 
LEAST, DIFFICULT FOR TONY BLAIR WHO IS STILL SUFFERING AS A 
RESULT OF HIS INVOLVEMENT IN THE WAR ON IRAQ. TODAY IN 
WASHINGTON HE WILL BE ABLE TO EVALUATE THE VARIOUS BONES OF 
CONTENTION, FRIENDLY BUT REAL, BETWEEN HIMSELF AND GEORGE 
BUSH, NAMELY CONCERNING AID TO AFRICA, AN ISSUE THAT HE DOES 
NOT INTEND TO LEAVE IN THE HANDS OF JACQUES CHIRAC DURING THE 
UPCOMING G8 SUMMIT." 
SYRIA: BAATHIST PARTY CONGRESS 
"THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE ARAB WORLD IN A RUT" 
PIERRE PRIER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (06/07): "TWO 
SPECTERS HAUNT THE ARAB WORLD, ISLAMISM AND DEMOCRACY. THE 
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES PRETEND TO BE AFRAID OF THE FORMER WHILE 
THEY TRULY APPREHEND THE LATTER. AMERICAN PRESSURE, POPULAR 
IMPATIENCE, ECONOMIC FAILURES, ALL PUSH THE MOST ARCHAIC OF 
REGIMES TO DISCUSS REFORMS. EVEN IN SYRIA WHERE A CONGRESS OF 
THE CENTRALIZED POWER HAS SUDDENLY BEEN ORGANIZED FOR THE 
FIRST TIME IN FIVE YEARS. BACKSTAGE IN DAMASCUS, GOVERNMENT 
CIRCLES SUSPECT THAT PRESIDENT BUSH IS ENCOURAGING THE EXILED 
SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERS IN ORDER TO CREATE A "SUNNI BALANCE." 
AFTER HAVING ESTABLISHED THE SHIITES IN POWER IN IRAQ, THE 
U.S. IS PLOTTING TO FACILITATE THE VICTORY OF THE MAJORITY 
SYRIAN SUNNIS OVER THE ALLAWIT MINORITY IN POWER. THIS LEADS 
ARAB COMMENTATORS TO NOTE "THE AMERICANS ARE PLAYING WITH 
FIRE. THEY ARE SECRETLY NEGOTIATING WITH ISLAMISTS. THEY DO 
NOT REALIZE WHO THESE PEOPLE REALLY ARE." 
 
"A CONGRESS UNDER PRESSURE FOR THE BAATHISTS" 
PIERRE BARBANCEY COMMENTS FROM DAMASCUS FOR COMMUNIST 
L'HUMANITE (06/07): "IT WOULD BE A EUPHEMISM TO SAY THAT 
DAMASCUS IS UNDER PRESSURE, BUT IT WOULD ALSO BE MISGUIDED TO 
THINK THAT THE PRESSURE IN ONLY COMING FROM THE OUTSIDE, OR 
THAT THE ALMOST DAILY AMERICAN DECLARATIONS AGAINST SYRIA ARE 
BEHIND THE PRECIPITOUS ORGANIZATION OF THE BAATHIST PARTY 
CONGRESS. IN FACT, INTERNAL TENSIONS COMPOUNDED WITH EXTERNAL 
PRESSURE ARE BEHIND THIS CONGRESS, A SIGN THAT THE SYRIAN 
REGIME IS BEGINNING TO BE RATTLED. BACHAR EL ASSAD'S ENTIRE 
STRATEGY CONSISTS IN GIVING WASHINGTON SMALL SIGNS OF GOODWILL 
IN ORDER NOT TO LOSE POWER ALTOGETHER." 
 
 
IRAN: JUNE 17 ELECTIONS/NUCLEAR PROGRAM 
 
"IN TEHERAN THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES DEFEND NUCLEAR 
TECHNOLOGY" 
DELPHINE MINOUI FROM TEHERAN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO 
(06/07): "IF THERE IS ONE SUBJECT ON WHICH ALL EIGHT 
CANDIDATES FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AGREE IT IS THE 
NUCLEAR ISSUE, THEY CONSIDER THAT A `STRONG IRAN' IS AN IRAN 
THAT PURSUES ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. THE REAL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 
THE CANDIDATES LIES IN THOSE WHO SUPPORT THE TRADITIONAL 
PRECEPTS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND THOSE WHO ENCOURAGE 
RENEWED DISCUSSIONS WITH THE U.S.. ALL OF THIS BODES OF 
INTERMINABLE DISCUSSIONS WITH EUROPE AND FURTHER PRESSURE FROM 
WASHINGTON. WHICH REMAINS CONVINCED OF IRAN'S INSINCERITY." 
WOLFF